PDA

View Full Version : AQ good turn fold?

11-08-2005, 02:22 AM
BB is a tight tag. 12/7.3/2.75
Button is a 50/21/1.5 lag

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Hero calls, CO folds, Button calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.
jason_t
11-08-2005, 02:28 AM
Fold preflop.
scotty34
11-08-2005, 04:18 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 11.5:2 immediately, plus a good chance of more callers?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,388,503,888 games 6.094 secs 556,039,364 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 20.6269 % [ 00.19 00.02 ] { AdQs }
Hand 2: 55.0458 % [ 00.53 00.02 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 24.3273 % [ 00.22 00.03 ] { AA-99, AKs-A8s, KQs-KJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }

Maybe my hand range is a little too liberal for the Button, but this doesn't seem like a fold to me.
Cumulonimbus
11-08-2005, 04:19 AM
To answer your question... yeah, that's a good turn fold.
Adam22
11-08-2005, 05:19 AM
you're beat by every hand other than AK or JJ that those guys could play if they are reasonable. turns a good time to fold, definetly.
bigalt
11-08-2005, 05:58 AM
you're getting somewhere between 12.5 and 14.5:2 odds to call pre-flop, with 20% pot equity say.

But if you're not dominated, you're playing against hands that are going to be dropping if they don't hit most of the time.

You might pick up the broadway vs. 2 pair vs. set and make bank, but things could go very badly for you this hand. Suited I'm calling, but I'm folding pre-flop too with all the potential double reverse upside down odds at work.
MrEngenic
11-08-2005, 06:05 AM
Are you guys sure this is a fold? He could be ahead and if he is behind he has implied odds to draw to 4 outs if button doesn't raise. I'm not sure it's a clear fold. Make the pot just a bit bigger like 14 BB and it's a clear call IMO.
Nick C
11-08-2005, 08:49 AM
Button's preflop 3-bet indicates he probably has a better hand than yours (that may dominate you as well), so you're not happy to see that. BB's cap is really a nuisance. Who knows what he has.

Folding for two more might be best, but I'm not sure it's a precedent I'd really want to set.

The turn is really uncomfortable, but I can imagine myself getting stubborn, if I was still in. Then again, what am I supposed to do? Raise into Button's AA/KK/TT? Call, hoping Button will just call as well with A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif or that, if he raises instead, BB didn't turn a set or something and will slow down again?

I suppose this is why folding to the preflop cap would be sensible, though distasteful.
crunchy1
11-08-2005, 10:56 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 20.6269 % [ 00.19 00.02 ] { AdQs }
Hand 2: 55.0458 % [ 00.53 00.02 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 24.3273 % [ 00.22 00.03 ] { AA-99, AKs-A8s, KQs-KJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }

Maybe my hand range is a little too liberal for the Button, but this doesn't seem like a fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this?!? If you're basing your comment on your own pokerstove numbers - it seems like a really easy fold to me?!? Hero has the least equity out of all of them?!?

Not to mention that he's stuck between a LAG who's being aggressive and a ultra-tight TAG who's got a hand worth capping 3-ways before the flop.

I'm with jason_t here - this is an easy PF fold.
Nick C
11-08-2005, 04:21 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Button's preflop 3-bet indicates he probably has a better hand than yours (that may dominate you as well), so you're not happy to see that. BB's cap is really a nuisance. Who knows what he has.

Folding for two more might be best, but I'm not sure it's a precedent I'd really want to set.

The turn is really uncomfortable, but I can imagine myself getting stubborn, if I was still in. Then again, what am I supposed to do? Raise into Button's AA/KK/TT? Call, hoping Button will just call as well with A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif or that, if he raises instead, BB didn't turn a set or something and will slow down again?

I suppose this is why folding to the preflop cap would be sensible, though distasteful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. I see now that I mixed the two players up.

Since BB is the TAG and he capped, I fold preflop without regrets.

On the turn, I really don't like where this is headed. I don't really see how the 4 could have helped BB, and it seems like he's leading again in hopes of bet/3-betting and keeping me in, at least temporarily. And the LAG seems to like his hand so far, whether it beats mine or not, and he may raise again.

So I think the turn fold is good.
crazygoose
11-08-2005, 04:31 PM
I really like the turn fold. If villain is a good tag it looks like he is betting hoping you will get trapped when button raises again. This means he thinks he is beating you.
scotty34
11-08-2005, 07:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 20.6269 % [ 00.19 00.02 ] { AdQs }
Hand 2: 55.0458 % [ 00.53 00.02 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 24.3273 % [ 00.22 00.03 ] { AA-99, AKs-A8s, KQs-KJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }

Maybe my hand range is a little too liberal for the Button, but this doesn't seem like a fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this?!? If you're basing your comment on your own pokerstove numbers - it seems like a really easy fold to me?!? Hero has the least equity out of all of them?!?

Not to mention that he's stuck between a LAG who's being aggressive and a ultra-tight TAG who's got a hand worth capping 3-ways before the flop.

I'm with jason_t here - this is an easy PF fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have 20% equity in the pot, and we are getting at least 11.5:2 on our call. Yes, there is a very good chance we are dominated in some form or another, but that doesn't mean we can't win the pot.
ErrantNight
11-08-2005, 07:56 PM
[ QUOTE ]
BB is a tight tag. 12/7.3/2.75
Button is a 50/21/1.5 lag

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP