AKo vs. a loose defender [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Nick C

11-06-2005, 04:15 AM

BB is 34/8/1.4 after 172 hands. He is also 62/10 in the BB for that stretch and has a 0.0 Folded BB to Steal percentage.

In my notes, I had written that he was a "K7s LAG" (based on a hand where he open-limped with that hand in MP).

A few orbits before the posted hand, I watched him open-raise from the CO with 66. He got called by the BB, and then he 3-bet a flop checkraise on a KT4 rainbow, called a cap, bet when checked to when the turn brought another king and called down after he got checkraised again.

Villain had been running hot since then, but that 66 hand made my notes too.

Anyway, here goes:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
3 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks . . .

Now what? Check with outs, planning to call a river bet? Bet-fold? Bet-call?

KDawgCometh

11-06-2005, 04:23 AM

I would definetly consider checking the turn and calling a river bet by him. Getting CRed on this turn would suck, and a check may just induce a bluff on his part on the river that he may not call if you just bet out the turn

olavfo

11-06-2005, 04:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Now what? Check with outs, planning to call a river bet? Bet-fold? Bet-call?

[/ QUOTE ]
Scary board, but we have no reason to believe he has a J yet. He will often have a piece of this board, however, so we should bet. A check-raise would suck, but allowing him to draw out for free would suck more.

Given your reads on him I would grumble but probably call down if he check-raises. Anyhow, I would definitely bet the turn.

BoxLiquid

11-06-2005, 04:35 AM

doesn't fold at all in BB to steal? He probably thinks his queens are good. I think he's gotta be the most craziest donkey to call 4 bet with 66 when the flop is KTX. I would make value bet turn and river. That's just me. But if you want to be real safe. I would check the turn and let him bluff the river. He can't have a flush . He plays too irrational.

Theres no way he's slowplaying a set. He would reraise in the BB. 99, KK, QQ. flush draw? I doubt it he defends his blinds 100% of the time. I would have to be more observant on his betting patterns to find out what the optimal play is here.

Alex/Mugaaz

11-06-2005, 04:39 AM

How often does he have to not have the jack if he will call down with any piece to make betting profitable as compared to how often does he need to bluff bet the river with a hand we beat? This problem is somewhat beyond me. Can anyone answer this?

Nick C

11-06-2005, 06:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How often does he have to not have the jack if he will call down with any piece to make betting profitable as compared to how often does he need to bluff bet the river with a hand we beat? This problem is somewhat beyond me. Can anyone answer this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know the answer either, but during the hand I was looking at the board (on the turn) and thinking that, against a BB who was merely semi-loose, the chances would be really, really good that I was the one who needed a free card, versus two pair if not a straight.

Against my actual opponent, hands like Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif and T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif seemed possible, and I didn't know what to do.

Carmine

11-06-2005, 09:46 AM

It seems to me that against this player bet/call and calling the river should be profitable. We are talking about 1BB more going into this pot(I assume Hero is not checking through this river). I think we make much more than that all the times he CD with mid pair or tries to bluff.

I realize your read may not be 100% if we are just going by that one hand, but once I see this from a player several times and have him pegged as a bluffaholic(or just to stupid to know when he is likely beat)I welcome the turn raise.

toss

11-06-2005, 10:57 AM

Edit: Villain seems to have maniacal traits. I'd check behind and call just about any river. Against someone who is going to make a lot of moves I'll try to showdown with any decent hand for as cheaply as possible.

Nick C

11-06-2005, 10:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet/fold the turn and check behind on the river. Checking lets villain bluff us off a hand on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have called, though.

toss

11-06-2005, 11:05 AM

Teehee I changed my post. Seems villain is a looney.

Nick C

11-06-2005, 11:14 AM

Sorry. I need to make a frustration post that I'm sure I'll regret tomorrow. So I'll bury it in my own thread:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, CO calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, CO folds, SB raises, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (22.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

All right. I'm going to sleep now.

flopmonster

11-06-2005, 11:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would definetly consider checking the turn and calling a river bet by him. Getting CRed on this turn would suck, and a check may just induce a bluff on his part on the river that he may not call if you just bet out the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

thejameser

11-06-2005, 11:26 AM

come on man, this guy could have a much lower pp, or any lower piece of the board and he may call down with it. if he has even a single heart you don't want to give it a free shot to suck out on you. i bet this every time. if i get raised i call down. he will let you know on the turn where you are at, and i feel that MOST of the time in a blind defense situation he could have any two cards and given that their are only 4 jacks(any one of which comes gives you a straight)in the whole deck and a paired board would counterfeit a lower two pair, you have outs if behind. the key being that it is a blind defense scenario and to "keep you honest" he will call you down with many much lesser holdings IMO. bet.

Nick C

11-06-2005, 08:15 PM

Some of you have recommended betting and then calling down if checkraised, which is what I did. So even though the hand felt ugly after the fact, maybe my line was all right.

I felt lost, really. How often will I have the best hand on that turn? I wasn't sure. If I do have the best hand, which I think is entirely possible, I'd prefer not to give a free card to a five-outer, unless Villain would fold queen-rag to a bet on a board like this one but would bluff it (or pay off a bet with it) on the river if I showed weakness with a turn check. Is that what he'd do? I wasn't sure.

