$22 on the bubble

[Olback]

Villian was tight and this was the first time he had raised in ages.

Should i fold knowing that i can steal at will?

Call and hope to see a nice flop?

Reraise?

#Game No : 2995575215
***** Hand History for Game 2995575215 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:17207905 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Monday, November 07, 02:55:15 EDT 2005
Table Table 66886 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: HotChic408 ( $1200 )
Seat 6: STaje9 ( $2900 )
Seat 9: WHO_AM_EYE ( $1250 )
Seat 1: Olback17 ( $2650 )
Trny:17207905 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Olback17 [ 9c 9d ]
STaje9 raises [400].
WHO_AM_EYE folds.

Olback17 ??

[TheNoodleMan]

Even with his tight image there is now way you can fold to a miniraise when you are holding 99.
If he is as tight as you say, then take the cheap flop and see what happens. If you are fortunate enough to hit your set, you might be able to double through him and be in the drivers seat. If the flop comes with some broadway cards, you only gave up 200 chips and you are still in good shape.

[pokergrader]

[ QUOTE ]
Even with his tight image there is now way you can fold to a miniraise when you are holding 99.
If he is as tight as you say, then take the cheap flop and see what happens. If you are fortunate enough to hit your set, you might be able to double through him and be in the drivers seat. If the flop comes with some broadway cards, you only gave up 200 chips and you are still in good shape.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tricky.

These are the few hands that I get owned on. If he has me beat the villian keeps making 1/4 or 1/3 pot bets I can't resist to fold and then I'm down to like 800 chips.

My edge sucks here because I never know where I'm at, I prefer to piss off the short stacks, but then again if I can win this hand and can bully all 3. Then again he is tight, prolly would call AKo if I push so yeah I think I'm gunna be a pussy and fold this.

[Hendricks433]

I call and see a flop. Im not ready to commit my whole stack with 99 here.

i call and see the flop. if any scare cards flop i prolly check fold the flop...especially becuase of ur read on him
i wouldnt commit my hole stack at any point in the hand unless i had a set or something better

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I call and see a flop. Im not ready to commit my whole stack with 99 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Olback]

Well i folded preflop. The reasons for this were:

a) I generally suck at postflop play and as Hyperion said I would end up dumping alot of chips here.

b)If i reraised he would call with a,k or a bigger hand and i would be screwed.

But know that i think about calling and seeing what happens might have been a better play.

[ QUOTE ]
i wouldnt commit my hole stack at any point in the hand unless i had a set or something better



[/ QUOTE ]

So you are simply playing for set value? Even if you hit your set, you are unlikely to stack him unless he has an overpair or TP, you don't have the implied odds here to simply play for set value. If the flop is all unders are you willing to go allin on this flop? If there is one over what's the plan if he min bets?

I don't think the risk/reward is really worth it here.

I'm curious: what's your plan if there are overcards on the flop? Check and fold to a bet? Bet? How much? If villian calls your bet, what do you do on the turn?

I'm not being critical of your answer, I'm just trying to better understand the thinking. This seems like it is a common enough situation (at or near the bubble, mid-pair in a blind, facing a raise from someone who has me covered) that there ought to be some sort of standard line. And, I'm trying to start recognizing recurring situations so that I can play them more routinely.

[ QUOTE ]
If the flop comes with some broadway cards, you only gave up 200 chips and you are still in good shape.

[/ QUOTE ]There will be at least one overcard about 80% of the time. So, four times you lose 200 = 800 chips. The 5th time you need to make 800 chips, there are already 700 in the pot, so you need to get an extra 100 from villian. Do you think you'll getthat much? If you bet the all unders flop, he'll probably fold unless he has a bigger pocket pair. To make up for the times that villian calls with a bigger pair, you have to have him call quite frequently when he is beat.

I don't pretend to know the answer. But, it seems ot me that if you are conceding your 200 chips everytime there is an overcard, you're going to be behind when you call the min-raise. If you're going to call, it seems you must be willing to make a play on some overcard flops.

[trevor]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the risk/reward is really worth it here.

[/ QUOTE ]

IT'S A MIN-RAISE FOR [censored]'s SAKE!

What the hell happened to playing poker? Fold pre-flop so you don't have to? This is awful, awful advice.

Given you read call the raise and, dare I say, play poker? You are giving up too much by folding. You have to make the most of marginal opportunities like this to get wins. If you want 3rd go ahead and fold it.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you hit your set, you are unlikely to stack him unless he has an overpair or TP, you don't have the implied odds here to simply play for set value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Making these kind of assumptions is beyond weak-tight as well as incorrect. You are getting 3:1, which is more than enough. How does he not have enough implied odds? If you happened to snag a caller in between are you folding 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif?

