Stars $500k hand w/TP against another big stack

[Lloyd]

Tough decision here:

Approaching the bubble of the PokerStars $215 $500k Guaranteed. About 350 left and 324 pay. I've been a little aggressive but not overly so. I was in a pot with the villain here when he raised UTG, got two limpers, and I pushed in the BB. Other than that we haven't clashed but he's been very aggressive pre-flop.

Hero: t37554 (top 50 or so)
Villain: t29608

Blinds 800/1600/75

I open in MP w/ATo for t4000. Villain calls me on the button. Everyone else is out. Villain's call was a little surprising as he has raised about 25% of the time pre-flop.

Flop 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif

Pot: t11,075

I bet t7000. Villain pushes remaining t25533.

Pot: t43,607

It's costing me t18533 to call so I'm getting 2.3 to 1 odds.

Do I make the call?

[Exitonly]

i think i call here, i can't imagine a range you're not <2:1 vs.

I'd call and wouldn't be surprised to see him have AJ or AQ. AK is not, as I think he would have re-raised. He could have a flush draw but I think that is less likely.

[Sykes]

How is 20BB a big stack?

Do you have the Tc?

He needs to make this move with a Flush draw/weak ace a decent amount of times before this call becomes profitable for you.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
How is 20BB a big stack?

Do you have the Yc?

[/ QUOTE ]
When you're playing in a Stars tourney and the blinds are 800/1600. We were both well above average at the time and the 2 largest stacks on our table.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How is 20BB a big stack?

Do you have the Yc?

[/ QUOTE ]
When you're playing in a Stars tourney and the blinds are 800/1600. We were both well above average at the time and the 2 largest stacks on our table.

[/ QUOTE ]

True enough. But isn't this more of a reason to fold and then just pick on the little guys?

Also, what are his pre-flop standards? I figure he'd re-raise with AK/JJ+.

Knowing this, would he make this move with 88-TT? What about with a set of 7s? Flush draw?

Whether this call is profitable or not is depending on how loose he is with the all-in. If he's tight and only does this with the goods, folding is best. But if he has done a move like this with a flush draw/mid-pair before, calling now becomes correct.


Against the hand range of

ATo-AQs/KJcc-KQcc

You have a little more than 30% equity in the hand.

[HoldingFolding]

I fold here. I don't see him playing a flush draw or a set like this; not sure what you could have beat here, I reckon you'd see AQ, possibly AJ if he was LAGgsih and AK if he thought he could trap you with your aggression.

[Yuv]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold here. I don't see him playing a flush draw or a set like this; not sure what you could have beat here, I reckon you'd see AQ, possibly AJ if he was LAGgsih and AK if he thought he could trap you with your aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would he play KcQc? I agree that he should fold, cause you will see AJ-AK there about 66% of the time and his stack is big enough to suffer the lose.

[sublyme]

I call; you played AT obviously so you could hit that Ace. You've hit your ace and now you're considering folding to an all-in? I make the call and hope I'm against a weaker ace or someone with a flush draw that was trying to bully me out of the pot near the bubble. Besides, the pot odds are giving you enough IMHO to make this call.

However, reading syke's thought process does make a good amount of sense. Perhaps you should just take a shot at bullying the little people, but I don't think I could just muck here too easily when I know he's playing on the bubble factor.

edit - I got to thinking a little about this and I think he's counting on you having paired your ace; I'm not sure someone would make this push into you and totally give you no credit for an ace. The more I think about it, the more I think this looks like a set...

On the other side, though, your opponent extracts no more value from you with an all-in if you fold. If he calls your bet and fires on the turn against your bet, then he's earned an extra bet. So does he just want you to go away and want you to be fearing the bubble, or is he playing on the fact that you know he's doing this and will think he's bluffing and he really has a powerful hand?

Man, I've analyzed this hand waaaay too hard; you should probably just take an Occam's Razor approach here and figure that the simplest explanation is the correct one, and I think he's just bullying you. But that's just my thought.

Hero played AT to win the blinds/antes.