When my LAGgy opponent checkraises on that scary board, how often will he be doing so with king-rag or worse? How often will he be checkraising with just a two-pair hand like T9 or QT or a slowplayed K9 that I have decent outs against? I wasn't sure about that either.

Anyway, here's the whole hand:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
3 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

River: (7.20 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.20 BB

Villain had the jack, after having made a preflop call that was even looser than I expected. (He had J5o.)

Thanks for the responses.

Cumulonimbus

11-06-2005, 10:16 PM

How bad is your downswing Nick? I need somebody to side with, cuz I just passed -210 BBs for 4k hands. It hurts.

Nick C

11-06-2005, 10:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How bad is your downswing Nick? I need somebody to side with, cuz I just passed -210 BBs for 4k hands. It hurts.

[/ QUOTE ]

My downswing is -70 BBs, all from this weekend. I know that that's not so much, really. But I was feeling sorry for myself right after my set of 4's lost in my next-to-last hand last night.

During that hand, for a change, I felt like I pretty much knew what my opponents had, and I felt that I deserved for the river card to be something other than an ace, seven, or whatever card would pair my opponent's kicker.

So there'll be a little content, I'll add this: I don't think the SB played the turn very well. (Or maybe his read on me wasn't so good.) There isn't much chance that I have a worse ace and am capping the flop with it, and whatever chance there was goes down once the second ace falls on the turn. Plus, if I happen to be on a flush draw, there's a good chance I'm taking the free card. So it seems like a bad idea to me, for SB to go for a turn checkraise. I was saying "C'mon, checkraise me" to my computer after I bet.

bobhalford

11-06-2005, 10:44 PM

In this hand I would check the turn and call a river bet. Villain could easily have a J and you don't want to pay much to find out. Small pot and you are glad to be able to check behind the turn and just snap off a bluff or a bet with a worse hand which will happen enough of the time. If you bet the turn and get raised, then calling is probably a mistake. You also open yourself to the possibility of being bluff check raised, since this is about as good of a board and pot size to do that with.

11-06-2005, 10:46 PM

I think it really depends on how big of a calling station. If he's a big call station, I say go ahead and bet the turn, getting check/raised be too bad as he's a bit of a maniac. If he's folding a lot of hands on the turn here, I say go ahead and check behind and pick off a river bluff.

BoxLiquid

11-06-2005, 11:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry. I need to make a frustration post that I'm sure I'll regret tomorrow. So I'll bury it in my own thread:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, CO calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, CO folds, SB raises, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (22.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

All right. I'm going to sleep now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would raise river.

If he has a full house he would cap the turn. He slowed down.

To put him exactly on AQ. I wouldn't be scared of it enough to just call.

Nick C

11-06-2005, 11:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry. I need to make a frustration post that I'm sure I'll regret tomorrow. So I'll bury it in my own thread:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, CO calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, CO folds, SB raises, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (22.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

All right. I'm going to sleep now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would raise river.

If he has a full house he would cap the turn. He slowed down.

To put him exactly on AQ. I wouldn't be scared of it enough to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I don't know whether I should have or not, but AQ is exactly what I put him on when he led the river, and I practically felt like I was making a crying call. In any event, I didn't want to open myself up to a 3-bet.

I know I didn't provide reads, but Villain is 14/10/2.9. after 125 hands.

The other player was much looser but didn't seem like a hopeless chaser in the face of heavy action. I think he missed a flush draw. Or maybe he had 65.

BoxLiquid

11-06-2005, 11:43 PM

There may be times where he actually does have AQ. But if you were in this position a hundred times I think more than 50% of the time he will have bet out a losing hand by how the board and betting looks.

Which means raising is profitable in the long run. It sounds right in theory (I think) but I don't know if it's the best advice.

I would look for more answers on that hand. NH

If he is a strong player he would know that YOU aren't scared of a backdoor flush and would know you would bet. Which means he can check-raise with AQ.

Nick C

11-07-2005, 12:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he is a strong player he would know that YOU aren't scared of a backdoor flush and would know you would bet. Which means he can check-raise with AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd imagine he was going for a bet/3-bet, more than he feared I'd check the river behind. I think he should have basically figured out that I had a full house, by now.

I think a checkraise might be a good play for SB. There's a good chance UTG missed and isn't paying off any more bets (and if he's hung in this long with an ace he probably won't fold it now anyway). And, in fact, I would have bet if checked to and called a checkraise.

By the way (given Villain's actual river lead), I need to be good over half of the time to raise, unless I can confidently fold to a 3-bet. (And that's not a fold I'm capable of making.) The reason for this is that Villain will always 3-bet AQ but will often just call when he only has trips.

badbill7

11-07-2005, 01:59 AM

actually like your cryin hand better only because with read on player you have to put him on aq and nothin else.nice read. river cards are evil

mtdoak

11-07-2005, 02:19 AM

This is a standard bet/call, and call the river situation. Its a scary board, but betting for value when your heads up here vs a loose player is a must. Could he have hit the straight? Yes. Could he bluff that he hit the straight? Yes. Will he call you down with worse. Absolutly.