Value Raise or Donk Play?

[henrikrh]

Seat 1: <font color="blue"> HERO </font> [K /images/graemlins/heart.gif,9 /images/graemlins/club.gif,9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif,10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif] ($89.95 in chips)
Seat 6: <font color="red"> VILLAIN </font> ($49 in chips)

PRE-FLOP
rwm53rd folds, <font color="red"> VILLAIN </font> $1, ike69118833 calls $1, JzznutZZ folds, J_Gov folds, paul2020 folds, <font color="blue"> HERO </font> calls $1, mpozar folds, fallout1234 calls $0.50.

FLOP [board cards Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif,8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif,7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
fallout1234 checks, <font color="red"> VILLAIN </font> bets $2, ike69118833 calls $2, <font color="blue"> HERO </font> bets $12.50, fallout1234 folds, <font color="red"> VILLAIN </font> bets $21, ike69118833 folds, <font color="blue"> HERO </font> bets $63, <font color="red"> VILLAIN </font> calls $25 and is all-in.

How's this play? I put him on weaker than top set, maybe even as weak as AAxx unimproved, most likely two pair. Didn't put him on any nut draws, so I wasn't ultra fussed with drawing to the 2nd to nuts. Also the game was quite loose, with an average pot about 3 times what you'd normally expect.

Is it just me, or does the 1/2 pot lead followed by a mini-raise indicate increadible strength (or supidity)? It's like he's saying "rasie me, call me, I don't care".

[henrikrh]

The strange thing is that when I reraised I knew I was going to get this guy all in this hand, and the sooner the better. Didn't even realise how small his minraise was, i reraised almost immediatly becuas I gave the player no respect. But that's a good point

Anyone htink they can put him on a hand? When a little discussion gets going i'll post results.

You have 7 nut outs (Ah, 3 non-heart Js and 3 non-heart 6s) that you could hit on the turn. The call in front of you after the initial bet likely means that some of your outs are dead. Your initial pot sized raise isn't terrible as you stand a chance to pick up the pot with it and/or force out the nut-flush draw.

The fact that you were min-raised should raise an eyebrow, IMO. If this was a good player, it probably means a better wrap and flush draw or a set w/ nut flush or straight draw.

There really isn't a reasonable hand that your opponent could hold that you are better than a coin flip against. There are quite a few hands where you are a signigicant dog though. So, given that, I would probably elect to simply call his min raise and see what the turn brings.

After looking at it a little closer, as Chimi says the initial pot is fine. The question is the second one.

When you bet 63 you are effectively betting $35 to win a $67 pot. That's pretty close to 2:1 odds. There are many hands that you are 50/50 with, and several that you are a 30/70 dog to. Against naked QQxx you're 40/60. Only a handful have you worse than 30/70, so with no read on your opponent I think you're ok here.

There may be opponents you should fold this to however, since that mini-raise has me very concerned.

[Tilt]

He bet, you raised, he re-raised. He has top set, or a set + a flush, or wrap + flush, or set + wrap. 90% of the time he has a set, and if he doesn't you are in worse trouble 9% of the time. You have position, why go all-in? If the board pairs on 4th st., why not save yourself some $$?

[henrikrh]

It's veyr low limit and loose tbale ufll of idiots, so putitng him on top set and nut flush draw is WAY too much respect. However it did turn out that he had top set, with QQAA, the turn came an ace, river was hte jack of hearts and I won. I was around 38% so I did overplay it quite a bit and got lucky, still a little new to omaha.

[Tilt]

All I am saying is based on the action you know you are at least against a set, and if not a set then your draw is weaker. One or both of those are true 99% of the time when the action goes like that. So just call and preserve the option value of position by mucking to a paired board.

To answer the original question, there is no way that this is a value raise. You have a pair of 9s and a solid draw. There are precious few hands that will play with you here that you are way ahead of.

I wouldn't classify it as a donk play either. I'd save that for just a flush draw, OESD, 2 pair, bottom set, etc.

It's an aggressive, maybe +EV, probably sub-optimal play.

[ QUOTE ]
So just call and preserve the option value of position by mucking to a paired board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly! At it played out the in the OP hand. Your villian would have pushed the turn and you would have called with the same number of outs that you had on the flop and taken down a nice pot. Giving yourself the option of saving that half-buyin when you know your behind on the flop and drawing dead on the turn is a good thing.

[Wheatsauce]

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on weaker than top set, maybe even as weak as AAxx unimproved, most likely two pair. Didn't put him on any nut draws

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand your read here...if he is min-reraising he will almost always have big hand (unless he is a complete donk, which was not stated in the OP), he wants you in the pot. I would say at least nut flush draw with some sort of wrap, with top set very likely also. Just call and see what the turn brings. You have position on him, no need to negate that advantage by going all in.