Is villain reckless enough to play A8 or something similar in this fashion? If the answer is no, I think it's a clear fold. If villain is the sort of player that calls with weaker hands and raises stronger hands with great frequency, then I think it's a clear call. It's all on hero's read.

[HoldingFolding]

[ QUOTE ]
You've hit your ace and now you're considering folding to an all-in?

[/ QUOTE ]

First, when Lloyd made the pre flop raise I'm sure there was a semi-bluff element in there - AT is not that great a hand.
Second, he hit his ace, then told his oppponent he'd hit Ace (or perhaps, from his opponents perspective, was seeing how good his middle pair was), but his opponent came over the top; so either he's not scared of your Ace or as Yuv pointed out he's got a flush draw and wants you to lay down, but my money's on AQ/AK.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You've hit your ace and now you're considering folding to an all-in?

[/ QUOTE ]

First, when Lloyd made the pre flop raise I'm sure there was a semi-bluff element in there - AT is not that great a hand.
Second, he hit his ace, then told his oppponent he'd hit Ace (or perhaps, from his opponents perspective, was seeing how good his middle pair was), but his opponent came over the top; so either he's not scared of your Ace or as Yuv pointed out he's got a flush draw and wants you to lay down, but my money's on AQ/AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

So a CB means an A? Okey-dokey.

Is there any reason why villian can't have 88-TT here?

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
s there any reason why villian can't have 88-TT here?

[/ QUOTE ]

KK could flatcall here too. And those along with weaker Aces are why i say it's a call.

[MLG]

I don't think you make the big money in this event by folding in these spots. If the villain is really aggresive then AK is pretty unlikely, and you even have to discount AQ since he didnt reraise. AJ would worry me, but I would also put A9s in his range. Also clearly a flush draw, and a lot of different flush draw combos. Against that range you have to call. Suck it up and stick it in.

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any reason why villian can't have 88-TT here?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the part of the hand that's read dependent. What is villain capable of making this play with? In a vacuum, I think this is an easy laydown, but Hero has the read that villain is extremely loose.

edit: htf did I delete the paragraph below before submitting?

I think the overwhelming evidence supports a call from Hero. We assume that because villain is a frequent raiser that he would reraise with AK and probably AQ. Our range has to be increased on the bottom end because Villain is loose, and decreased on the top end because Villain is aggressive. The hands that worry me most are AJ and 77. If that's the case, nh.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
but Hero has the read that villain is extremely loose.

[/ QUOTE ]
I never said he was loose. I said he was aggressive pre-flop. That's the only read I had on him, and it surprised me that he didn't re-raise or fold pre-flop.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
s there any reason why villian can't have 88-TT here?

[/ QUOTE ]

KK could flatcall here too. And those along with weaker Aces are why i say it's a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you flatcall with QQ/KK here? This is one of those times I revert to level 1 thinking and just re-raise with QQ/KK here since I really hate an A high flop.

Also, I don't see a weaker A calling on the button since the raise didn't come from late position, it came from MP which could signify strength. However, if OP raised from MP3/CO, then I could easily see this turn into a call.

I'll definately tell you this, it is close and one of those hands where it defines the whole tournament for you.

[Exitonly]

i wouldn't flat call QQ, ,but i'd occasionally flat call KK.

And i think A9s maybe A8s would call here.

Not entirely sure what range to put him on, but I'll give it a shot.. Certainly 22 and 77 are in there. Clubbed broadways are all possible (going to assume T not club). A9-AQ, A7s. I'd say there's a chance he does this with a mid pair, so I'll throw in 99 and TT. Against this range, it's a call:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.0657 % 47.04% 07.02% { TT-99, 77, 22, AQs-A9s, A7s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, AQo-A9o }
Hand 2: 45.9343 % 38.91% 07.02% { AsTh }

It's about the same if you have the Tc:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.0140 % 44.78% 07.23% { TT-99, 77, 22, AQs-A9s, A7s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, AQo-A9o }
Hand 2: 47.9860 % 40.75% 07.23% { AsTc }

Also, I completely ignored the possibility of a pure bluff, so you may be favorite against the range.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but Hero has the read that villain is extremely loose.

