On the fly thinking -- out counting exercise

[Greg J]

When we post responses to hands on whether someone should call or fold we make our responses based on the perceived number of outs Hero has. This is good, and what we should be doing. However, we do so with the luxury of time. In the heat of the moment, when you have 4 or more tables going at once we don’t often have the time to sit back and thoroughly count outs. We have to utilize “on the fly” thinking. We don’t only have to make good decisions, but we to make them fast.

Now, one of the best ways to improve on the fly thinking is to review hands, read books, and study the game. There is a lot of good advice on the board, but I don’t see much discussion that openly invokes the importance on the fly thinking. It doesn’t take it into consideration that we are making rushed decisions.

Because we have to make so many rushed decisions, we are going to make some errors. That is just the way it is. What we have to work in is minimizing those mistakes.

So this post is an exercise in on the fly thinking. Don't look yet, but below I have a series of hypothetical flop situations. Here is what I want you to do: Get a piece of paper and mark down how many outs you think you have to improve. Take about 5 second for each decision and then write down a number. Don’t cheat! Don’t think about position, and don’t consider specific action. (I know that action will tend to limit the number of outs you think you have, but that would just complicate the exercise.) I want you to have only one salient assumption: you are behind to top pair or better. Remember to discount outs, as not all outs are always clean. (Overcards are typically counted as half outs, backdoor draws are valued more if they are draws to the nuts, etc.) Be sure to include half outs (some answers might end on .5, or even .25). Ready?

Okay, scroll down and begin.














































You have: <font color="white">……… ………..……</font>Board:

1) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>K/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif

2) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif

3) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>9/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

4) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif

5) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

6) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

7) A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>5/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

8) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif

9) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif

10) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif<font color="white">………………………</font>T/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif

11) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif

12) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif

13) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

14) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif

15) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif

16) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>7/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif

17) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>6/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif

18) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>K/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif

19) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>J/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

20) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="white">………………………</font>A/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Okay, now you have done your on the fly calculations. Now beside each answer, I want you to write the answer again, except this time I want you to take as much time as you need for each answer. Think it over, study the board if you have to. Then reply to this and post both answers. For example your answer might look like:

1) 8/7
2) 12/10.5
3) 11/11
4) …etc.
all the way to the last question.

If we have any disagreements, I want us to discuss them. (The above answers are not mine per say, just hypothetical and not necessarily correct, so don’t argue with those.)

EDIT: I screwed up in question 19. You already have 2 pair there, so you proabably have good reason to think you are ahead (but if you ARE behind, drawing thin obviously).

[1337 skills]

1) 6/6.5
2) 9/10
3) 3/4
4) 9/7.5
5) 10/11.75
6) 6.5/6
7) 14/13
8) 2.5/3.5
9) 8/8
10) 4/4
11) 5.5/5.5
12) 1.5/1.75
13) 1.25/1.25
14) 2/2
15) 8/8
16) 6.5/6.5
17) 6/3.5
18) 4/4
19) 5.25/5
20) 3.25/3.5

[milesdyson]

my first go around
edit: i know i'm supposed to go and take some time, but too much goes through my head to actually take time to do this. like, "what if the guy has this and this guy has this and my cat is scratching me and there's a flush draw out and what about the times i get outdrawn on, etc." so consider my answers to be on both sides of the /.

1. 5
2. 8
3. 5
4. 6
5. 14
6. 4.5
7. 12
8. 3.5
9. 8
10. 2.5
11. 4
12. 1.5
13. 1.5
14. 2
15. 7
16. 6
17. 3
18. 4
19. 5
20. 3.5

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
1) 6/6.5
2) 9/10
3) 3/4
4) 9/7.5
5) 10/11.75
6) 6.5/6
7) 14/13
8) 2.5/3.5
9) 8/8
10) 4/4
11) 5.5/5.5
12) 1.5/1.75
13) 1.25/1.25
14) 2/2
15) 8/8
16) 6.5/6.5
17) 6/3.5
18) 4/4
19) 5.25/5
20) 3.25/3.5

[/ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify, this format is excactly what I was looking for.

