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View Full Version : 2nd nuts vs. decent player


11-06-2005, 07:55 PM
Villain here is a decent player. I suck. Anybody call here, I don't /images/graemlins/frown.gif

PokerStars Game #299046519: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.25/$0.50) -
Seat 1: xo*Kisses*xo ($105.95 in chips)
Seat 2: aggie14333 ($48 in chips)
Seat 3: CESpidey ($153.05 in chips)
Seat 4: SteveL91 ($58.65 in chips)
Seat 5: fish1 ($30.95 in chips)
Seat 6: Vagabond ($49.25 in chips)
Seat 7: Spellmen ($46.85 in chips)
Seat 8: asdf__asdf ($47 in chips)
Seat 9: KKush ($51.10 in chips)
asdf__asdf: posts small blind $0.25
KKush: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to xo*Kisses*xo [9h 8c Kc Jd]
xo*Kisses*xo: calls $0.50
aggie14333: folds
CESpidey: calls $0.50
SteveL91: folds
fish1: folds
Vagabond: calls $0.50
Spellmen: folds
asdf__asdf: calls $0.25
KKush: checks
*** FLOP *** [Tc 9c 4d]
asdf__asdf: checks
KKush: bets $2.40
xo*Kisses*xo: calls $2.40
CESpidey: calls $2.40
Vagabond: calls $2.40
asdf__asdf: folds
*** TURN *** [Tc 9c 4d] [5c]
KKush: bets $11.50
xo*Kisses*xo...

11-06-2005, 09:04 PM
IMHO, 2nd flush is the most difficult hand to play in PLO. If it's good you need to protect it against sets, and if it's not you need to minimize your losses. Mathematically, it's about as good as an average boat, but the value of a suited Ace is so obvious preflop that there's an increased chance that it's out there.

On a full table, the nut flush will be out there 1 time in 3, and at this level most people will be willing to limp into any pot with any suited ace so the threat is very real. Furthermore, there are 2 other people who have stayed in this pot on a flush draw board so there's a very good chance that one of them has it even if KKush doesn't. In my limited experience, 2nd flush is a much better hand when you're doing the betting and everyone else is passive (at these levels anyway). They don't stand up well when a non-crazy is potting. KKush is definitely not a crazy either.

KKush could very well have had a flush and str8 draw and is testing the field to see if his Q flush is good. The problem is that he could very well have had a hand like AQJx with the nut flush draw. Usually though, players will check-raise OOP with this hand in the hopes that 2nd nut flush will bet at it. But by no means will they always do it. Has he been pushing with the nuts OOP?

My personnal feeling, based on the few hands that I've played against him, is that he probably has the nut flush here. But that's a player specific read.

Overall, I'm convinced that there is no such thing as optimal 2nd flush play because the odds that you are well ahead or well behind are so high. It's an extremely high variance hand, and I believe that leaves you with no choice but to play the specific player. And that is a fold here I think (esp with opposition left to act after you since a call gives a set pot odds to call as well).

Am i rambling?

TheRempel
11-06-2005, 09:14 PM
Unless you know that the villain will pot the nut flush draw, and then pot it again when he hits his draw, you have to push here. You should have pushed the flop.

11-06-2005, 09:16 PM
with only 6 outs to the nuts and 4 or 5 players to act behind me i thought raising the flop was awful.

edit, i didnt think he would lead with the NFD on the flop into 5 or 6 people. Then when he potted the turn I was 95% sure he had it.

11-06-2005, 09:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Has he been pushing with the nuts OOP?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, I had only been at 2 tables with him for around 10 minutes or so, this was finishing my first full orbit at this table. I just remember having a mental note that he's not a total donk.

[ QUOTE ]
Am i rambling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well yes, but at least it was with useful information. Thanks for the post mr. acorn.

TheRempel
11-06-2005, 09:54 PM
Here's a little PLO tip: when you're raising, they don't have to be nut outs.

11-06-2005, 10:49 PM
IMO getting all in on this flop is chip spewing, feel free to tell me why it isn't considering the bet before me and players to act behind me.

joewatch
11-06-2005, 11:10 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Here's a little PLO tip: when you're raising, they don't have to be nut outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Remp on this one. You should be raising the flop here, or folding. Once you flat call, you are giving good odds to a ton of players behind you who could have good wraps or the nut flush draw. If you get it all-in on the flop, you are only a 45% dog to a set. And you may very well get middle or bottom set to fold.

11-06-2005, 11:15 PM
but then again i get called by top/middle set and also the NFD so if I get called I am behind no matter what and not a favorite.

edit in a worse case scenerio i get called by a set and the nfd which might also have a straight draw.

TheRempel
11-07-2005, 12:48 AM
Calling here with 6 'nut outs' is spewage. You're inviting people to call behind with far weaker hands. In this situation you would like hands that have a chance of splitting the pot with you to fold.

If the other player would fold bottom or middle set even 10% of the time, you have a +ev situation. You are also giving a bare nut flush draw incorrect odds to call by raising. If you have trouble with this you should probably not play any sort of k-suited hand.

11-07-2005, 01:09 AM
I'm giving them incorrect odds but they have the best hand/draw and they will call that's how it is at the lower limits and I'm sure you know that having played with you many times.

[ QUOTE ]
If you have trouble with this you should probably not play any sort of k-suited hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play the K-suited because I feel I can get away from it when I feel beat.

