Pokerstars $15+1 AK on the Bubble.... Too Weak?

[Eric Draven]

I don't know... This felt really weak, but I didn't want to get in the way of 2 other big stacks playing aginst each other.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB (t4140)
Hero (t4660)
UTG (t1625)
Button (t3075)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold</font>, Button raises to t800</font>, SB calls t700, 1 fold</font>.

I think it depends on reads of villians really. But at the end of the day, you only have A-high here. A folds not too weak IMO. Also depends if you're going for the win, or for the money. But if villians have been fairly aggro, and not ultra tight - I might push all-in here, if they both fold you've gathered a nice 1500 chips and if you get called you're unlikely to be in an awful shape.

[jedinite]

Getting 3-1 pot odds (T1800 pot, T600 to call) with my chipstack I think i'd consider calling, honestly.

I hate flat calling on the bubble, but I think we have a rare opportunity here to play some postflop poker. If you whiff the flop you've still got a 2.5-1 lead on the shorty, and if you connect you could stack an opponent who likely won't put you on AK, leaving you in great shape for the finish.

I don't see how you can fold here.

Push ? yes. it's only A-high but what an A-high. If you get called they won't be too pleased to see your hand. I don't see anyone here being particularly married to their hand. It's a 16 so you might get looked up if you push but somehow I can't see it.

Else call and play poker. That's the game isn't it ?


PS I trust you flashed your cards when you folded./images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
I think it depends on reads of villians really. <font color="red"> But at the end of the day, you only have A-high here.</font> A folds not too weak IMO. Also depends if you're going for the win, or for the money. But if villians have been fairly aggro, and not ultra tight - I might push all-in here, if they both fold you've gathered a nice 1500 chips and if you get called you're unlikely to be in an awful shape.

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="black"> </font> It ain't the end of the day until the River's dealt. The only hands they can have that are going to make you go home crying to your mom are AA and KK. I say push.

[bawcerelli]

you've got them covered. go ahead and push.

[valenzuela]

arggghhh, u missed the chance to made beautiful, cruel, malicious, evil push thats +EV. /images/graemlins/mad.gif
Look you have them covered and there a short stack who folded,Im supposing even a moron can fold in this spot.
Even if the idiot calls you , you have AK...not perfect but oh well.( im supposing he has a PP)

[tewall]

Playing around with the Indpendent Chip Model Calculater and the Poker Calculator mentioned in the FAQ, I came up with the following results:
1)If you fold, you can expect about 30% of the payout.
2)If you call, you can expect about 32% of the payout.
3)If you go all-in, you can expect about 39% of the payout.

I was on the conservative side with 2) and 3), so both of these amounts should understate the actual results. If anyone's interested in the assumptions I made, let me know, and I'll post them.