[VoraciousReader]

1)6.5/7
2)10/9
3)7/7
4)4/6
5)12/12
6)6.5/6
7)12/12
8)5/6.5
9)7/7
10)5.5/4.5
11)5.5/4.5
12)2/1.5
13)3/2.5
14)2/2
15)8/7
16)3.5/7
17)4/3.5
18)4/4
19)4.5/5.5
20)3.5/3.5

This was very interesting. I learned that:

1) I need to look harder for double-gutters and bdsds.
2) I need to remember to discount if my outs are putting 3 to a flush on board.
3) I need to remember to discount if there's an excellent chance my out is to a split pot.
4) That sometimes I have a hard time deciding how much to assign a bdsd. (Actually I already knew that, but it reminded me to review out counting in SSHE.)

[TennesseeKid]

For the ones that are incorrect, I would seriously appreciate someone to explain why the outs ARE counted as such.Thanks:

1) 4.5/7
2) 10/10
3) 3/2.5
4) 3/4
5) 15/18
6) 6.5/6.5
7) 15/15.5
8) 1.5/1
9) 10/8.5
10)5/3.5
11)5.5/4.5
12)2/1
13)8/8
14)2/2
15)8/8
16)6.5/6.5
17)4/3.5
18)4/4
19)5.5/5.5
20)3.5/3.5

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
5) 15/18

[/ QUOTE ]

I would discount your overcards much more than this

[PokerSparky]

1. 4/4.5
2. 11/9.5
3. 6/5.5
4. 3.5/7
5. 12/13
6. 4/4
7. 12/12
8. 3.5/3.5
9. 5/6.5
10. 3/3
11. 4/4.5
12. 1.5/1.5
13. 1/1
14. 2/2
15. 6.5/6
16. 4/5
17. 3.5/3.5
18. 4/4
19. 5/5
20. 3.5/3.5

[numeri]

1. 6.5/6
2. 10/10
3. 5/6
4. 8/8
5. 16/15.5
6. 6/5
7. 13/13
8. 4/5
9. 9/7
10. 4.5/4
11. 5.5/5.5
12. 2/2
13. 3/2
14. 2/2
15. 6/6
16. 6.5/6.5
17. 4/4
18. 4/4
19. 5.5/5
20. 3.5/3.5

[WordWhiz]

1. 7/5
2. 11/10
3. 5/4.75
4. 7/7
5. 15/14.5
6. 6/5
7. 14/13.5
8. 5/5
9. 8/7.5
10. 5/3.5
11. 5/5
12. 1.5/1.75
13. 2/2
14. 2/2
15. 8/8
16. 6.5/6
17. 3.5/3.5
18. 4/4
19. 2.5/2
20. 3.5/3.5

The only one I seem to disagree with all the previous poster on is number 19. Look closely. We have two pair, but the problem explicitly says that we're behind. Opponent does not have AQ, KK, etc. He can only have QQ, JJ, 44, QJ, or Q4 (unlikely). Given that range, we're drawing very thin.

[nomadtla]

1)5.75/6
2)10/11
3)7/6.5
4)7/6.5
5)12.5/14
6)5/5.75
7)13/14
8)3/3
9)8/7.5
10)4.5/3.5
11)4/5
12)2/2
13)2.5/2
14)2/2
15)7/7.5
16)5/6.5
17)3/2.5
18)3/4
19)5.5/5.5
20)3.5/3.5


Great exercise Greg. More of these "on the fly" questions would help us all I think.

[Greg J]

I screwed up in writing question 19. That was my fault.

[VoraciousReader]

[ QUOTE ]
I screwed up in writing question 19. That was my fault.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pssst, Greg...as my bf the teacher would say...you didn't screw up, you included a trick question!

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I screwed up in writing question 19. That was my fault.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pssst, Greg...as my bf the teacher would say...you didn't screw up, you included a trick question!

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Once upon a time I was a middle school teacher, so I can appreciate this! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[TennesseeKid]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
5) 15/18

[/ QUOTE ]

I would discount your overcards much more than this

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense. How do you get to .25 outs or such? I suppose on very weak bdsd's??

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
5) 15/18

[/ QUOTE ]

I would discount your overcards much more than this

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense. How do you get to .25 outs or such? I suppose on very weak bdsd's??

[/ QUOTE ]

An example
11) K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ………………………A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

You might count your inside straight draw as good for about 2.75 outs since a 2 will not give you the nuts and the 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif puts a three flush on board

[Greg J]

Here are some answers. Some of you disagree with some of these, so I have tried to explain the reasoning. I may be incorrect in a couple of answers, so please point out counter arguments. I'm not a guy that will keep arguing I'm right after being shown I was wrong (at least I like to think I'm not), so don't be afraid to try to prove me wrong about something. I have offered some explanations on more of the more difficult and potentially contenscious ones.