I am rarely this harsh but I cannot believe the number of people who think folding in this spot can be anywhere near correct.

[DPCondit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call and see a flop. Im not ready to commit my whole stack with 99 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[DPCondit]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't pretend to know the answer. But, it seems ot me that if you are conceding your 200 chips everytime there is an overcard, you're going to be behind when you call the min-raise. If you're going to call, it seems you must be willing to make a play on some overcard flops.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so we make a play on some overcard flops. Would you seriously consider folding every time an overcard flops?

[jedinite]

I hate just calling here.

You're the small blind, you've got a BB behind to act who has T1000 behind after posting a T200 big blind. With the min-raise and your call behind he's getting 5-1 to call and at least 2-1 if he pushes and is called. Assuming he's smart, you both have reasonable calling ranges and he has any FE, you both are offering him a great scenario to take this away from you if you call. Pushing from the BB there with almost any two (or calling and pushing any flop, a three-handed stop+go) has gotten me past the bubble against passive opponents many a time.

In your shoes I fold or push. If the PFR is really tight, I tend to push instead - from a typical (i.e. no 2p2 pushbot) $22 opponnent, usually the minraise is a good sign for "I'm a passive bigstack and i want to steal the blinds but don't want to risk too much". So if he's tight and in that situation you've got a lot of FE on a push.

If the short stacks are pretty weak/tight (e.g. 75% of the time), I'll fold and continue to steal from them. I don't mind the other big stack taking down these blinds, I want to combine with him to pop the bubble and take down the two shorties, with the goal of getting heads up no worse than 2-1 underdog.

[jeffraider]

With your read I don't mind folding at all. Without your read I'm either calling or pushing.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't pretend to know the answer. But, it seems ot me that if you are conceding your 200 chips everytime there is an overcard, you're going to be behind when you call the min-raise. If you're going to call, it seems you must be willing to make a play on some overcard flops.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so we make a play on some overcard flops. Would you seriously consider folding every time an overcard flops?

[/ QUOTE ]Two things:

1) No. But, I was responding to Noodleman, who assumed we'd be losing everytime an overcard came on the flop. I was trying to show that calling was bad under this assumption. That is, I was suggesting that you have to play some overcard flops if you want to call the min-raise.

2) In this bubble situation, I may be less willing to try to play "poker". I'm not an expert at SNGs or other forms of poker, but I am reasonably sure that good bubble play would be laughed at in other poker situations.

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call and see a flop. Im not ready to commit my whole stack with 99 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with calling here is that the BB has not yet acted as another poster already observed. BB could easily call for another 200 to hope for a good flop or even be thinking about making a move. So, you are in atight spot here.

Apart from folding, I like reraising to 800 here. Seems to be wrong. That's right! You are risking some here. If you are getting reraised pf you had likely bet into an overpair or AK. OTH, if I were villain and had AA or KK or AK would I put you all-in? Dunno, but I would probably swing for the fences and just call.

If I get to see the flop, I would go all-in on most flops unless it contains 2 out of Q,K,A .

Or you just fold preflop.

[tigerite]

If the BB pushes and UTG folds I am calling 99 every day of the week here. Plus, the BB can't stop and go the flop, Hero acts first. Bad advice.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
If the BB pushes and UTG folds I am calling 99 every day of the week here. Plus, the BB can't stop and go the flop, Hero acts first. Bad advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that the BB can't run a traditional stop and go, but what I said is that they can call here and push almost any flop, with the obvious assumption that Hero checks. I mentioned it specifically as a three-handed stop & go with that in mind. Just because you are second to act doesn't mean you can't run the equivilant of a stop and go - if I'm the BB here I'm either pushing or occasionally calling and pushing almost any flop.

I agree about calling if the BB pushes, and certainly wasn't advocating otherwise, but a lot of people on here won't make that call. Regardless, that doesn't change that I hate flat calling here, taking this three way with a pair of nines. Odds are you've got the best hand right now, so I push. If you think the MP's min-raise plus his tightness indicates significant strength, fold.

I hate flat calling a raise on the bubble out of position, with a player to act behind. Because of the odds you're offering the BB, I believe calling in this instance is a FTP mistake.

You are either slightly ahead or way behind (given his image). Without a 9 I don't see any flop that you can feel confident in, plus your OOP. I agree with Hyperion and fold pf.

[jedinite]

If it wasn't clear, that's also the main message of my original post in this thread (which leads out "I hate just calling here").

Fold preflop, or push if you think the original raiser is demonstrating a tendancy to lay his hand down to your push with the minraise. Calling is terrible in my opinion.