A good example of HORRIBLE play

[nightlyraver]

A popular world class player said that all players make mistake, but the truely great players KNOW they are making a mistake as they are making them. I think I played this hand worse than any other hand I've played - and I KNEW I was playing it badly at the time!

Here is the setup:
NLHE MTT, about 240 started, top 27 get paid. It's real early and most players are still in it. Blinds are at 15/30 - no solid reads on anyone. Hero has around t1,200. Everyone else in the hand has t1,300-t1,700.

Action: It's folded around to Hero in MP. Hero has A /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Fold, call or raise?

Answer: In this spot I put A9s in the category of bare minimum to open the pot with for value. I want action with my better hands and my hand is too good to limp. Hero raises to 90, the standard opening raise.

Action: Button calls 90, SB calls 90, BB calls 90.

The Turn: K /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif Pot = 360

Action: SB checks, BB bets 360

Do you fold, call or raise?

Answer: There are two factors to consider here. First, the pot is already large AND multi-way. That means that lots of chips are going into this pot in all likelyhood. Second, and more importantly, Hero has a bigger draw than you'd think at first glance. At first, this seems like you're being offered 2:1 on a flush draw. However, Hero's outs to the A are probably good since the bettor most likely does not have AK (he didn't re-raise). Therefore, Hero is probably about 45% to win HU against the BB's likely dry K. Calling here is the worst option since Hero is putting in chips as a dog with impropper odds and may not get paid off. Hero should raise here and move all-in. Then, he either gets all to fold OR he gets the proper odds on his draw given the already large pot.

Action: Hero actually FOLDS, Button folds, BB raises all-in, SB calls all-in, and each show KQ and KJ, respectfully.

I don't know what I was thinking here. I KNEW I was up against a dry king. I don't know why I passed up on this edge early on - I rationalized that I could pick a better spot. In reality, I was 45% to tripple up early on. Wow, can't believe I played the hand this way...

[jcm4ccc]

I disagree that you can count your Aces as good. They might be, but in terms of decision-making, I think you have 9 outs (AK does not always reraise, BTW). You should be conservative when estimating whether or not you have a legitimate out. A9 is too poor to expect to win if an Ace hits on the turn or river, especially since you have 2 preflop callers who have yet to act on the flop.

So I'm assuming that you have 9 outs. The BB has made a pot-sized bet. If you put him all-in, you should assume that the SB and button will fold, since they have yet to enter the pot. Again, you should be conservative when estimating what will happen. You have little indication that the MP or Button will call a raise of 1100 chips when they have only invested 90 chips so far.

So what kind of FE do you need to make this break-even, chip-wise? You have 1110 chips if you fold. You will have 1830 chips if you push and BB folds. You will have 2580 chips if you push and BB calls and you win. So the formula is this:

1110 = (x * 1830) + [(1 - x) * .35 (2580)]

1110 = Chips if you fold
x = Folding Equity
1830 = Chips if you push and everyone folds
.35 = Chance of winning if you push and BB calls
2580 = Chips if you push and BB calls

Solving for x, you get:

1110 = 1830x + [(1-x) * 903]
1110 = 1830x +903 – 903x
207 = 927x
207/927 = x
22.3% = x

So you need him to fold 22.3% of the time to make this a break-even push. You want better than break-even, so let’s say that you need him to fold 25% of the time to make this a good push.

I’m assuming this is a low buy-in tournament. If it is, I would expect the BB to fold around 0% of the time. Okay, maybe 2-3% of the time.

This next statement will sound like I am calling you a donkey, and I’m really not. Nonetheless, I think it is the mark of the donkey to overestimate his outs (when he thinks about them at all) and to assume a favorable situation for acting aggressively (such as getting 2 or more callers to your push).

[pooh74]

Another assumption he was making (that he shouldnt) was that SB would call too (when he said "triple up")

[KneeCo]

The quote is from Cloutier, right?

BTW, I'm not a fan of a couple of things in the hand, but if that's the worst hand you've ever played, you're much better than me.

[ilya]

If you somehow *knew* you were up against a dry King, you would have been right to fold. A King of any sort is not mucking to a push after making that bet.

However, since you say that you had "no solid reads on anyone," I don't see how you could have known what he had. The bet does look like a King, but it could also be a set, a straight draw, a flush draw, a combo draw, an underpair, or even a bluff. No matter though, because without a read that a big bet from this guy tends to mean a weak hand/draw, I think a fold is in order anyway.

Basically my point is that I don't like semi-bluffing for all my chips in what seems like a fairly marginal situation without at least a rudimentary read.

I think that you can say that your Ace will be good 1/3 of the time or 2/3 of the time, so multiply your 3 outs by 1/3 or 2/3 and add it to the 9 hearts giving 10 or 11 outs.

I'm not sure that the BB folds less than 25% of the time. In a low-buy in, you get agressive players bluffing a lot... Anyway, I think it's a good time to fold and hope for a better spot. If you are better than the average, WAIT.

[nightlyraver]

First I want to reply to some of the feedback so far:

I didn't say that I was sure I would tripple up, that was just hindsight. In the actual hand, the BB and the SB put in all their chips. When I was considering the call I assumed everyone else would fold.

I don't think counting the A as 3 additional outs is far from correct. Assuming that the bettor has a K, he would have to have exactly AK for my A to be no good. I think that after a LMP opens and 2 calls, many times, but not always, a BB w/ AK will RR to limit the field.

Assuming the FE equation is correct and the bettor must fold 25% of the time, I don't think he is calling all that often to make this play incorrect. After all, he called preflop getting better than 4:1 on his money. He could have any 2! If he has a K w/o a good kicker, he will have to give me credit for a better hand. For example, he may have called w/ KTs and bets the pot. Most would fold to the raise in this spot.

I don't think that my original read will be off the vast majority of the time. I guess he could have had a set of 7's or two pair, but that's a real long shot. I'm not sure it would be incorrect to simply assume the bettor has a K with either a decent kicker or a bad kicker. It was said that semi-bluffing all my chips early on is a bad idea, especially if I'm better than average. This goes back to pushing small edges early in a tourney I suppose. However, I feel that I made a mistake mathematically. If I could see his cards and ran the numbers, I SHOULD have called, making this a big mistake as far as the Fundamental Theory of Poker is concerned.