1) 7
2) 9 (7 for OESD and 2 for overcards that might make someone else a straight)
3) 7
4) 6.5 (see the double gutter?)
5) 11.25
6) 6.5
7) 12
8) 3.5
9) 8.5 (I'm only counting .5 outs for the set outs, and that is mainly for a boat redraw)
10) 4.5
11) 5.75 (BD nut flush + discounted inside straight)
12) 1.5 (one of yr 5s is a spade!)
13) 1.5 (this one gives me a headache!)
14) 2
15) 6.5 (since it's ass ended)
16) 6.75
17) 3
18) 4
19) f up by me, but if yr behind let's call it 2.5 (I like to think I'm ahead here most of the time of course)
20) 4 (BD to the nut flush)

[Greg J]

Bump for the night crowd. Plus I wanted some discussion on this (I just found one HUGE error that I corrected).

[Walker]

I see you fixed the answer to #11. I think #13 is worth more like 2.5 outs.

Nice post chief!

[PokerSparky]

[ QUOTE ]

11) 5.75 (BD nut flush + discounted inside straight)


[/ QUOTE ]

I still don't see how you're getting this many outs for this draw? The most I can legitimately come up with is 5. 3.5 (for the gutshot -- you have to discount the 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif) + 1.5 (the max I'd give a bdfd).

6.5/6.5
7/7
6.5/6.5
7/7
15/14 (Qh)
4/4.5 (bdfd)
13/13.25 (wheel)
3/2.75 (bdfd only .25)
7.5/7.5
4/3.75 (-.5 Jh +.25 bdsd)
5/4 (wtf was i thinking?)
1.5/1.5
0?/0
2/2
7/7
5/5
3.5/3.5
4/4
-3/-3
3/3.25 (1.25bdfd)

[Greg J]

3.5 for the gutshot (discounted). You can give nut BDFDs 2 full outs. I counted another .25 for the chance of running 6, 7 or 7, 6 (discounted).

Great post.... here are my 'counterarguments':
Each one will be your answer first, then mine

1) Y:7 M:6.5
Two tens guaranteed, 2 Aces (discounted), 1.5 bdfd, 1 bdsd
did you give 1.5 for bdsd or 2.5 for aces?
2) Y:9 M:7
Oops. totally forgot overcards.... looking again here i think we are closer to 9.5
3) Y:7 M:7 hooray!
4) Y:6.5 M:7
no idea why its low? both straight draws are to the nuts, we cant discount more than 1 for the flush right?
5) Y:11.25 M:14
9 hearts, 3 kings are all guaranteed so no idea how you get under 12. i think you have to give at least another 2.5 outs for overcards too, that answer should be 14.5 or possibly even 15?
6) Y:6.5 M:4.5
2 threes are guaranteed, 2 for the queen, .5 for the bdfd?
7) Y:12 M:13.25
i give 4 for overcards here, probably the difference. then .25 for sucker wheel and 9 obvious fd.
8) Y:3.5 M:2.75
2 Js, .5 bdsd, .25 bdfd? fairly debatable could easily be anywhere between these 2 answers imo
9) Y:8.5 M:7.5
Straight isnt to the nuts, J gives QK the nuts, or any Q a redraw. I think set outs are almost negligent here, the boat redraw isnt more than .25 for sure
10) Y:4.5 M:3.75
2 Ts, 1.5J, .25 bdsd?
11) Y:5.75 M:4
3.5 sd 1.5 bdfd, yeah should be about 5 i guess i was right the first time
12) Y:1.5 M:1.5 Finally....
13) Y:1.5 M:0
1.5? is this for the weak bdfd and the bdsd? i really dont think you can make it anywhere near 1.5....
14) Y:2 M:2 pretty obvious
15) Y:6.5 M:7
you discount 1.5? i discount 1.... fairly debatable? maybe 6.75?
16) Y:6.75 M:5
maybe 6 actually? 2.5 aces 2 fives 1.5 bdnfd
17) Y:3 M:3.5
i only discount .5 for the flush
18) Y:4 M:4 /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
19) Y:2.5 M:-3 depends on how you read it.
20) Y:4 M:3.25
probably 3.5? where does the extra .5 come from? bdsd?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
Great post.... here are my 'counterarguments':
Each one will be your answer first, then mine[/quote[
Thanks
[ QUOTE ]

1) Y:7 M:6.5
Two tens guaranteed, 2 Aces (discounted), 1.5 bdfd, 1 bdsd
did you give 1.5 for bdsd or 2.5 for aces?


