Small stud tourney--fold (QQ)J?

[Andy B]

Small buy-in stud event. It's the fourth round with betting at $100/200 with a $25 ante and a $50 force. Yeah, it's stupid, but what the hey, it's only $35, and I needed to get out of the house. I have about $700, which is below-average, but most folks are only one or two hands away from elimination. Anyways, the bring-in is across the table from me. An octogenarian on a respirator whom I have never seen before completes to $100 with the <font color="red">8</font color>/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif in the door. He has me covered. Someone calls with something or other. I am next with (Q/forums/images/icons/spade.gif Q/forums/images/icons/club.gif) <font color="red">J</font color>/forums/images/icons/heart.gif, all of my cards live. I didn't do it, but I was strongly tempted to muck, as a call would commit me to a hand that was probably behind, and if I lost it, I was out. What do y'all think?

[Al_Capone_Junior]

That's a tuffie. Octo-boy probably has pocket AA or KK. But those pocket queens are too perty to just muck in the trash like leftover corn husks from a tamale cookoff.

If you're going to play, the good thing is that you can see when he improves to two pair quite easily, and if he's likely to have spiked trips, so you'll know where you are. He'll probably put you on jacks, so if you spike a queen, you'll probably get great action from his two pair.

Still, you are playing a hand that you're probably behind on. Hope you won /forums/images/icons/grin.gif .

al

[sam h]

Andy,

I'm not a very experienced stud player and I'd like to hear what you think as I've always found your posts helpful on the stud forum.

But it seems to me that maybe the thing to do here is raise, with the hope that the 8 will reraise and knock out the other player. With 200 in antes, 100 put in by the other guy, and a bringin of 50 as dead money, you then are getting pretty good odds to chase the presumed overpair with live cards. Of course it commits you to the hand, which sucks if your opponent pairs his doorcard on fourth. But you're probably committed anyway, since I'm not sure you can fold on fifth without improvement if the other guy seems to be catching blanks as well.

I'd like to hear your thoughts on this. I've been reading the S+M stud book and having a particularly hard time wrapping my mind around this concept of reraising on third when you're behind to get it heads up. Maybe this is not applicable here because the third opponent making two pair is probably not going to beat your two pair if you make it. But he could be on a draw, and there is a lot of dead money compared to your stack because of that structure.

[bugstud]

given the stupid nature of the tourney, now seems like a good time to make a play. I take it you hadn't seen the guy play too much. In my limited canterbury experience I found the old players to be just as bad as everyone else /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[banditbdl]

If you're going to call(committing your stack) with the expectation that you're behind the original raiser you might as well raise in hopes of getting it heads up. That said, I've found that when playing against these types of players at Canterbury they almost always have the big pair you suspect(especially if raising with overcards behind them), so I would probably fold. If the Octagenarian's name was Don he's guaranteed to have KK or AA and this is an easier fold.

[Cooling Heels]

Nice tourney structure there, $25 to the prize pot, $10 to
the house. Hard to find a higher rake.

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/shocked.gif you're a damn tuff player...gl /forums/images/icons/cool.gif /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

[Andy B]

There was a caller between me and the original raiser. A re-raise is very unlikely to get it heads-up.

It wasn't Don. I've certainly seen Don before, and although I haven't seen him in a little while, I don't think he's on a respirator. He's certainly a candidate, though.

[Andy B]

What's more is they take $500 out for the two "bounties."

[Andy B]

A re-raise on my part would probably not knock out the third player, in my opinion. First of all, the old guy may not re-raise, even with pocket Aces. Secondly, I have found that most players, having called a full bet, will call two more bets, no matter how ill-advised. Local Omaha players refer to this as the ten-percent-in rule.

My feeling is that I probably should have folded. When someone as old and frail as this guy raises, it almost always means a big pair. Given my hand, it's unlikely that it's Jacks or Queens, and he might not even raise with Jacks anyway. It's very, very likely that he has a bigger pair in the hole. Even if I felt like I had odds to chase, I had to beat the other player in the pot as well, not mention the players yet to act.

I called and it was a three-handed pot. I was high on fourth street and bet out. The old guy only called, so I somehow convinced myself that I might have the best hand. I bet fifth as well, but after that, the third player developed a scary board and it got checked down after that. The old guy won with Kings-up.

As a Monday morning quarterback, my opinion is that even if I did have some kind of overlay on this hand, I could have afforded to sit back and wait for a better opportunity. On the other hand, this was a reasonable shot to triple up, and if I busted out, I was probably better off in a side game anyway.

The raising-when-you're-behind-to-get-it-heads-up thing is less applicable here. 7CS4AP is geared towards cash games where you presumably have some money in front of you and more in your pocket. If I lose this hand I'm out, and I'm going to lose more than half the time. If my stack were much bigger or much smaller, I might have a play, but I think I should muck in this spot.

[banditbdl]

The bounties actually come out of the $10 entry fee (I cashed once and did the math, they couldn't have come out of the $25), so if 100 people enter 30 of your 35 dollars is up for grabs, still not a great structure, but options are limited if you want to play tournament stud.