View Full Version : Bubble hand with 10s on the button($55)
redrooski24
11-08-2005, 06:02 AM
I'm not much of an ICM guy but this one seemed like a fold. I've really been struggling with my bubble play recently(getting stupidly aggro against big stacks) and am just trying to make sure I'm back on the right track.
***** Hand History for Game 3001580306 *****
200/400 TOURNEY TEXAS HOLD'EM GAME TABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 17235757) - TUE NOV 08 04:31:16 EST 2005
Table Table 67017 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: SMELLY_FISH (1370)
Seat 2: glibglub (3875)
Seat 5: krasni24 (2415)
Seat 6: LowBillMill (2340)
LowBillMill posts small blind (100)
SMELLY_FISH posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to krasni24 [ Td, Ts ]
glibglub raises (600) to 600
krasni24 folds.
LowBillMill folds.
SMELLY_FISH folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 900
SMELLY_FISH balance 1170, lost 200 (folded)
glibglub balance 4175, bet 600, collected 900, net +300
krasni24 balance 2415, didn't bet (folded)
LowBillMill balance 2240, lost 100 (folded)
Also, how do I get hands I dig up from PT to work in the hand converter? Thanks.
HesseJam
11-08-2005, 06:14 AM
These are exactly the situations I have to analyze more with SNGPT! I do not have it here at work.
I guess, barring any screaming reads, it's a fold.
tigerite
11-08-2005, 06:16 AM
I'd at the very least call. You should have a fair bit of FE here if you push too. Depends on reads, though. But TT on the bubble is huge and the small stack still has 6bb, so is nowhere near out of it yet.
redrooski24
11-08-2005, 06:18 AM
What's this SNGPT people are always talking about here? Some PT addon or what?
HesseJam
11-08-2005, 06:20 AM
Wait, he did not push! So, he could fold on a push! Not very likely but still possible. I think this makes it very read dependent (does he usuall know what he is doing?, does he seem to know about when it is better to push than to bet?). It might be a push, after all.
HesseJam
11-08-2005, 06:23 AM
SitnGo Power Tools. You need to buy it from Eastbay. It's on the pricy side but well worth it (provided you really use it to study scenarios /images/graemlins/smirk.gif).
tigerite
11-08-2005, 06:24 AM
Sure if he open pushed I'd probably fold.. that would be a no-brainer. I would say he needs to fold around 25% of the time given his likely range - but that's a guesstimate and I'll do the maths properly later.
Yep. I push on the assumption that he will fold >50% of the time. Which would make me the new chipleader and able to bully bully bully.
Obviously if he open pushed this is an easy fold.
just so im clear on this situation....a fold would be better than a call here...i understand that calling here just to fold to an undesirable flop would be very bad...but i just cant get over the fact i might have the best hand here a lot more than i dont.....
Pricey side?
It's about 1.2 buyins.
HesseJam
11-08-2005, 07:42 AM
Yeah, yeah. Compared to PT or to HoH I+II it is pricey. But I well understand why it has to be a bit more (because it is not a mass product).
SNGPT isn't so helpful in this situation if you want to calculate the +$EV. You don't know how often the big stack will call if you push.
[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT isn't so helpful in this situation if you want to calculate the +$EV. You don't know how often the big stack will call if you push.
[/ QUOTE ]
That's easy. Just work out the scenario for a variety of situations, varying the percentage of times that you are called and the quality of hands that you would be called with. I did this yesterday for someone asking me about pushing middle pairs in EP and I actually ended up working numbers for a variety of paired holdings at the same time. There's a point where the play will become -EV based on a calling frequency and the hands you would expect villain to call with. That's when your ability to read players comes into play and knowing what that player would open raise with as well as whether or not you think his range fits into one of the +EV models.
But you're right, PokerStove is better suited for this type of analysis.
I took the liberty of running some analyses based on villain calling with the top 10% of hands. From there you can vary villains range and use similar calcs making sure to account for the different equity values against a different calling range.
Versus the top 10% of hands (88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo)TT is a favorite 52:48.
There is 900 in the pot and hero has 1170 behind. When villain folds, hero wins 900. When villain calls, hero stands to win 2070 or lose 1170.
80:20 fold/call
Villain folds you win .80*900=720
Villain calls and you win .104*2070=215.28
Villain calls and you lose .096*1170=112.32
Total EV of +822.96
50:50 fold/call
Villain folds you win .50*900=450
Villain calls and you win .26*2070=538.20
Villain calls and you lose .24*1170=280.8
Total EV of +707.40
20:80 fold/call
.20*900=180
.416*2070=861.12
.384*1170=449.28
Total EV of +591.84
This basically tells me that if you think villain will call with the top 10% of hands that a push is absolutely correct here and expects to be a winner on average. If you tighten up villains calling range the caclulations change slightly against TT however the EV calculations still make this a clear push due to the fact that it becomes less likely for villain to be holding one of those premium hands and thus you should probably weigh a fold higher than a call in that case.
If there's anything here that I'm missing or failing to consider please point it out as these types of calculations are still fairly new to me. Scary thought - I enjoy doing this for my own benefit as much as everyone elses.