[/ QUOTE ]
A BD draw to the nuts is worth 2 outs.

[ QUOTE ]

2) Y:9 M:7
Oops. totally forgot overcards.... looking again here i think we are closer to 9.5

[/ QUOTE ]
Overcard outs are likely to make someone else a straight.

[ QUOTE ]

3) Y:7 M:7 hooray!

[/ QUOTE ]
We both rock!

[ QUOTE ]

4) Y:6.5 M:7
no idea why its low? both straight draws are to the nuts, we cant discount more than 1 for the flush right?


[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, you might be right on this one.

[ QUOTE ]

5) Y:11.25 M:14
9 hearts, 3 kings are all guaranteed so no idea how you get under 12. i think you have to give at least another 2.5 outs for overcards too, that answer should be 14.5 or possibly even 15?

[/ QUOTE ]
A Queen can make someone a straight.

[ QUOTE ]

6) Y:6.5 M:4.5
2 threes are guaranteed, 2 for the queen, .5 for the bdfd?


[/ QUOTE ]
two 3s, 3 Qs, and 1.5 for the third nut bdfd.

[ QUOTE ]

7) Y:12 M:13.25
i give 4 for overcards here, probably the difference. then .25 for sucker wheel and 9 obvious fd.


[/ QUOTE ]
I only count 3 for overcards. I didnt consider the sucker straight draw. You have a point there. 12.25 then?

[ QUOTE ]

8) Y:3.5 M:2.75
2 Js, .5 bdsd, .25 bdfd? fairly debatable could easily be anywhere between these 2 answers imo


[/ QUOTE ]
.75 for both BD draws.

[ QUOTE ]

9) Y:8.5 M:7.5
Straight isnt to the nuts, J gives QK the nuts, or any Q a redraw. I think set outs are almost negligent here, the boat redraw isnt more than .25 for sure

[/ QUOTE ]
I think 8 is right here. I think you are right about the J outs.

[ QUOTE ]

10) Y:4.5 M:3.75
2 Ts, 1.5J, .25 bdsd?

[/ QUOTE ]
You can count the Js more than that I think.

[ QUOTE ]

11) Y:5.75 M:4
3.5 sd 1.5 bdfd, yeah should be about 5 i guess i was right the first time


[/ QUOTE ]
Outside chance at running 6,7

[ QUOTE ]

12) Y:1.5 M:1.5 Finally....

[/ QUOTE ]
YEAH!

[ QUOTE ]

13) Y:1.5 M:0
1.5? is this for the weak bdfd and the bdsd? i really dont think you can make it anywhere near 1.5....
14) Y:2 M:2 pretty obvious
15) Y:6.5 M:7
you discount 1.5? i discount 1.... fairly debatable? maybe 6.75?
16) Y:6.75 M:5
maybe 6 actually? 2.5 aces 2 fives 1.5 bdnfd
17) Y:3 M:3.5
i only discount .5 for the flush
18) Y:4 M:4 /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
19) Y:2.5 M:-3 depends on how you read it.
20) Y:4 M:3.25
probably 3.5? where does the extra .5 come from? bdsd?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll try to address this later. This is time consuming and my wife needs the computer, sorry. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ QUOTE ]
I'll try to address this later. This is time consuming and my wife needs the computer, sorry. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

ok thanks, its stickied so whenever

[bravos1]

Greg.. Awesome post. I /images/graemlins/heart.gif this

1. 6.5/6.5
2. 10/9.5
3. 5.5/6
4. 5.5/6.5
5. 12/11.5
6. 4.5/5 /images/graemlins/crazy.gif
7. 12.5/12.5
8. 4/4
9. 7.5/8
10. 2.5/4.5 /images/graemlins/frown.gif missed a few the first time around LOL
11. 3.5/4 /images/graemlins/crazy.gif
12. 1.5/1.5
13. 3/3 /images/graemlins/crazy.gif
14. 2/2
15. 6.5/6.5
16. 5/5 /images/graemlins/crazy.gif
17. 1.5/3 /images/graemlins/crazy.gif this one gave me your headache!
18. 5/5
19. 5.5/5.5
20. 5/4.5

The ones I marked with /images/graemlins/crazy.gif I would like to have a bit of a discussion against. I'm a bit pressed for time, as this does take some time (in the best way), maybe you could just spell out how you came to yours a bit more and I can come back.

