11: Pocket 9's facing a raise late

***** Hand History for Game 2997443496 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:17215565 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Monday, November 07, 16:29:09 EDT 2005
Table Table 67543 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 6
BB: emptyseat20 ( $1360 )
UTG: etravis54 ( $1200 )
2nd: aaronb47 ( $1230 )
3rd: lastdeu ( $1808 )
Button: JackSeven333 ( $1030 )
SB: TheOriginals ( $1372 )

Trny:17215565 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to emptyseat20 [ 9h 9s ]
>You have options at Table 67719 Table!.
etravis54 folds.
aaronb47 folds.
lastdeu raises [400].
JackSeven333 folds.
TheOriginals folds.
Your time bank will be activated in 5 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
>You have options at Table 67719 Table!.

What's my move here

[kevkev60614]

Read on villain?

My default is to fold. I'd consider calling if he's the type to only bet a flop he hits. I don't like pushing, because at the $11s you'll get called a lot, and you're probably either slightly ahead or behind a pair with all your chips on the line. Too early to be desperate.

[ QUOTE ]
Read on villain?

My default is to fold. I'd consider calling if he's the type to only bet a flop he hits. I don't like pushing, because at the $11s you'll get called a lot, and you're probably either slightly ahead or behind a pair with all your chips on the line. Too early to be desperate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I too tend to agree with this alot.

However if you DO have a read on the villain a couple points could be made here.

1) If he is pushing, and open raising alot then you could push and perhaps get him to fold the crap he is playing and being agressive with.

2) If he has been playing tight and sitting and just waiting for his opportunity then this is an easy fold.

3) I sure as hell dont like calling almost 40% of my stack here. Too me, upon reads... this is either a fold or push.

I call here, 99 is just to strong for me to fold at this point, and then play according to the flop. If the flop comes scary, I check/fold. T900 is still enough chips to play with here, though you will probably end up having to race as a 60 in a 60/40 flip to make a run at winning. If it comes relatively safe, (one face card, no ace) then I push. I think this will maximize fold equity vs two unpaired overcards, but keep you from being broke most of the times villians hits the flop.

Also, you may get called down by an unimproved AK high on the flop if villian thinks you are stop and going with any 2. This would leave you with a large enough stack to completely run over the table on the bubble.

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this will maximize fold equity vs two unpaired overcards, but keep you from being broke most of the times villians hits the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain hits the flop and you push into him, how will you not be broke?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this will maximize fold equity vs two unpaired overcards, but keep you from being broke most of the times villians hits the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain hits the flop and you push into him, how will you not be broke?

[/ QUOTE ]

VS A hypothetical villians AK, the flop comes AJ7, you can check fold leaving you with t900. Flop comes, Q62 you push and villian doesn't get to see turn and river, which he would if you push preflop. The only times you go broke are when it comes K72. You still will go broke sometimes, but it will be less often than a straight push preflop.

I personally think the villians raising range here is pretty wide, and I'm not so scared of postflop play that I can see a flop with 99 vs Ax all day. He has Ax much more than an overpair here, so vs his range i think we are about 65/35 preflop. This is too big to pass up with the quickly escalating blinds.

[Melchiades]

I really love reading posts by the people who take the one minute of effort to convert their hand. No biggie though.

This type of raise on the button is very rarely an overpair. Most of the time its a small pocket pair or Ax, where x is big or small or just some random playable hand like JQ,JK. Stuff in all your chips, theres a decent probability that hell fold his crappier hands (that are actually a coin flip against you). Your on the bubble too, so hes going to give you more respect than he would normally.

[Nick M]

Anyone that says they need a read to answer this question is nuts...you simply muck it. Zero Fold Equity, flipping no good.

wait..., why wouldn't you push this?

[Nick M]

because he will call.

so? 99 isnt that bad of a hand to get all-in with. i think rarely you'd be facing an over pair, thus at worst you are 55/45 favorite. of course i could be (and prob am) wrong... i just want to read your/and others/ reasoning on this.

thanks

[Nick M]

i don't think he has an overpair. I think he has at least 2 overs. Ask yourself this...do you want to coin flip for all the money when you are tied for second in chips and there is 6 people left? If there is no chance you can steal that 400 then there is no reason to coin flip. Sometimes you have to let a hand go, no matter how tempting it seems. I too use to play like that. But you have to realize that your pair VS 2 overs is bad play unless you can translate those precentages to $$$ not chips. Meaning if the stacks were the same, it was the bubble and the 2 small stacks weren't in the equation, then pushing is +$$$$ not +chips. No it becomes profitable.

You have 13.5 BB in your stack at this point. Why are you limiting your options to pushing and folding?

Hi. IMO this is fold or call. I would definitely NOT push here. Personally, with no clear reads, I would put him on a higher pair or 2 overcards, fold it, and move on to the next hand. Have a nice day!

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
because he will call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you might have more folding equity than some posters think here. Could be well 33% chance that he folds. I wouldn't be too thrilled if he called but I estimate it to be about a coinflip then. All-in-all, I probably push. But it's close. Reads are important here.

[tigerite]

6 handed is the bubble is it? 99 is too good to fold? It's not that bloody good. I fold, mostly, unless I have reason to believe he's on a steal.

[Doc]

Glad to see this post, I had 2 of these hands to ask about in my list of stuff to post.

Thanks,

Doc

[Nick M]

you think it's wise to call off 1/3 your stack with a pair of 9s OOP? The raise is to 400, this is what dictates the action.