Double Gutshot - Friend, Foe or Fold

[Shorty35]

Stars $22+R. About 50 left - cash gets interesting at about 5 and up.

Villan has been pretty tight; I have been reasonable; but I have sucked out on him (KT vs AA /images/graemlins/grin.gif) once before.

I actually think that I am behind villan's range here, but not by much.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

saw flop|[color=#C00000]saw showdown</font>

[color=#C00000]BB (t28312)</font>
UTG (t70378)
UTG+1 (t22589)
MP1 (t31892)
MP2 (t32823)
CO (t31890)
Button (t65129)
[color=#C00000]Hero (t23056)</font>

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
[color=#666666]5 folds</font>, Button calls t1600, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t4525) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
Hero checks, [color=#CC3333]BB bets t5500</font>, Button folds, [color=#CC3333]Hero ?

In tournaments only...

I'm not going to pay a big price for any draw (gutter, double gut, or naked flush). However, in this spot I think you need to bet out into the field.

Your against a late posistion limper and a blind hand. I think you may have the best hand with Q high... an if you bet out you have some strong fold equity.

If you were planning to call a be on the flop... i like a straight out bet here.

If you get raised... you're probably against top pair weak kickie... and may even want to come over the top for all your chips. Or you can just fold and live to fight another day.

I think check call is the weakest option here.

[Shorty35]

I agree call is bad. It's either checkraise or fold.

OOP betting into both the BB and Button seems fraught with danger. What's your plan if you are raised (which I think is likely)?

[ QUOTE ]
I agree call is bad. It's either checkraise or fold.

OOP betting into both the BB and Button seems fraught with danger. What's your plan if you are raised (which I think is likely)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Decision time... depends on stack size... if we are both deep... I probably re-raise all in... even if he has a set or two pair.... I can win about 30% of the time.

More likely he folds to the added resistance.

I would push. Pre-flop I would be more worried about the limper, but since the BB's bet made him fold, I really am not that scared of what the BB has. I *might* even have him beat with the queen high. Either way, I think the semi-bluff push is the right move.

-Gross

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree call is bad. It's either checkraise or fold.

OOP betting into both the BB and Button seems fraught with danger. What's your plan if you are raised (which I think is likely)?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, c/r a-i. you likely have an extra overcard out if you do get called, and there's a pretty high chance you're not getting called.

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree call is bad. It's either checkraise or fold.

OOP betting into both the BB and Button seems fraught with danger. What's your plan if you are raised (which I think is likely)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Decision time... depends on stack size... if we are both deep... I probably re-raise all in... even if he has a set or two pair.... I can win about 30% of the time.

More likely he folds to the added resistance.

[/ QUOTE ]

given how much villan has in the pot after a reraise; I dont see how he could find a fold with something like bottom pair if I 3 bet him. Seems to me that the only fold equity against bottom or middle pair is with a c/r on the flop.

Am I the only one who likes to fold here? He completely destroyed your odds of drawing to the straight and you have no clue whether your Q is good enough. Him overbetting the pot could mean anything from a bluff to TPWK and an aggresively played monster due to the straight- and flushdraws around. I, for one, wouldn't want to risk my tournament on a double gutshot with one overcard.

You said he was pretty tight. Had Villain made plays like this before and gotten away with it? Did he fold to a push when he made a big bet? Did he fold a pair (top or 2nd) earlier to a push? I like to know these things before I start thinking about the right play.

Fold and pick a better spot...

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree call is bad. It's either checkraise or fold.

OOP betting into both the BB and Button seems fraught with danger. What's your plan if you are raised (which I think is likely)?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, c/r a-i. you likely have an extra overcard out if you do get called, and there's a pretty high chance you're not getting called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I agree - the pot size bet tells me he doesnt have the str8, but I was pretty sure that he had a pair. I figured that the c/r gets a fold from just about any pair that doesnt also have a str8 or flush working for it. If that assumption is correct, then c/r is defnintely better than fold (which also has its merits given that I was pretty sure I was behind).

Hero c/r all in and Villan calls. Villan showed T7 (about the strongest hand I could imagine making this bet) and I ended up on the wrong end of a 60/40 matchup.

[woodguy]

I like a c/r all in here.

I always try to put in the last raise for a substantial amount so they have to react to me, and they don't have great odds.

Leading out here will lead to either playing a draw OOP or having to fold to a raise.

He limped PF so there is no reason to suspect he has a monster, or something he can't let go of.

If you c/r all in he will have to call 16K into a 31.5K pot, or 2:1, which is the best you can do here.

WIth that nice folding equity (hopefully) and 8 outs with a backdoor flush draw, I'm happy.

After posting you have 13.5BB's, so I'd make an all in or fold decision on the flop, you cannot afford to spew chips here only to have to fold later in the hand and leave yourself short.

His overbet seems to indicate he doesn't like the drawish flop, but I'm not sold that it means he calls off 2/3 of his stack for it.

Folding the flop is ok, 13.5BB is a workable stack.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a c/r all in here.

I always try to put in the last raise for a substantial amount so they have to react to me, and they don't have great odds.

Leading out here will lead to either playing a draw OOP or having to fold to a raise.

He limped PF so there is no reason to suspect he has a monster, or something he can't let go of.

If you c/r all in he will have to call 16K into a 31.5K pot, or 2:1, which is the best you can do here.

WIth that nice folding equity (hopefully) and 8 outs with a backdoor flush draw, I'm happy.

After posting you have 13.5BB's, so I'd make an all in or fold decision on the flop, you cannot afford to spew chips here only to have to fold later in the hand and leave yourself short.

His overbet seems to indicate he doesn't like the drawish flop, but I'm not sold that it means he calls off 2/3 of his stack for it.

Folding the flop is ok, 13.5BB is a workable stack.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

You fail to address the hard part; which you seem so good at. How do you make the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif fall next? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Roman]

Mooooooo