Beware the river bet/fold! [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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dark_horse

11-05-2005, 10:38 PM

After 100 hands, villian is 65.7/11.4/1.08 (2.0 on river). For all the times I had the discipline to lay down my hand on the river for one bet in situations like this, a showdown like the one here could have caused me to never use the c/c, c/c, b/f line again. Yes, the hand is 1/2 and belongs in micro, but the players were not your normal 1/2 players, as my table was almost full of bonus clearing x-skins TAGs who play 3/6 and up. (this hand was played on eurobet)

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, 5 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (8 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero thinks for about 15 seconds and calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qs As (one pair, queens).
UTG+1 has 7d Td (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 12 BB.

sy_or_bust

11-05-2005, 10:41 PM

Why would you even THINK about a bet/fold here? I'd actually checkraise, getting extra value from worse pairs and catching a busted flush draw for at leaset a bet. Not that many hands check behind here, IMO.

Beware giving dumb players too much credit.

Carmine

11-05-2005, 10:47 PM

Why would you ever fold in that spot. What hand would you put villian on that he did not re-raise PF, wants to protect on the flop and beats you on the river.

dark_horse

11-05-2005, 10:47 PM

When is a bet/fold appropriate? I think the line works better in a live game where river raises are a bit more credible. But of course, it depends on the player/read.

dark_horse

11-05-2005, 10:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you ever fold in that spot. What hand would you put villian on that he did not re-raise PF, wants to protect on the flop and beats you on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think villian understands protection. Look at his stats. But given his extreme looseness, he could have hit any myriad of hands that had me beat before I hit my pair.

Alex/Mugaaz

11-05-2005, 10:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you ever fold in that spot. What hand would you put villian on that he did not re-raise PF, wants to protect on the flop and beats you on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I disagree, but obviously QT.

Carmine

11-06-2005, 01:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you ever fold in that spot. What hand would you put villian on that he did not re-raise PF, wants to protect on the flop and beats you on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I disagree, but obviously QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but are we folding because he could have these limited number of hands.

I have no problem folding to a river raise if a situation warrants so. I don't think this situation does.

Nick C

11-06-2005, 02:02 AM

QT and JT do both seem quite possible, and a hand like Q /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif can't be ruled out. Really, Villain is very loose and probably plays erratically and could have a lot of things that beat us. If I called the river raise (and I probably would, while telling myself that I shouldn't), I would be expecting to lose.

Anyway, though, there are some players who love to bluff-raise the river. And there are players who pretty much never bluff-raise the river (except by accident when they overvalue their hand).

I do wonder sometimes if we're getting bluffed out more often than we realize when we take river bet-fold lines. But it seems like my 5/10 tables this weekend have featured a lot of bluff-raising and bluff 3-betting (mostly on the flop and turn, though), and that may be influencing my current thinking.