AA picks up nut flush draw on turn. [Archive]

View Full Version : AA picks up nut flush draw on turn.

ryanghall

11-07-2005, 09:27 PM

Opponent seems decent enough. I don't believe he's got too out of line but, again, I don't have many hands on him. He raises a fair bit preflop. 22/13 in around 50 hands or so. I didn't push the turn because if he had a flush draw, he made it (which I guess is unlikely) and he's not folding a set there I wouldn't think. Is calling the turn and folding the river correct? I figure I'm REALLY not likely to be ahead on the river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB ($746)
BB ($1017.75)
UTG ($739.85)
Hero ($600)
MP2 ($1226.65)
CO ($1377.80)
Button ($581.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $24, 4 folds, BB calls $18.

Flop: ($51) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $45, BB raises to $90, Hero calls $45.

Turn: ($231) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets $78, Hero calls $78.

River: ($387) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets $168, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $555

AllIn3High

11-07-2005, 09:33 PM

I think you should shove it in on the turn. I think the combination of his line looking like BS and you having a strong hand / redraw / still some fold equity makes it a good spot to pooosh. I may be totally out of line here tho. As played you probably have to fold the river, but I wouldn't be pleased.

JackOfSpeed

11-07-2005, 09:36 PM

The most common type of flush draw donks will min-raise with is the nut one. Second most common type is K high one. Neither of these are possible -- I don't think he has a flush. I hate a flat call on the turn, but I don't like a push either. I bump it to 200 and call a push.

JMa

11-07-2005, 09:43 PM

What do you want to accomplish with that turn raise? Just call it down, including teh rivar.

Big_Jim

11-07-2005, 09:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I bump it to 200 and call a push.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ewwwwwwwwwww.

It gives him >4:1 on his call and has almost 0 fold equity.

If he pushes we are smoked, and miss our chance to hit the flush.

A push is only a slight overbet here.

If you think his bet means weakness (I think it does) push the turn.

If you think he has you beat, you are getting pretty close to expressed odds to call his bet, and may be able to get a little value out of him on the river.

I probably call river too, given the nice price he's giving you. His bets could easily just be a top pair kind of hand this is afraid of the flush.

JackOfSpeed

11-07-2005, 09:52 PM

meant to say bump it 200 (miscounted the pot size+the new bet), but I imagine that would still be too small for your liking.

But why on earth would we think we're beat on the turn? I guess I push then.

JackOfSpeed

11-07-2005, 09:53 PM

The way you played it, that'd a pretty big fold getting 3:1...don't think you're behind enough not to call the river.

Big_Jim

11-07-2005, 09:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]

But why on earth would we think we're beat on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we're beat... but if we raise to $200 and he pushes, we are beat.

r3vbr

11-07-2005, 10:03 PM

Looks like he flopped a set...
I'd bet even money that he has a set here.

creedofhubris

11-08-2005, 12:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Opponent seems decent enough. I don't believe he's got too out of line but, again, I don't have many hands on him. He raises a fair bit preflop. 22/13 in around 50 hands or so. I didn't push the turn because if he had a flush draw, he made it (which I guess is unlikely) and he's not folding a set there I wouldn't think. Is calling the turn and folding the river correct? I figure I'm REALLY not likely to be ahead on the river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB ($746)
BB ($1017.75)
UTG ($739.85)
Hero ($600)
MP2 ($1226.65)
CO ($1377.80)
Button ($581.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $24, 4 folds, BB calls $18.

Flop: ($51) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $45, BB raises to $90, Hero calls $45.

Turn: ($231) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets $78, Hero calls $78.

River: ($387) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets $168, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $555

[/ QUOTE ]

Ryan: I think the hand is OK except for the river fold.

Consider this question: how often do you need to be ahead to make calling the river bet +EV?

It's a good question to be mulling over whenever you're considering a tough laydown.