Follow me... J10s UTG+1

Very loose 0.5/1 table.

Party Poker (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO folds, SB calls, BB calls.

I figure I have 15 outs. Open-ended str and 4-card flush draw. I raised figuring I already have two callers, plus because the table it so loose that there is a chance someone may call my 2-bets for which they most likely would not hvae the odds for (I believe this is called protecting your hand).

Turn: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

I bet out, trying to lead the hand. I reraise figuring I'll see the river with 2 opponents.

River: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero...

My river action is obvious. How'd I do? Comments? Suggestions?


PS: How do I have the converter show pot size?

[numeri]

Turn is bad. You're obviously not guaranteed 2 callers and you don't even have the equity with those 2.

[Vote4Pedro]

I'm not a fan of the turn 3bet....everything else looks standard

[hemstock]

Whats hero's equity on the turn?

[Vote4Pedro]

I'm not good with numbers and %'s, but its not high enough to justify a 3bet when its HU

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats hero's equity on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Call it 13 or 14 outs (discounted for the Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif and 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif), so it's around 25-30%. Oh, wait, was I not supposed to answer?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not good with numbers and %'s, but its not high enough to justify a 3bet when its HU

[/ QUOTE ]

What I think hemstock is trying to socractic-method out of you is that on the turn we're a little better than 2:1 to have better than jack-high by showdown. So for any sort of +EV we'd need all 3 guys to call, which probably doesn't happen often enough. So we should take the free card.

It would be nice to fold a higher jack, but IMO they're out there rarely enough to check it behind.

[hemstock]

No I really don't know :P
You're not drunk are you my friend?

Equity for the draw is ~32% (15 outs)

[hemstock]

[ QUOTE ]
Equity for the draw is ~32% (15 outs)

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you calculate this?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Equity for the draw is ~32% (15 outs)

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you calculate this?

[/ QUOTE ]

15outs to the best hand/46 total cards

edit: I don't understand what you're getting at here?

15 outs is 2.1 to 1 to make it on the next street.

Take the first number, add one and divide 1 by it...

1 /(2.1+1) = 0.32

EDIT: Err, Redd's way is easier...

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Equity for the draw is ~32% (15 outs)

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you calculate this?

[/ QUOTE ]
15 outs, 46 unseen cards: 15/46 = 32.6%

Looks like a standard SSH many-out juice to me. I only wonder what to do on that river with the pot so big. I guess c/f is the only option...

flop was played correctly, but i think you can definitely give yourself more than 15 outs with respect to your overcards. aint sure how much they are worth but it sure isnt zero.

check/call turn

river i dunno

[Weatherhead03]

I wouldnt three bet the turn. Just call the raise or even better might be check call. As you played there is no chance you are winning that river..fold.

[MrWookie47]

If you really want to be lazy, your equity (assuming you're behind and drawing) is roughly equal to the number of outs you have times 2 if you're at the turn, or times 4 if you're at the flop.

15 * 2 = 30%. Real answer, 32%

A flush draw on the flop: 9 * 4 = 36%. Real answer, 35%.

Not bad, eh?

Alright this is probably similar advice you have been given, but here it goes.

The flop was great, you have a equity advantage and you need to push it whenever you can. I don't think raising is protecting your hand here as much as it is raising for value because of your pot equity edge. True you might buy outs to your over cards, but the bet is correct more so because you are going to take that pot down over 50% of the time, and against 3-5 callers this is pretty profitable.

The turn bet was fine, you still might have a slight equity advantage if get all four to call, and the tiny chance of them all folding helps out. But, you said they were loose so lunchmoney players calling with overcards is common, not to mention someone else is probably at least paired up and ahead you. Honestly, the whether to bet out or check the turn is a close call, not big enough to make a impact on your expectation.

However, when facing the turn bet you must call here. (Unless you have seen this player raise the turn as a bluff at times. But still you should usually call.) Even if you get lucky enough to see the river with 2 opponents it is still a break even play at best, and calling would still have the same expectation is you happen to be lucky enough to take the SB to the river.

The river is pretty cut and dry, you have nothing and if your opponent was bold enough to raise and then call you on the turn with a hand worse than you, pray he does not leave your table. CHECK FOLD!

These kind of hands can be tuff to handel at time, because you know that you have a great draw. But always keep the expectation of your decisions in mind. You only made an error worth .7 of a BB, but the player whom win the most money are those whom minimize their errors when they can.

All else but the turn three bet was great.

Awesome! Thanks everyone.