One thing I noticed it that you give at minimum 1/2 an out more on nut flush draws. I typically only give 1.5 even if it's the nuts. The odds of pulling the flush are the same and it is not likely enough to go flush over flush enough to give 1/2 - 1 full out more IMO.

Thanks again.. this is awesome!

1. 6.5
10
6
3.4
5. 13
2
14
3
8
10. 6
7
1.75
2
2
15. 8
6.5
3.5
4
5.5
2

(1) 6.5/6.5
10/10
6/6
3.4/3.4
(5) 13/13
2/6.5
14/14
3/3
8/8
(10) 6/6.75
7/3.75
1.75/3.75
2/1.5
2/2
(15) 8/8
6.5/6.5
3.5/3.5
4/4
5.5/2 if behind
2/2

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]

3.4/3.4


[/ QUOTE ]

3.4 outs? 4 tenths??

yeah, that's about right

actually closer to 6.5 didn't see the doube gut shot

1)6/4.25
2)10/10
3)4.5/6
4)7/7
5)15/14
6)6.5/6.5
7)13.5/15
8)4.5/3.5
9)9/8.5
10)5/5
11)4/5
12)1.5/1.5
13)2/1.5
14)2/2
15)8/8
16)5/5
17)3.5/3.5
18)4/4
19)5.5/1
20)3.5/3.5


Most overcards are subject to reverse domination or str8 domination (where your OC completes a str8).
Short hand discounting*
R = Reverse domination
S = Str8
F = Flush (most are auto)

1) 2[T], 1.5 .75[A]*R\S = [b]4.25 outs
2) 3.5[9], 3.5[A], 3[KQ]*R\F\S = 10 outs
3) 2[9], .5[T]* S, 3.5[Q]*S(AT) = 6 outs
4) 3.5[6], 3.5[2] = 7 outs
5) 9[/images/graemlins/heart.gif], 3[K], 2[AQ]*R\S = 14 outs
6) 2[3], 3[Q], 1.5[FD] = 6.5 outs
7) 9[/images/graemlins/club.gif], {2x.5}1[SD], 5[AK]*R = 15 outs
8) .5[FD], 1.5[SD], 1.5[J]*S = 3.5 outs
9) 4[J], 4[6], .5[8]*S = 8.5 outs
10) 2[T], 2.5[J], .5[SD] = 5 outs
11) 3.5[2], 1.5[FD] = 4 outs
12) 1.5[5] = 1.5 outs
13) 1[SD], .5[FD] = 1.5 outs
14) 2[4] = 2 outs
15) 4[T], 4[5] = 8 outs
16) 2[5], 1.5[A]*R, 1.5[FD] = 5 outs
17) 3.5[4] = 3.5 outs
18) 4[T] = 4 outs
19) Interesting. If already behind, villian has QQ,JJ,44,QJ,Q4. Best case scenario, villian holds 44, or 2pr.
Hero has 0 outs in 2/5 and 2 outs 3/5. I said 1 out
20) 1.5[FD], 2[K] = 3.5 outs

[aargh57]

1) 6.5/6
2) 7/10
3) 6/5.5
4) 7/7
5) 11/10.5
6) 6/5
7) 12.5/12.5
8) 2.5/2.5
9) 8.5/8
10) 4/4
11) 2/4.5
12) 2/2
13) 1/1
14) 2/2
15) 7/7
16) 6.5/6
17) 3/3
18) 4/4
19) 5.5/3 (assuming we're behind)
20) 3.5/3.5

How about 2nd or bottom pair? I usually assign about 4.5 outs to 2nd pair with an overcard but have more trouble estimating when I don't have an overcard. I understand that the texture of the board has something to do with it too. A hand like #1, I assigned 4.5 outs to the 2nd pair + overcard but in #3 I only assigned 2 as any T puts 4 to a strt on board. How about #6? I only gave the bottom pair and Q kicker as 4 outs. Is this too low? Too high? (Note, the numbers don't match my answers as I'm only talking about counting the pair and kicker not other draws)

[bottomset]

lets see how bad bottomset is at this, no thinking, just the first # i come up with ... should be a good display of why Im not good at teh game

ok nevermind, bottomset thought it was a counterfeiting out counting excercise, and also can't keep track of 20numbers in his head at the same time, and scrolling sucks

hand1: you got the best hand

when i get back home Ill do this for real

[Greg J]

In general something I have seen on this post is not counting enough for back door draws to the nut flush. See page 66 and 67 in WOHEP (King Yao's book). It gives a great explanation. You can give 1.5 for second and third nuts and 1.0 outs for lower bd flush draws.

