100 Hand Summary

[toss]

In 100 hands I made two clear mistakes.

UTG+2 raises (ATs+, AJo+, 88+), I 3-bet with AQo from HiJack,
BB (pretty loose and bad) calls two from the BB, UTG+2 calls.
Flop is T3Qr. Check, check, I bet. Turn is 5. Check, check, bet.
River is J no flush possible. Checked to me and I checked behind.

Pretty bad check. For some reason I put UTG+2 on AK exactly. Out thunk myself. I'd guess it cost me 1.95BB or so.

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Villains is 39.68/6.35 after 63 hands. He's been playing pretty passive.

He raises in MP1 and I 3-bet with AsKs right after him. HU to the flop.
Flop is 9c7sJc check, bet, call.
Turn is 3s he checks, I check.
River is Qc he bets, I fold.

Very bad check. I should bet this turn, he may fold AQ, AK. If he does it would be pretty good for me. This check may've very well cost me the pot. How big a mistake in terms in -BB do you think this is?

Edit: River is a club.

[newhizzle]

um... dont you have a flush in hand 2

anyway, id bet the river in hand 1, you can probably fold to a raise since BB is in there, otherwise, its read dependent

id bet the turn in hand 2, you could easily still have the best hand

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess it cost me 1.95BB or so

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really understand the point of this post, but there is no way that this cost u 1.95 BB

I would really expect u to understand this.

[toss]

Just evaluating my own play since I'm in the midst of a big downswing and doubting myself. How big of a mistake do you think it is?

Edit: Fine 1.95 BB is an overestimate. The loose bad player will hit some kind of wacky hand and beat me 10%-20% or so. The other will have AK or is slowplaying a set some percentage of the time. So -1 BB more accurate?

I think hand 2 may be misposted?

Hand 1. I think a check is okay, but I get scared too easily on the river by scary boards. I think too hard about what hands could have seen the river that will call a river bet when I am often suprised by 3rd pair and K high. This could be a leak in my game. What hands that you beat call a river bet here with a scary board and your Pre-flop 3-bet? QK? and JK? Why do you think you missed 1.95BBs?

[27offsooot]

~ 1 bb, but it's hard to estimate w/o better reads. There are a lot of factors to consider, but the EV of the bet has a MAXIMUM of 2 BB and that's when BOTH players CALL with LOSING hands 100% of the time on the river. You have to consider percent likelihood of them both calling with worse hands. Also your ability to safely fold to a river c/r is another factor.

We all go through downswings, don't be too hard on urself.

[toss]

Yeah 1.95 was way too high. A bet yields about .8BB +EV from the loose bad player. As for the the TAG its pretty complicated to see how much +EV a bet is against him.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
Just evaluating my own play since I'm in the midst of a big downswing and doubting myself. How big of a mistake do you think it is?

Edit: Fine 1.95 BB is an overestimate. The loose bad player will hit some kind of wacky hand and beat me 10%-20% or so. The other will have AK or is slowplaying a set some percentage of the time. So -1 BB more accurate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, those are some of the factors, but how about them not calling a river bet. The EV of the bet is roughly (if u can auto fold to a c/r):

EV = (1 BB * % likelihood that Player A calls with worse hand) + (1 BB * % likelihood that Player B calls with worse hand) - 1 BB * % That u are beat on the river by either player A or B and they call (or raise and u SAFELY fold)).

There are other factors like them folding better hands and % of bluff raises that u incorrectly fold to and such. This may not be exact, b/c i wing these things when i'm playing and haven't the time to put an exact formula together. But at least consider most or all the factors.