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View Full Version : Question to EASTBAY & SNG Ptools experts


11-08-2005, 04:54 AM
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: doobs ( $4040 )
Seat 5: Slainte2000 ( $2430 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $550 )
Seat 8: GERMINDOL ( $980 )
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO: Qs 8s
Hero is all-In [550]

I thought it is a standard push, but when i ran this situation in SNGPT I was confused.

When i set up calling ranges like:
BB 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J6+,T7+,76s+
SB 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs
BTN 66+ ATs+ AJ+
The push has positive EV.

But if i make BB calling range 100% (it is actually +EV for BB to call ATC) my push becomes -0,9 %.

So adding to the BB 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J6+,T7+,76s+ hands like 23o against which I am a favorite makes it -EV ???

I understand that 100% call range makes 0% probability to take blinds without a fight, but I think that even going in to a coinflip with my stack is'nt that bad ???


What I am missing? And wuold you really fold that hand ???

swiftrhett
11-08-2005, 05:01 AM
ICM is not taking into account that you are BB next hand.

gildwulf
11-08-2005, 05:03 AM
This is a good push. Don't worry.

eastbay
11-08-2005, 05:03 AM
[ QUOTE ]
ICM is not taking into account that you are BB next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if you told it not to.

eastbay

eastbay
11-08-2005, 05:06 AM
One effect of bubble play is that it can be bad for you to be called by a hand over which you are a favorite.

How can that be? Because the chips you stand to lose hurt you far worse than the chips you stand to gain help you.

When a player makes a bad call on the bubble, often it hurts both him AND you. It helps the other players not involved in the hand, who stand a good chance to get an equity boost from the crippling or bust out of you or the caller.

This is one of the more frustrating aspects of SnG play.

eastbay

tigerite
11-08-2005, 05:10 AM
That blinds equity is a bit bugged though anyway. I don't know if you ever saw it but there was a post a while back, whereby with the equity modelling on, AA was a fold and not a push even face up. It doesn't take into account the modelling on the EV Fold for the push - which is wrong.

eastbay
11-08-2005, 05:12 AM
[ QUOTE ]
That blinds equity is a bit bugged though anyway. I don't know if you ever saw it but there was a post a while back, whereby with the equity modelling on, AA was a fold and not a push even face up.


[/ QUOTE ]

If I remember correctly, that was a garbage in, garbage out situation. I can only put so many training wheels on the program. The more flexibility I give people to tweak things, the more ways people are going to find to do analyses that don't make any sense.

[ QUOTE ]

It doesn't take into account the modelling on the EV Fold for the push - which is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not correct.

eastbay

tigerite
11-08-2005, 05:13 AM
There was definitely a bug with it. Wish I could remember the old thread now.

It was when you were on holiday - what date would that be? September ish?

tigerite
11-08-2005, 05:16 AM
Found it. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=333922 5&Searchpage=1&Main=3338158&Words=+face&topic=&Sea rch=true#Post3339225)

As it turns out I meant "EV No Call" was not being changed to reflect equity modelling.

eastbay
11-08-2005, 05:23 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Found it. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=333922 5&Searchpage=1&Main=3338158&Words=+face&topic=&Sea rch=true#Post3339225)

As it turns out I meant "EV No Call" was not being changed to reflect equity modelling.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's possible. I'll take a look at that.

eastbay

Jman28
11-08-2005, 05:27 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Found it. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=333922 5&Searchpage=1&Main=3338158&Words=+face&topic=&Sea rch=true#Post3339225)

As it turns out I meant "EV No Call" was not being changed to reflect equity modelling.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't be discounting the entire BB there. That's the problem. Basically, in doing that you are saying that he is 100% guaranteed to bust on the next hand, which is obviously not true.

eastbay
11-08-2005, 05:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Found it. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=333922 5&Searchpage=1&Main=3338158&Words=+face&topic=&Sea rch=true#Post3339225)

As it turns out I meant "EV No Call" was not being changed to reflect equity modelling.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't be discounting the entire BB there. That's the problem. Basically, in doing that you are saying that he is 100% guaranteed to bust on the next hand, which is obviously not true.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the discount is variable from 0 to 100%. That's not the problem. I think he has a point in that it's not being applied consistently in each context.

