$55, JJ early, gets reraised from the blind

[redrooski24]

No reads. I think with the stacks I have some odds for purely set value. If I call, am I playing purely for a set?(theoretically, if he pushes an 8 high flop I'm folding?). A read really would have helped here I feel.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

BB (t960)
UTG (t880)
UTG+1 (t773)
UTG+2 (t1220)
MP1 (t830)
MP2 (t500)
Hero (t1190)
CO (t1272)
Button (t1005)
SB (t1370)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t250</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero?

[eniven]

Without a read, I think I would fold here.

If you did call and a Q, K or A flops, what then? If you did call, you'd surely be playing for set value.

It's a tough one...Im thinking villain has somewhere between 99-QQ and is trying to buy the pot so that his PP doesn't get beat by an ace or king on the flop. I can't image KK or AA pricing a lone competitor out before the flop when they could possibly get a flop continuation bet out of you.

[eniven]

That's a good point about KK and AA there...

really tough to know where you stand on this one.

Personally, this early in the tourney, I like to err on the side of caution.

[pineapple888]

You might be on to something here because his re-raise wasn't big enough.

Call another 160 with the potential to win 2400 if you stack him? Yeah, looks like it's worth a shot. No set, no bet, though.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a tough one...Im thinking villain has somewhere between 99-QQ and is trying to buy the pot so that his PP doesn't get beat by an ace or king on the flop. I can't image KK or AA pricing a lone competitor out before the flop when they could possibly get a flop continuation bet out of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not priced out. That's OP's point.

You also want might to expand your imagination for how good players will play AA here. Just as an example... oh, I don't know... they might not want to price in a lower pair drawing to a set.

You have position on him. I would normally call the t160 raise, and then reevaluate on the flop based on his action.

[Paul Thomson]

I really don't think set value comes into play here. You will hit a set 1 out of 8 times and thus don't have the pot odds to be drawing to a set. And a reraise out of position shows serious strength and unless he sucks then he's probably beating you right now. Now he overbet the pot which does suggest that he probably sucks. But if he knows that you're a smart player then an over-bet we'll look like a steal and he hopes that you'll come back over the top of him. I could see laying KK this way. Given that it's early in the tournament, I'd fold.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
You will hit a set 1 out of 8.5 times and thus may have the implied pot odds to draw to a set, since you may be able to win villain's entire stack .

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You will hit a set or better 1 out of 8.5 times and thus may have the implied pot odds to draw to a set, since you may be able to win villain's entire stack .

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

FYFYP, minor nit. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

7.5-1 (aka 1 in 8.5) to flop a set or better (full house, quads, includes unfavorable full houses), 8.28 to 1 to flop exactly a set.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You will hit a set or better 1 out of 8.5 times and thus may have the implied pot odds to draw to a set, since you may be able to win villain's entire stack .

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

FYFYP, minor nit. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

7.5-1 (aka 1 in 8.5) to flop a set or better (full house, quads, includes unfavorable full houses), 8.28 to 1 to flop exactly a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I never said "exactly" a set.

[redrooski24]

I called with my relatively good odds(about 2:1) and was pretty sure my implied odds were through the roof since I was 95% sure I was stacking him on a J high flop. Flop came T high and he pushed all in, and after thinking for a little, folded. If villain's stack is shallower I would fold here since I don't feel I would be getting good enough implied odds. To those who said you would fold PF, why? 160 to win 1400 is way more than I need. Plus gamb00ling early is fun.

[Pete H]

[ QUOTE ]
To those who said you would fold PF, why? 160 to win 1400 is way more than I need.

[/ QUOTE ]

160 to win 1400 is barely enough if you stack him every time you hit a set or better, but that won't happen.

Sometimes you won't get paid and sometimes you'll hit your set and lose all your chips.

Most of the time I follow the general rule of thumb and don't call for more than 10% of my (or villains stack) to hit my set.

In this hand I'd probably call preflop, because his reraise screams for AA/KK and he'll most likely double you up if you hit your Jack.

NP: Kayser - Noble Is Your Blood

[patrick dicaprio]

he is raising you 160 so that is what it costs you to win a pot of over 350. how can you fold JJ here?? unless he can only have AA, KK or AK here it is an easy call getting over 2-1 and he has to have a wider range of hands. i am not too happy about three betting here but there is enough of a chnace you are ahead that you have to call at least. unless there is no chance he has AQ or a smaller pair, which with some players is possible or even likely. but given that you are first in in late posn he has to think there is a chance you are stealing, hence an easy call in my book.

Pat

Pat