More than anything I make this move because a win here is almost sure to get me deeper into the final 3 and I'm already the short stack at the table. I need chips and TT is a strong hand to push all in and hope to take down the pot. I want first here. If I lose there's another STT starting up any second.
Nice post.
I'm much too lazy to go over your calculations but you came up with the result that pushing is +EV so my guess is that they're good. Also if you put this much effort into understanding these types of situations it is for sure +EV for you game overall.
To the OP - without a read telling me otherwise I push without seriously even considering any other options. I put the raiser on a wide range and expect him to fold and if he calls I'm not ashamed of my TT.
tigerite
11-08-2005, 12:06 PM
There is one problem, his calculations seem to use chipEV.
Hornacek
11-08-2005, 12:14 PM
Um... this is a borderline push or fold. It totally depends on the quality of play from your opponents. If they're rocks, you're going to have to win a coinflip sooner or later, so shove this junk in.
Otherwise, if you think you can get a more dominant position within an orbit, fold, and get ready to play super aggro.
tigerite
11-08-2005, 12:28 PM
It certainly is borderline. I'd need a read to push.
[ QUOTE ]
There is one problem, his calculations seem to use chipEV.
[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, just noticed I replied to someone referring specifically to $EV and not cEV. I just saw the reference to not using SNGPT and ran with it.
tigerite
11-08-2005, 01:15 PM
cEV is very far from optimal on the bubble though. I can do the ranges for $EV, but not here. Will have to wait til I get home from work.
bigt439
11-08-2005, 01:15 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not much of an ICM guy ... AND I've really been struggling with my bubble play recently
[/ QUOTE ]
These are directly related.
I push here all day. I think this guy folds ALOT. You have a lot of chips, he's not going to have a wild calling range and I think he makes this open with a lot of hands. TT isn't completely terrible against his calling range either because he has AK almost as much as an overpair, maybe AQ in there if he sucks.
Pushing > Folding > Calling IMO
tigerite
11-08-2005, 01:16 PM
If he has AK or AQ, you definitely do not want him to call, this should be drummed into you by now.
[ QUOTE ]
If he has AK or AQ, you definitely do not want him to call, this should be drummed into you by now.
[/ QUOTE ]
If you play scared of 32 total hand combos you will literally need to wait for AA or KK to push preflop, so are you saying that you should push on average once every 2 STTs (~1.9% of the time)? This is a big pair and hero is shortstacked. I don't see this as close but would love to see the math that says otherwise.
bigt439
11-08-2005, 01:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If he has AK or AQ, you definitely do not want him to call, this should be drummed into you by now.
[/ QUOTE ]
Come on. You have to give me more credit than that.
I'm talking about how we size up against his range if he calls. I never said we wanted him too.
bigt439
11-08-2005, 01:39 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he has AK or AQ, you definitely do not want him to call, this should be drummed into you by now.
[/ QUOTE ]
If you play scared of 32 total hand combos you will literally need to wait for AA or KK to push preflop, so are you saying that you should push on average once every 2 STTs (~1.9% of the time)? This is a big pair and hero is shortstacked. I don't see this as close but would love to see the math that says otherwise.
[/ QUOTE ]
Your logic blows.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he has AK or AQ, you definitely do not want him to call, this should be drummed into you by now.
[/ QUOTE ]
If you play scared of 32 total hand combos you will literally need to wait for AA or KK to push preflop, so are you saying that you should push on average once every 2 STTs (~1.9% of the time)? This is a big pair and hero is shortstacked. I don't see this as close but would love to see the math that says otherwise.
[/ QUOTE ]
Your logic blows.
[/ QUOTE ]
While I'm always open to mature discussion, debate or even heated discussions I'd hope that it's at least constructive. Thanks for stating your opinion. Any reasons that you'd like to post for this and make it a real discussion instead of a 3rd grade schoolyard argument?
bigt439
11-08-2005, 01:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he has AK or AQ, you definitely do not want him to call, this should be drummed into you by now.
[/ QUOTE ]
If you play scared of 32 total hand combos you will literally need to wait for AA or KK to push preflop, so are you saying that you should push on average once every 2 STTs (~1.9% of the time)? This is a big pair and hero is shortstacked. I don't see this as close but would love to see the math that says otherwise.
[/ QUOTE ]
Your logic blows.
[/ QUOTE ]
While I'm always open to mature discussion, debate or even heated discussions I'd hope that it's at least constructive. Thanks for stating your opinion. Any reasons that you'd like to post for this and make it a real discussion instead of a 3rd grade schoolyard argument?
[/ QUOTE ]
This is stuff you need to sort out on your own dude. I'm not going to explain why it's ridiculous to take what tigerite said and then equate it to "you're saying push every 2 sng's".
bruce
11-08-2005, 01:51 PM
I seldom post here, but I play lots of SNG's.
From my perspective I have to ask myself do I want to maximize my chances of winning or am I trying to make the money.
Me personally I always play to come in first place. For me this is an easy push. You're playing four handed, the big stack raises and you have a premium hand. I think the likelyhood that he has an inferior hand is very great. Also
nobody has pointed out how many times villian will call with
a smaller pocket pair or Ace small kicker and hero doubles up. Plus by pushing we still do have quite a bit of fold equity.