If you mean using 100% is a misapplication of discounting, I agree.

eastbay

Jman28
11-08-2005, 05:32 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Found it. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=333922 5&Searchpage=1&Main=3338158&Words=+face&topic=&Sea rch=true#Post3339225)

As it turns out I meant "EV No Call" was not being changed to reflect equity modelling.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't be discounting the entire BB there. That's the problem. Basically, in doing that you are saying that he is 100% guaranteed to bust on the next hand, which is obviously not true.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the discount is variable from 0 to 100%. That's not the problem. I think he has a point in that it's not being applied consistently in each context.

If you mean using 100% is a misapplication of discounting, I agree.

eastbay


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding. Here's a pic from that thread:

http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/6831/sga6dr.jpg

He has it set to discount 100% of the blinds, which is what I think is causing a problem. No?

tigerite
11-08-2005, 05:34 AM
Nah, it also gave folds at about 70% as well, I tried that. It's not the only thing causing it to not work.

Your EV No Call, logically, cannot be less than your EV Fold. That's like saying you open fold and yet your equity is higher by doing so, than if you push and the rest all fold.

Jman28
11-08-2005, 05:37 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Nah, it also gave folds at about 70% as well, I tried that. It's not the only thing causing it to not work.

Your EV No Call, logically, cannot be less than your EV Fold. That's like saying you open fold and yet your equity is higher by doing so, than if you push and the rest all fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. I see. Yeah, it must be ignoring the blinds when you push and discounting them when you fold?

tigerite
11-08-2005, 05:39 AM
You'd have to ask eastbay about that one.. I think, though I am not sure, that the equity modelling is only being applied on EV Fold and not EV No Call. Which I suppose is the same as saying the blinds aren't being discounted to an extent, yeah.

11-08-2005, 05:44 AM
Thank you for your comments but the thing is:

about 85% of the time next round you will be comparing with randon cards (90% callin range) and in most of them you probably be an underdog. (also on average you wiill get a nand which is worse than Q8s)

about 10% (optimistically) you will get the SB

about 5% you will fold.

In comparison to my push in previous round I can see two
better situations: taking SB without a fight and getting a better hand.

But still it is not obvious that these two situation overweight my push with Q8s.

Also everebody pls wright his\her action like: "I push that or I fold that"

Jman28
11-08-2005, 05:48 AM
[ QUOTE ]

Also everebody pls wright his\her action like: "I push that or I fold that"


[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely push Q8s here.

tigerite
11-08-2005, 05:50 AM
I don't think the BB will call 100%, he will fold some really bad hands. I think you have to push here, even though with BB's slightly modified range it's maybe -0.3% ? Because you won't get better than that before it's too late.

11-08-2005, 07:33 AM
I see a label on the picture saying SNG PT V1.19-test 9 but when I am trying to download the program from Eastbay's it offers only version 1.18 (I am e registered user). What's the problem ?

tigerite
11-08-2005, 07:56 AM
Look on the forum on his site and you will see there's test versions /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

11-08-2005, 09:40 AM
Interesting thing in spite of -0,9% EV of a push nobody will actually fold this hand without any arguments.

Arguments like : " BB will not call you with some trash hands thats why it is a +0,2-0,3% push" don't satisfy me because: a) With stack 2450 Yes he will pay another 250 and call with ATC and b) Silly logic but... average between +0,3% and -0,9% (if BB cals ATC) is -0,3%.

Any comments ?

Roman
11-08-2005, 10:41 AM
you will be in a much worse spot next hand, sometimes its necassary to take even -EV spots when the spots you will face in the future will be more -EV.