22: Steal Attempt Gone Wrong : Now What?

[beset7]

I didn't play this hand but I argued with somebody about it. Would you guys chime in?

Party Poker 22+2 Pot Limit Hold Em SNG

Seat 1 has 1470
Seat 3 has 2635
Hero has 1290
Seat 8 has 985
Seat 9 has 1620

Blinds are 100/200

Players have been very very passive preflop. Calling off half there stack with A2o etc.

Hero has Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and is EMP.

UTG folds, Hero raises the pot to 700. Seat 8 pushes in for 985. Seat 1 calls and so does Hero.

Flops comes 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Check, Check.

(pot is 3kish) Turn is Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero pushes his last 305 in.
Seat 1 calls.

Thanks in advance for any comments.

[rbear]

[ QUOTE ]


Players have been very very passive preflop. Calling off half there stack with A2o etc.

Hero has Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and is EMP.



[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this a great reason NOT to play this garbage from this position?

[Nick M]

first mistake was obviously trying to steal, but that's unavoidable, second mistake was the amount you raised. 700 is waaaaaaaayyyyyy to much. You want to weak steal...make it 500. But truthfully you need to push preflop here if you want to steal.

by the way I would have tried my best to check it down. You are only getting called if you're beat. If you're ahead, you get no call and opponent only would have had at best a 3 outer on river.

[bluef0x]

Wow, I hope you were arguing for folding preflop. Why the hell would someone raise to 700 preflop with that junk?

I guess you might as well get your last 305 in, you're not going to do much with it if you lose the pot.

[HesseJam]

PF: I probably let it go but that depends on how much I have pushed lately. If you make a move you should go all-in, especially if your opponents are prone to call off half their stack. They will be less likely to call off half their stack if you go all-in.

However, you raised to 700. I don't get why Seat 1 called the all-in of Seat 8. He either has a Monster (KK, AA) or he is a donk. If he has a monster, you are way behind. You have to get a fantastic flop (at least 2P) to continue the hand if you call to see the flop. You have to put in 285 to win 2700, those are some pot odds (1:9.5). You are about 1:6.5 (going all-in) against a monster. To flop 2P or better I estimate your odds at about 1:15 - 1:20. So, the odds are not there to call if he has a monster.
But you also play against Seat 1. If I put in Seat 1 into poker stove with a very loose range you are about 1:9 if everybody goes all-in. But you have to put in 590 to win 2975 (1:5) So the pot odds are not there to go all-in if he calls with a monster.

You probalbly can barely overcome the pot odds if Seat 8 has a mediocre but somewhat better hand than you. You'll be about 1:4. So, your pot odds are about 1:5. In the (more likely) monster case you are way behind with 1:9. In the (less likely) non monster case you have slightly favorable odds.

You should fold IMO. (This took me about 10 minutes to calculate, so the software would have folded me anyway /images/graemlins/smirk.gif)

You called, an on the flop, he checked to you. (Monster alert, IMO). You have nothing in your hand and almost nothing in your stack. He is probably not going to fold. So, checking behind is OK.

On the flop you get the best possible card (apart from maybe Ah to give you the 2nd nut flush draw) but chances are that you are behind. Ifm miraculously you were not behind, chances are that he folds which would not be good. So, I would check behind again to get a river bluff.

Of course, you would then call the river bet and probably lose against AK, AA or KK.