A9s hand, raise for free showdown?

[MrEngenic]

Hand from Weighing the odds in holdem poker by King Yao. I'm not sure I like this hand. SB will not fold a better hand. He will 3bet with a set or AK and we have to call. He will fold a bluff.
We gain if he has a worse hand but has the implied odds to draw out, like if he has a K and folds.
I like calling and saving my raise for when I hit on the river.

Hero is CO with A /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Folded to hero, Hero raises, button folds, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: (6 SB) A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB folds, Hero calls

Turn: (5 BB) 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets, Hero raises for a free showdown

You are ahead a fair % of the time here, that is important to factor.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand from Weighing the odds in holdem poker by King Yao. I'm not sure I like this hand. SB will not fold a better hand. He will 3bet with a set or AK and we have to call. He will fold a bluff.
We gain if he has a worse hand but has the implied odds to draw out, like if he has a K and folds.
I like calling and saving my raise for when I hit on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis better than your play /images/graemlins/wink.gif
There's really no reason for him to be scared of a river'd /images/graemlins/club.gif, so I don't think he's checking very often and I don't think you're folding a better hand on the turn.

How's that book BTW? I'm thinking of getting it. I dunno, I got Feeny's book after reading great things about it here, but I don't feel like I've gotten much out of it.

[sy_or_bust]

Sets and AK aren't that common, nor are they 100% 3-bets from all players. There is a fair chance that you are ahead, and certainly you aren't planning to call and fold the river UI. If so, it's simple to raise, checking behind unimproved and earning an extra bet when you make the flush. The extra bets you make hitting the flush vastly outweigh the times you are 3-bet by an SB that called your preflop raise (remember, you can still make your flush and gain 2 extra bets on the river when you are 3-bet).

[@bsolute_luck]

i don't get why we're assuming we have the worst hand?

[MrEngenic]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> If so, it's simple to raise, checking behind unimproved and earning an extra bet when you make the flush. The extra bets you make hitting the flush vastly outweigh the times you are 3-bet by an SB that called your preflop raise </pre><hr />

I don't think we gain an extra bet by raising the turn and betting the river if we hit. If opponent has a hand strong enough to call a turn raise with it's probably strong enough for him to valuebet the river so we can raise there.

[MrEngenic]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't get why we're assuming we have the worst hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who assumes that?

[BoxLiquid]

I would call down to the river. You aren't going to fold no matter what. So raising would achieve nothing but getting yourself 3 betted or him folding. And if the flush did come on the river you get to raise him since you have position. Comments please.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't get why we're assuming we have the worst hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who assumes that?

[/ QUOTE ]

the question is raise for free showdown. why not "raise for value?"

you said "he's not folding no matter what"- why not be asking, would a worse hand pay me off?

based on people's comments so far, we have already given credit for a better hand when i don't think there is enough proof for that yet.

[Piiop]

Yeah, I just checked this hand in the book and it's not a very good example of when to raise for a free showdown. The SB is described as "a loose, aggressive player". The SB has us beat here practically never. Any better A's or 88 3-bet preflop (88 not always), so the only hands that beat us are A8 and 88. The SB probably has a weaker A, a K, or bluff.

If I raise on the turn, it's with the intention of betting the river. However, this let's a bluff off easy and a K might fold here as well. (He does mention against a habitual bluffer you shouldn't raise.)

If I call the turn, it's with the intention of raising the river. A lot of players will call the river for 1 more bet for a lot of reasons so your raise has more value here. I would also 3bet the flop a lot in this spot.

[sy_or_bust]

[ QUOTE ]
If I raise on the turn, it's with the intention of betting the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? All of the terrible hands A9s crushes will fold, and better hands will call. And, rarely, you'll be bluff-raised off the pot.

The turn raise is good when you're ahead because the awful hands may call, hoping to improve, knowing they will not pay off on the river UI. This is pretty close to an extra BB.

Expecting the same to be true on the river is often wishful thinking IMO.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
Why? All of the terrible hands A9s crushes will fold, and better hands will call

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that all worse hands will fold on the river?