Stars $15+1: A7 on bubble, with second biggest stack

[Galilee]

What sort of things should I be weighing up here? My first instinct was to push. Then I thought, no - too risky when the big stack could bust me. But a 3BB raise could get me into more trouble than a push, if I'm not re-raised off it anyway. So I pushed ...

HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VIII (200/400)

Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: O'bello (1972 in chips)
Seat 4: Galilee (3905 in chips)
Seat 5: skidzter (1090 in chips)
Seat 6: eatbush (6533 in chips)

O'bello: posts the ante 25
Galilee: posts the ante 25
skidzter: posts the ante 25
eatbush: posts the ante 25
skidzter: posts small blind 200
eatbush: posts big blind 400

Dealt to Galilee [As 7h]
O'bello: folds
Galilee: ...?

I think a raise to 1200 works fine here. You would be down to 2700 if the big stack pushed, which it still a comfortable amount. If I had AT+ I would be pushing here though.

[bawcerelli]

fold

[ QUOTE ]
I think a raise to 1200 works fine here. You would be down to 2700 if the big stack pushed, which it still a comfortable amount. If I had AT+ I would be pushing here though.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the big stack is aggressive enough, he's pushing over your raise here a lot. And, unless he's really tight, pushing into him with A7o is a big mistake, and a mistake that gets worse, the looser he is.

If he'll call top 40%, which is way loose, you need QQ+, but even if he only calls 66+, ATs+, AJo+ (just over 7% of the time), you still need at least 77+, AJo+, ATs+ yourself, for the push to be enough +$EV to be worth it.

Given the shorty and my healthy stack, I'm not pushing less than a decent size PP here most of the time, say 99/TT. Attacking just the SB, on the other hand, would be much more profitable.