Turn call with a low pair + gutshot

Im having a lot of discussion with a friend regarding this play. Very small-stakes multi-table NL tournament on PP ... my table has been pretty tight and non-aggressive for the last 3 or 4orbits. Table read seems to be moderatly gunning for me as I stole 3 blinds in a row (button, CO and hijack) in a previous orbit and habitually stole a blind at least once an orbit.

(sorry, I couldnt get hand convert working)

blinds - 25 / 50
I have (1325), villian has (3235)

Villian raises to 100 from MP2
Folded to me in the BB with 3s4s, I call


Flop:($225) [ 8h, 3c, Ah ]
I bet 75, Villian calls

Turn: (375) [ 5d ]
I bet 95, Villian raises to 250, ... I ??

I was tired and had a headache, but here were my thoughts on the flop. An obvious bet into the raiser would easily pick up the pot on this table if the raiser whiffed completely. Raiser came off to me as a relatively straightforward player.

His call on the flop didn't give me much information - I figured flush draw or he raised with 2 broadway cards & connected with the ace, or possibly pocket pair ...

Nevertheless, I picked up a gutshot on the turn & decided to fire again. The raise made me think he hit his ace & waited until the turn to pop me. 88, AA and 33 is also a possbility ... but now I'm not sure what to do.

I'm getting ~ 4.65:1 immediate pot odds and I have 900 left in my stack. I have 4 outs for my gutshot, 2 outs for my set & 3 outs to improve to 2-pair (judging by his preflop action I think my 2-pair outs are clean assuming he doesn't have a set). I can't count this as 9 clean outs as he might have 88 or even AA correct? I would like to think the fact that the entire table sees me as an aggressive pot-stealer improves my implied odds as villian would be more likely to push with TPGK. Would it be correct to call this then fold river UI or is this call too crippling to my stack at this early stage of the tourney?

[sublyme]

I think with the simple call on the flop and the "safe" card for him on the turn, he's in there on a pair of ace's and wants you to look him up. I don't think you have much here; I'd muck.

If he's just on a pair of aces ... wouldn't all my 9 outs (4 for gutshot + 3 for 2-pair + 2 for the set) all be good? ... maybe I misunderstood, do you mean aces in the hole?

[sublyme]

You have roughly 18% of hitting one of your outs on the river, and like you said not all of your outs may be clean. Your image is one of stealing, as you stated before. I think there's a good chance that he's going to be looking you up no matter what because you keep taking away pots, and especially if he has top pair he's hanging in there. If you miss the river, you're losing those chips you put in on the turn, and unfortunately you'll be missing that river 82% of the time. I think you should just wait for a better spot rather than trying to push someone out again and getting them even more riled up at you.

of course, the pot odds are close to right to make this call, but I don't like to get too caught up in the nice pot odds when as you said, not all of your outs may be clean. If you hit on of your "outs" and it's bad for you, you're going to lose a lot more chips.

Then again, perhaps I'm too tight in this situation. If you feel like you can run over him, I suppose go with it, but this is purely just my thought process on this hand.

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You have roughly 18% of hitting one of your outs on the river, and like you said not all of your outs may be clean.


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18% - are you discounting one of my 9 outs or taking into account dirty outs? If all my 9 outs are clean I count 24% to improve.

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Your image is one of stealing, as you stated before. I think there's a good chance that he's going to be looking you up no matter what because you keep taking away pots, and especially if he has top pair he's hanging in there.


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True, but doesn't think mean I have a helluvalotta implied odds given that i DO improve and he's holding just top pair?

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If you miss the river, you're losing those chips you put in on the turn, and unfortunately you'll be missing that river 82% of the time. I think you should just wait for a better spot rather than trying to push someone out again and getting them even more riled up at you.


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I think you misunderstood - I never inteded to push them out of the pot. More of the opposite, I wanted to stay in, improve my hand to {2-pair/set/straight} and double up since he's already pissed about my stealing, he won't put me on any of these hands.

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of course, the pot odds are close to right to make this call, but I don't like to get too caught up in the nice pot odds when as you said, not all of your outs may be clean. If you hit on of your "outs" and it's bad for you, you're going to lose a lot more chips.


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This is true ... so how can I count my set / 2pair outs? Are they worth 1/2 an out each? 3/4? My straight outs im sure are all clean ...

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Then again, perhaps I'm too tight in this situation. If you feel like you can run over him, I suppose go with it, but this is purely just my thought process on this hand.

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Maybe i mis-spoke before - I never wanted to run over him. I am tryin to weigh the immediate odds + implied odds + my table image to see if making this 4:1 call is +EV ... and also see if missing & crippling my chip stack is worth the risk at this point

[sublyme]

Well, you can't count any of your heart outs, as they potentially complete a flush, although I don't put villain on a flush draw but it's certainly possible the turn raise was simply trying to drive you out so villain can take down the pot even if the river bricks for him. So that removes 3 right there.

You do have some nice implied odds if you do hit, but taking away your hearts and being generous by giving you half an out for the dirty ones just seems like too much of a risk here to me when you still have a stack to play with. You can never win the tournament early on, but you sure as hell can lose it.

Just my two cents, though.