Decisions should NOT be made by process of elimination!!

Turn play: Folding and calling seem just so so wrong here. But why raise when almost certainly behind? Seems to be one of my laggy leaks. What do you think of my play?

No real reads.


Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

[Aaron W.]

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Turn play: Folding and calling seem just so so wrong here.

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Why?

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[ QUOTE ]
Turn play: Folding and calling seem just so so wrong here.

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Why?

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deja vu? :P

was hoping to inspire some discussion first, but ill give my own thoughts in a little while too if noone else jumps in.

fold the turn, BB has AQ-QQ or QJs

[JacksonTens]

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Turn: (5.75 BB) Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.


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Bizarre. Just for the record BB is not folding. Unless this is meta this is absolute dumping.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I like the turn raise if it is the last money you're putting in the pot. In other words, if reraised, we assume BB has Q and we fold and we're not putting in money on the river.

I haven't played full ring in a while, but isn't MP2 borderline early for KJo? Perhaps not.

[MadMat]

with no reads I fold that turn every time. Just can't see Middle pair holding up anywhere near enough with BB leading out flop and turn, and UTG calling along.

Mat

[bozlax]

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Turn play: Folding and calling seem just so so wrong here.

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The queen on the turn didn't really change your hand, unless BB raised preflop with AQ, which seems fairly unlikely (mostly given the 2 queens on the board).

I'm not going to bicker preflop play, but with two limpers might you not want to go ahead and throw a raise in?

On the flop I raise it up for the free card on the turn. If you get 3-bet, you can easily release your hand UI to a bet on the turn. If you're just called you can re-evaluate on the turn.

On the turn, the way you played it, I see no reason to start raising. You don't have any FE against 2 opponents, and, as I said, your position hasn't really changed. You still have odds to call, however, figuring you'll make up at least one bet if you hit on the river.

really? i would have thought most players at this level raise very few hands from BB.

AA, KK and AKs... some also raise QQ, but I can hardly count quad QQ as a possibility either with one combination and i dont see the MP player staying quiet when he trips the turn either, so on the turn action i find it very doubtful that anyone has a Q.

however, chances are still that i am behind almost any raised hand, and a non believing MP holding AJ seems very likely as well.

so... how does one fold 2 players in a large pot?

and is it worth it anyway?

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with no reads I fold that turn every time. Just can't see Middle pair holding up anywhere near enough with BB leading out flop and turn, and UTG calling along.

Mat

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I think Mat's right. I missed UTG's call.

[MadMat]

Considering your position, would a raise on the flop prehaps be a better line? if BB 3 bets or calls and leads the turn you can safely put him on a Q and fold, and if he doesn't have a Q you'll have an option of a free card on the turn?

Mat

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I like the turn raise if it is the last money you're putting in the pot. In other words, if reraised, we assume BB has Q and we fold and we're not putting in money on the river.

I haven't played full ring in a while, but isn't MP2 borderline early for KJo? Perhaps not.

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first up, there is absolutely no doubt if reraised im laying down on that street, to play on would be pure spewing.

and so far one player suggested a raise, one a fold preflop... fair enough, its debatable and table dependent imo between raising and calling.

i probably call 85% and raise 15% in this situation.

but here is the thing which made this hand interesting. in the vast majority of the time we ARENT going to get better on the river. and when we do improve, the most probably way for this to happen would be the case J offering a chop with AJ

So our raise has almost zero value. in addition to this it has zero fold equity, as at least one of them is checking out the river card. its ONLY purpose is to improve fold equity on the river, whilst pumping the pot to a level where almost any ML player will make a crying call.

so why do it?

[RatFink]

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so why do it?

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To pay extra for a chance at a free showdown that you're going to lose?

[Pog0]

What are you all scared of? No one reraised the turn, Mr. call every street means nothing, could be a draw or an 8. PF raiser can easily have AK and he might even call with it.

I'm surprised no one's said it yet (or I just missed it), but I think you need to valuebet this river.

well, what hands do you think it's possible BB has?

[Shillx]

Is betting the river -EV?? Yeah almost surely, but you have to bet the river IMHO if you are going to make this turn raise. The only reason to raise is for value and the 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif didn't change anything so go ahead and bet.

You can spend those same 2 bets showing down and that is usually the best play in pots like this. If the guy will not bet AK on the river you should probably call now and then fold the river UI. If he will bet AK again then just flat calldown. So the plays are to either call and fold the river or call and call the river if it isn't an ace. That choice depends on what you think he will do with hands like TT and AK.

Brad

Edited to say that folding the turn is also an option here as well.

[crovax4444]

*grunching*

At first I was advocating folding the turn as the pot was small, but I thought about it some more and figured we're only behind AA, KK and QA, KQ, JQ and Q8.

It seems like BB likes his hand to bet out OOP, but since the Queens paired the boards, it may have counterfeited a small pair.