Bruce
bigt439
11-08-2005, 01:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
From my perspective I have to ask myself how do I maximize my ROI / hourly rate.
[/ QUOTE ]
Personal preference should have virtually nothing to do with this unless you get into some complex analysis of where your edges lie.
[ QUOTE ]
This is stuff you need to sort out on your own dude. I'm not going to explain why it's ridiculous to take what tigerite said and then equate it to "you're saying push every 2 sng's".
[/ QUOTE ]
Of course I understand what tigerite said. I can easily look over and see both of your post counts and see that you're probably well versed and know what you're talking about too. Perhaps my comments are a bit extreme, but then again so is playing scared of specifically those 2 hands.
I personally think that it is wrong to play scared of 32 hand combos with TT and 3BB 4-handed. You're actually scared of overpairs too but 4-handed I'm discounting those possibilities a little more (but not completely). With 3BB and TT 4-way I'm not thinking twice about my move unless someone pushes in front of me, and even then I might call depending on what I know about that player. I'm hoping AK or AQ calls and misses, too, as I'll take a 55:45 flip in this situation to either have a good shot at first or start up a new game. My chances don't look that good with 3BB and this is a great shot to steal the blinds or double up.
If my thinking is completely off here please feel free to explain. I'm mostly a MTT player and still have a small STT sample size, and I'm always looking to learn something from those with more experience than me.
microbet
11-08-2005, 02:08 PM
A read might help a bit, but you have a standard raise from the big stack and it is very important here that small stack is nowhere near dead (as tigerite pointed out). Push.
tigerite
11-08-2005, 02:51 PM
Read up about ICM and then come back to me. You'll see why if he has AK here and calls it's terrible for you, the same goes for AQ, KQ and hell even AJ, KJ, QJ.
redrooski24
11-08-2005, 02:53 PM
Well at least this hand generated some good discussion. I thought it was really close and I moved the cursor over to push and then I realized that I didn't think too much of my competition and could just go ultra aggro as I have been when the big stack wasn't in the blinds. Maybe I'm tightening up too much on the bubble now since I've been busting out in a lot of situations similar to this one. If lets say, the small stack had ~900 chips and/or I had 3k chips, does this become a clear fold?
tigerite
11-08-2005, 02:54 PM
Yes that's very different, your equity preflop is much higher.
Vee Quiva
11-08-2005, 05:12 PM
According to the earlier math on Chip EV and then using ICM to convert to $EV I got the following.
With original raiser playing top 10% of hands:
80% Fold 20% call
$EV goes up .0023
With 50% fold
$EV goes down -.0053
I think the raising range is a little tight so I tried the top 20% of hands. Then 10-10 is a winner 61% of the time.
Fold 80% Call 20%
$EV goes up .0342
Fold 50%
$EV goes up .0116
So in conclusion, the looser the standards for the original raiser, the better idea it is to push. The more likely the original raiser is to call the reraise, the worse your decision is.
I think I would normally reraise all in unless I had a really strong read that the original raiser is extremely tight.
Jason Strasser
11-09-2005, 04:54 AM
The big stack open raises 4-handed and you fcking fold TT?
Are you nuts?
You should be pushing all sorts of stuff here. You have tons of folding equity. If this post was:
"I was dealt 29o" instead of TT in this hand, I'd say, "This is a great spot to resteal". Now you have the added bonus of having a strong fighting chance against many of the hands he might call the all in with.
This fold is just terrible.
-Jason
bennies
11-09-2005, 05:01 AM
[ QUOTE ]
The big stack open raises 4-handed and you fcking fold TT?
Are you nuts?
You should be pushing all sorts of stuff here. You have tons of folding equity. If this post was:
"I was dealt 29o" instead of TT in this hand, I'd say, "This is a great spot to resteal". Now you have the added bonus of having a strong fighting chance against many of the hands he might call the all in with.
This fold is just terrible.
-Jason
[/ QUOTE ]
hehehe. Nice post, it's /images/graemlins/cool.gif when someone lays down the law...
Is it wrong to wait to see what happens to the short stack before you start risking all your chips? The short stack only has 5-6 BB. Even if he doubles up, you would still have a slight chip lead over him. If the short stack busts or doubles up from the other middle stack, you're good for the money. On the bubble, I like to see that at least one of the bigger stacks is pressuring the short stack in his blinds.
bennies
11-09-2005, 05:17 AM
It's my (read "Strassa's") opinion that the shorties are not short enough to play scared.
raptor517
11-09-2005, 05:21 AM
i cant believe you folded that. auto freakin shove. holla
Jason Strasser
11-09-2005, 07:26 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Is it wrong to wait to see what happens to the short stack before you start risking all your chips? The short stack only has 5-6 BB.
[/ QUOTE ]
This type of thinking makes sngs so beatable.
tigerite
11-09-2005, 07:35 AM
I'm not sure I agree with 92o being a push, he'd have to fold a helluva lot for that to be +$EV. Having thought some more about the call line, it's crap. I'm pushing.
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