TheRempel
11-07-2005, 01:22 AM
At what point did you actually want advice? I would not call the turn because I would not be in a situation where I would have to call the turn. The money would already be in the pot or I would have folded.

11-07-2005, 02:04 AM
Here's some other usefull information about flopping the 2nd nut flush on a full table:

1 time in 3 the nut flush is out there, 1 time in 4 the Ace will be in no one's hand, the other 5 times in 12 someone will have the naked A.

The problem, of course, is that a suited A is much more likely to call the flop than an unsuited so the statistic that you will face 5 naked Aces for every 4 nut flushes is somewhat misleading. At lower levels enough people will call with an unsuited A to make it at least an even split however. For tighter players I'd say the nuts is significantly more likely.

In your case, KKush was in a blind though so he could have anything. Furthermore, because KKush lead the flop I think he has one of 3 hands : the A flush, the Q flush, or (if he's a good agressive player) top/2nd set. I say "if he's a good agressive player" becuase such players know that 2/3 of the time no one has the nuts here and he can frequently pick up the pot. If someone mini-raises him he still has the boat to draw to, if someone just calls he probably has an under flush or another set. If its potted back at him he can safely fold.

Just calling with the 2nd nut is too weak for optimal play I think. That leaves folding or raising. Unfortunately, in your case, the pot is now large enough that almost any raise gets you pot commited against the $50 stacks. The only exception might be a mini-raise but it's pretty close there.

I agree with remp and joe, the time to act was on the flop with a raise. It's fairly cheap at that point. If you don't think your flush draw is good and you're only counting 6 outs you shouldn't call the flop. If you think they're good (or that you can make them good by forcing a simple nut flush draw to fold) you should be willing to push. I must admit that I didn't fully appreciate this fact until I started looking into your situation deeper - primarily because I assumed the odds of a nut flush draw being out there was much higher than it really is.

However, if pushing the flop is +EV it's not a big plus. Therfore, if you're not confortable pushing with 2nd nut flushes the answer is simple: fold. You'll never become a top player if you don't learn how to play them aggressively however. I'm still learning myself - 80% of the reason I'm posting here is to work my ideas out publicly and hopefully get some feedback.

11-07-2005, 02:33 AM
you're right, I don't want advice. I won't post on this forum again. See you at the tables anyways.

beset7
11-07-2005, 03:56 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Villain here is a decent player. I suck. Anybody call here, I don't /images/graemlins/frown.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
you're right, I don't want advice. I won't post on this forum again. See you at the tables anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Tilt
11-07-2005, 11:16 AM
I disagree with alot of the advice out there on this one. Hey maybe we finally have a controversial PLO hi hand to discuss!

I don't see why you would push this on the flop at this level. That is spewing chips IMO.

There is no fold equity against the hands you want to push out against this group. You repot this flop, and you will often wind up in a multiway drawing to an OESD with overstraight possibilities against a nut flush and a set. Your equity sucks. Most time if you you win you'll probably split.

Furthermore, you push this flop, and you eliminate the value of position against the flop aggressor. Play some poker for God sakes!

But, to the OP, I wouldn't just call that flop. I would min-raise. I would do that because I need cheap information. If players behind me call, I know I am usually up against a better flush. If someone behind pushes, they probably have a set. If no one calls, and the original aggressor pushes, thats fine, now I know I am either up against a wrap + flush hand or a set. We are good to go against that...since against the range of hands you are against in that scenario you are +EV I believe.

If someone flat calls behind, and then the original aggressor pushes, I muck.

If everyone just calls my min-raise, the turn is where you can play poker, using position against the original aggressor. If a blank hits, bet 1/3 the pot, setting them up for a river fold on another blank. If the board pairs the 4 or 9, I'd shove in if checked to, since everyone calling my min-raise on the flop suggests that you can represent the overfull. If the board leaves me the second nuts, I would tread carefully, maybe even check it through to read the action behind me.

Sure, I might make a mistake and shove into the nuts or fold the best hand this way sometimes, but more often it will be the reverse, where I get the best hand or draw to fold or best case trap someone into a freeroll on the turn. Better yet, I will often avoid ending all in against this:

Omaha Hi: 528 enumerated boards containing Tc 9c 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc 8c Jd 9h 46 8.71 421 79.73 61 11.55 0.145
Ac 2c Td 9d 236 44.70 292 55.30 0 0.00 0.447
4s 6c 6h 4h 82 15.53 446 84.47 0 0.00 0.155
Js Qc 4c Kh 103 19.51 364 68.94 61 11.55 0.253

joewatch
11-07-2005, 09:01 PM
I understand where you are coming from Tilt, but I can't agree with what you have said -

First - I don't think pushing with a good draw (at least OESD+flush draw) on the flop is ever wrong at any level with 100bb stacks. Not everyone is a total donkey and willing to go all-in with just the nut flush draw. And this is a good habit to get into especially for somebody who is planning to move up eventualy. The mistake you don't want to make at the lower limits is bluffing when you have nothing, such as the naked ace bluff.

Second, although you have position, you don't want to have to make tough decisions like whether you are being freerolled or if your non-nut flush is good if you make it on the turn. If this were live, OK, but there is no way you can get a read online.

Finally, IMHO, minraising is just about always incorrect on every street except the river.