However, I like the way this was done. If you got re-raised, you know your behind. Since he checked it after you, I'd be fairly confident that your ahead

[ajm36]

Why not raise the flop on a hand like this. With no real reads BB could be betting Q, J, or 8. The caller probably does not have the Q. A raise slows them for the turn and you will most likely get it checked to you. If you get re-raised, call and wait for the turn to see if you improve. If the turn is a blank you can bet and try to force folds and at the very least get a free showdown. When the Q hits the turn, if BB bets out you can either fold or call down, if he checks you can bet. If he's scared of the Q he folds otherwise he raises or calls. I could be way off on this line of reasoning, but I'll do something like this a lot, especially when the aggression comes from BB.

[POKhER]

I've typed out about 4replys for this thread and still have no good conclusion on the best play.

Infact i'm now considering folding the turn.

Raising the turn achieves very little, Infact calling down if you want a SD is best as you still pay 2BB's.

Raising the turn if anything can cost you more, They could improve on the river i.e. Ace falling and bet into you(sure you can fold, but pots large, Do you really want to?).

Therefore i think Turn fold, or call down is best. You have position, use it. Debate this /images/graemlins/blush.gif

hehe thats probably because every play on the turn seems wrong. im fairly sure looking at it now the best turn play is to call down, with folding a fairly close second. raising and then checking behind certainly makes no sense at all.

what are people's thoughts on the turn play though, if we can be sure (ill post the actual results tmr):

BB is a decent player, hand range: AA or KK
MP is a decent player, hand range: TJ, AJ, KJ

If you make this turn raise (and get called), you have to bet/fold the river.

well... thanks for all the discussion

if anyone was interested,

BB held A /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
MP had 33

i wanted to hit them after id thought so much about the hand and they showed me that crap.

I like

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well... thanks for all the discussion

if anyone was interested,

BB held A /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
MP had 33

i wanted to hit them after id thought so much about the hand and they showed me that crap.

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Hey at least Donko Mc. Donkface missed his check-raise /images/graemlins/grin.gif

argh oops sorry not 33

44.... i think... it was just a very low pp that missed the whole board

Beginner blind posting (but spent so real time thinking it through) so the math/logic may be off. If so I would appreciate someone pointing out any major errors.

Pre-flop: I would have raised the first time. Not that I think calling is a bad play. Party tends to be thought and pushing usually pays. That said I like the call the second time. Again a raise isnt that bad because you are unlikley to be dominated.

Flop: Fine call. Middle pair but no redraws so you cant love your hand. His raise indicates at least a J or Q. J your probably close to even (A J and your way behind 4-1 J 10 your way ahead 4-1). I think the fact that the flop is a rainbow is really helpful here as it eliminates a number of the hands he could be on. Any Q and your in a lot of trouble at least 3-1 underdog.

Now the turn: He bets out. Would he bet with the three possible hands above AJ, J10 Qx? The second Q might draw a lot of bluffs (its a positive play if you fold apprixmately 20% of the time). I would guess that there is at least a 20% chance you have pair of Js or even two pairs and fold. If he has the Q then you are drawing dead.

So the real question is how likely is he to have the Q. If he has the Q more than 15% of the time the call or raise is EV negative. Therefore I would fold.

River: Since you called on the flop, I would consider bluffing on the river. Just in case he was bluffing. If there is at least an 8% chance he doesnt have the AJ or the Q then it is a good bluff.

preflops been discussed earlier in the thread... i really dont mind a raise or a call here, there is most likely very little difference in ev

on your flop analysis:
what hands can he raise from BB that have a J or a Q in them? (outside of JJ and QQ of course, but by the turn both of those hands are double cased with 2 Qs on the board and one J on the board and one in my hand)
98% of vils at ML wont raise AQs from BB with this many runners. I would put his hand range much more likely on AA KK and AKs.
of course this doesnt prevent the MP player from having a J or a Q here on the flop.

The turn:
Remember previous action, his preflop raise from BB gives him a very limited hand range. JT, AJ and Qx are very unlikely to be in it.

River analysis:
If he doesnt have AA KK AJ or Qx then the river is a value bet not a bluff....
If we bet the river it is a utility bet. Intended to fold hands: AA, KK, AJ or gain calls from Jx, particularly from MP

as it stood when it came to the river i felt i had messed up the turn and so chickened out when i certainly should have bet.

[Pedigree]

It seems as if you are behind on the turn and don't have odds to draw to a king or a jack. Just fold.

[DMBFan23]

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The only reason to raise is for value and the 3 didn't change anything so go ahead and bet.

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what about the free showdown raise to charge the multitude of draws that could exist?

I don't think this is a good spot for that but I can think of many times when you'd want to raise the turn for value but check the river. draws will pay off the turn but not the river and you lose the same two bets versus a made hand. you make the same if he will bluff the river every time, so if he often fires again then don't free showdown raise him. but the players who give up on the river need to be raised on the turn. [censored] I'm quoting HPFAP now, so I have to stop.

you open yourself up to the river donkbluff and the turn semi bluff 3-bet (so you can't do it too much against LAGs) but against players who don't do too much of that it can be a weapon. luckily these are also the same players who will not give you the extra bet on the river with a missed draw, while LAGs will.

[AngelicPenguin]

This would seem like a fantastic spot to use the free showdown play if we were against one opponent. I'm not sure about the chance of getting a better hand to fold and being ahead both of them would warrant it here. Shrug.