[/ QUOTE ]
I never said he was loose. I said he was aggressive pre-flop. That's the only read I had on him, and it surprised me that he didn't re-raise or fold pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct, my error. I must then amend my analysis to not include the lower end, but keep the higher end in there. Less likely to have AK, slightly more likely to have A9. Potentially more likely to have 22, 77-TT.

[HoldingFolding]

[ QUOTE ]
So a CB means an A? Okey-dokey.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also mentioned pocket pairs...

My point is opponent is not scared, and given we're approaching the bubble and since most people do not play the bubble like MLG I give greater credence to the probability of a made hand, that's not afraid of that board. I also think that if villain views Lloyd as aggressive he knows he will not be able to get him to lay down - this to me also makes a fush draw less likely.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I also think that if villain views Lloyd as aggressive he knows he will not be able to get him to lay down - this to me also makes a fush draw less likely.

[/ QUOTE ]
Remember, I said that I had been a little aggressive but not overly so. So I definitely don't think he's putting me on complete trash here.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll definately tell you this, it is close and one of those hands where it defines the whole tournament for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Absolutely.

[KingDan]

I'd call.

People like to jam AK/AQ preflop. I think a lag would reraise you with 77...

Getting 2-1 I call.

How does your answer change if this was rainbow?

As many other posters have said, he seems to be bullying or on a flush draw. If he has a set of 7s or a better Ace, why the raise? Most good players would call there and hope for another bet on the turn. His reraise all-in looks to be a semi-bluff, but it's still a sticky situation. I call here the majority of the time, and your read on him is so important.

I want to also add that threads like this are why I check this site 10+ times a day. Thank you everyone for what you post, even if it's not popular. There is so much to think about, and 2+2 helps me learn tons!

CALL! (and tell us what happened)

[ QUOTE ]
As many other posters have said, he seems to be bullying or on a flush draw. If he has a set of 7s or a better Ace, why the raise? Most good players would call there and hope for another bet on the turn. His reraise all-in looks to be a semi-bluff, but it's still a sticky situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why good players push with 77.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As many other posters have said, he seems to be bullying or on a flush draw. If he has a set of 7s or a better Ace, why the raise? Most good players would call there and hope for another bet on the turn. His reraise all-in looks to be a semi-bluff, but it's still a sticky situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the reverse reverse psychology? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

This is why good players push with 77.

[/ QUOTE ]

[kuro]

I think you're probably stuck calling getting 2:1.

The bigger question is that if you're stuck calling should you have ever bet the flop in the first place.

[Lloyd]

I called. Getting 2 to 1 odds I thought that the possibility he was on a flush or had something like A9s gave me more than enough equity. He had AK and I didn't improve.

[ QUOTE ]
I called. Getting 2 to 1 odds I thought that the possibility he was on a flush or had something like A9s gave me more than enough equity. He had AK and I didn't improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you think AK was in his range? Do you think he played it well?

[beenben]

I think the chances are fair that he has A7 22 or 77 based upon his push (or a bigger ace) and I fold.

[Lloyd]

I thought that he had a hand that he really didn't want to commit to pre-flop, or a monster like AA/KK that he was trapping with. I guess that could include AK (in terms of not committing to the hand) but it surprised me given how aggressive he was playing.

Both folding and calling are reasonable plays.. his AK all-in was really taking the safe route.. against one player i'm not too afraid of a 2-flush board, I usually like to make as much money off my opponent as possible, in case he decides to fold to a big bet.. Villain opted to just plug it, with TPTK, safe play I guess

Your call wasn't bad all things considered, anytime you're getting over 2:1 it is a tough one to lay down wih 3 conceivable hands that are beating you (AJ, AQ,AK) and maybe one less probable hand (77)

I do say that I see people semibluff all-in with a flush draw all the time at my limits, so that's a possibility

What I factor into folding is simple: He knows there's an ace on the flop, and he knows that a pf raise in MP could be an A-x combo.. any person at this point thinking logically I don't think can have <A-9 calling a PF raise (even if aggro) and then going all-in nearing the bubble.. also crucial time in tournament, people make "safer" decisions nearing the bubble and probably won't risk their stack on something that isn't too strong.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but Hero has the read that villain is extremely loose.