Other common situation is when you have mid or bottom pair. Quick and dirty analyses can give you 5 outs here, but be wary of connectedness, as hitting your other card can make for straight possibilities or straight redraws.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
Other common situation is when you have mid or bottom pair. Quick and dirty analyses can give you 5 outs here, but be wary of connectedness, as hitting your other card can make for straight possibilities or straight redraws.



[/ QUOTE ]

yeah but simplifing this to imply that you are always behind isn't the way to go either.

its often teh best hand, especially if the pot is shorthanded, mainly in steal-raise vs blind battles

so what usually happens is that, you have the best hand a % of the time, and trip/2pr outs

so much determining how many outs you have, is dependent on the action, and players involved that blindly saying you have 7outs with ATh, on a KxTx5h board isn't really gonna help players much, I don't believe

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
that blindly saying you have 7outs with ATh, on a KxTx5h board isn't really gonna help players much, I don't believe

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a mischaracterization of what I am trying to say (though not a willful or disengenous one).

There are certainly many times when you are ahead here -- I won't debate that. The exercise was based on a simple assumption, and I don't think that suspending other considerations and making this one assumption is a big deal. It seems you do, however, which is cool (or am I misunderstanding you). I'm just saying "pretend you are behind to top pair or better," which I think is rather harmless. However, if you are right this entire excercise of mine is totally worthless.

[bottomset]

ok its not worthless, i looked back through the thread, and I think a bunch of ppl really are getting something out of this, its prob worthless for me since its too simplified

you said top pair or better .. well the number of outs you have is dependent on the hand range the villian has, and since the "or better" part will always decrease your number of outs in these situations .. like someone having top and bottom pair .. makes a naked midpair really only have 2outs for trips

so lets say that the hand range TP, top2, bottom2, top/bottom, and 1-3sets .. thats the full range of TP or better, if ignoring preflop action .. given preflop action you can elimnate some of the above, say villian raises UTG(10handed), you can eliminate hands like K2o, 22, T5s etc

so you might get a hand range down to say AK, KQ, KK, TT(again assuming that villian won't bet a hand like AQ, AJ .. but since we are ignoring the times we are ahead, i'll play along)

so with AT look at how it stands up against the hand range, KT5 rainbow, with a bd flush draw

AK: 2T outs, BDflush draw so 3.5 there are 9combos of AKleft

KQ: 2T outs, 3Aouts(but that gives a gutshot redraw), BDflushdraw prob say: 5.5outs or so ... 12combos

KK: up [censored] creek, just running A or T's for a boat/quads, and the BDflush draw which is severly weakened with a set out there, AT is worth 1out or so .. 3combos of KK

TT: still in horrible shape, running A's, and the BD draws again worth about 1out .. only 1combo

so (9 x 3.5) + (12 x 5.5) + (3 x 1) + (1 x 1)/(9 + 12 + 3 + 1) gives you 4.06 outs vs that hand range

still simplified, but a better idea of how much more to this there is

[homebrewer]

Fun thread!

A couple of observations:

1. In counting the outs, it is not necessarily the number that you come up with, but how you come up with them. I can’t really tell if my 7.5 outs are truly equivalent to your 7.5 outs. But, some of the discussion by Greg and others are clarifying this for me.

2. There seems to be few cases overall where the number of outs counted “on the fly” (OTF) is less than the number of outs counted under careful consideration. I’m a little surprised. My initial thoughts about this would be that the OTF outs would be a bit less than under careful consideration (CC) (i.e., CC &gt; OTF) because one would find hidden out more readily. This doesn’t appear to be a common trend. But, IF there is a trend, it seems to be going in the opposite direction (i.e., OTF &gt; CC). What does this mean? 1) Is it that we’re initially overestimating outs on a systematic basis? That is, are we optimistic about the probability of making our hands?

3. In many cases the number of outs OTF = CC outs. Are your outs the same outs OTF and under CC? When you initially count outs are they the same outs OTF as CC? For example, you could be overestimating OTF outs and still reach the same number of outs under CC because you are now discounting your initial estimate but now include those back-door and/or hidden outs. Or, is it simple. You get the same number because you’re just that good and/or consistent?