[/ QUOTE ]
I never said he was loose. I said he was aggressive pre-flop. That's the only read I had on him, and it surprised me that he didn't re-raise or fold pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Great points by all and thought provoking.

What I don't see addressed so far in this thread is his read on you. He may have only called your raise with his AK because he put you on TT, JJ, QQ (or less likely AK KK AA). Of course once the flop came he liked his hand and figures his all in check raise will most likely win, worst case tie.

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Pete]

i sock my monitor and then fold the hand. i would put him on aq or aj.

[DonT77]

Hey Lloyd - Interesting hand.

I think there are a few reasons to call and a few reasons to fold-

reasons to call: you're getting 2.3:1 with TP (which is probably +EV given his range), winning gives you a nice stack, losing doesn't bust you, he could be representing the an Ace thinking that you don't have one - especially if you've been CB'ing most of the time, and lastly why would he push a really strong hand like a set or AK here - as the flush draw is remote given the suit of the Ace on board.

reasons to fold: you have him covered and you'll be getting 2.3:1 on a call - so he's gotta think the chances of you calling him is pretty strong with a decent hand like AQ, AJ, AT etc. and after all he is "putting his tourney life at stake" /images/graemlins/laugh.gif, if you call and lose you'll be short-stacked (~5BBs) and may not make the money, and his LP PF call is suspicious from an aggressive player - like a pair, or a slowplayed monster.

This is a close decision. Personally, I might have folded and waited for a better opportunity since you are nearing the bubble and that is a spot where cEV and $EV diverge. I think if his stack was like twice my stack or more - I might give a bully bluff more credit and be slightly more likely to call, but given that you have him covered and the pot odds he is giving you I tend to give his raise more credence since I tend to see fewer all-in bluffs near the bubble. JMO.

[adanthar]

This is an interesting hand, but a lot of the replies get it wrong.

First and foremost: KK-QQ don't coldcall preflop to push an A-high flop when someone makes the standard 2/3 continuation bet, and neither does any other pair. I know it happens once in a great while in a $5 tournament, but c'mon.

In a more typical situation, you could virtually always narrow down his holdings to (set, A7s, ace something.) A flush draw is *possible* but the chance of one is small, because the ace is out and you're gonna get 2.3:1 to call his push/basically said that you have one.

But that's not the end, because we can narrow his hand range further. He's very aggro PF *on the bubble*, has raised UTG and folded to a push before, and you outstack him. He's not coldcalling your raise with a weak ace, because he's smart enough to take advantage of the bubble and the last thing he wants to do is take you on. He's also not calling you with twos - maybe ITM with deeper stacks when he can take it away from you postflop, but not here. The fact is that people that are aggro on the bubble are generally good, and once he coldcalls a bigger stack PF, his range narrows down a lot.

So, after you tell him you have an ace and he pushes, I put him on exactly AK-AQs, (small chance of) AA/77. A8s is really wishful thinking (as is AJ). Any other thought process, and you're assuming he's a donkey when the chances are that he's not.

PS: I also don't mind checking this flop, although a lot of times that I'd do that here, it would be because I'm playing the player and not the situation.

[schwza]

you have to raise this pre-flop. it's bubble time, so you're going to steal a lot of pots. it's nice to have AT instead of 68 because there are probably short-stacks who you're PC'ed against, so you'd like a hand with decent showdown value.

i'd fold on the flop. i think that the smooth-call is likely to be a trap with AQ+/QQ+, and i don't think QQ/KK pushes very often. i don't think that villain is that likely to screw around this close to the bubble.

[John W]

He's either crazy or has you beat. I would fold.