5/10 6-max: Folding the nuts on the turn [Archive]

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AceHiStation

11-05-2005, 07:55 PM

Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

UTG ($1139.25)
MP ($3360.35)
CO ($1442)
Hero ($2538)
SB ($990)
BB ($1128.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $5.
3 folds, Hero raises to $36, 1 fold, BB calls $26.

Flop: ($77) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($77) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets $900, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $977

ahnuld

11-05-2005, 07:57 PM

either or. Call isnt bad, but neither is a fold. Lowers your variance.

yvesaint

11-05-2005, 08:01 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (2 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($2267.80)
Button ($1128.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Button posts a blind of $6.
Hero raises to $24, Button (poster) calls $18.

Flop: ($48) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($48) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $30, Button raises to $72, Hero raises to $2243.8, Button calls $1032.55 (All-In).

River: ($3396.35) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $3396.35

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kd 8d (straight, ace high).
Button has 3h Kc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $2267.80. Button wins $1128.55. 

similar hand, would you call this if you were Button

RikaKazak

11-05-2005, 08:07 PM

standard fold, you see made str8 and flush draw HUGE % of the time.

Kirkrrr

11-05-2005, 08:11 PM

He was going for a freeroll, it didn't happen. I think it was a good fold.

Kirk

11-05-2005, 08:19 PM

People do a lot of strange things in low stakes games. At first I liked the fold. I think it's unlikely villian had A/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif, since his $900 bet has hardly any positive expectation. With the current nuts and a strong draw to the nut flush, he doesn't stand to gain anything by betting this much. My guess would be he had a king (possibly KQ) and was afraid of the flush draw. But still, I think the pot's way too small to call when it seems like the best you can do is tie. I guess it's possible he might have had a hand like TT and is desperate, but I'm going to give him credit for being slightly more rational than that. Personally, I might call just out of curiosity. Since you didn't show any aggression post-flop, maybe your opponent is just that bad.

yvesaint

11-05-2005, 08:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess he has at least 4 outs to a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

he cant have a K and have outs to a boat at the same time

11-05-2005, 08:26 PM

Yeah, I was mixing up the two posts as I was scrolling down. Oops.

HoldEmKillah

11-05-2005, 08:34 PM

NLD

muzungu

11-06-2005, 07:43 AM

Simple math problem.

Let's assume he always has a K.

You call and chop: you win $38.50.

You call, he hits, you pay off river: you lose $1090ish.

flush hits 9/44, so if he has the freeroll you lose (9/44)(1090) = lessee, about $220?

Soooo, if he has AK /images/graemlins/club.gif or KT /images/graemlins/club.gif about 1 time in 6, you lose. I think he will be freerolling a good deal more often than that. Plus, all other things being equal, low variance is your friend. So I fold.

-muz

11-06-2005, 08:23 AM

Yes, it's a smart move from villain. This is an action dead hand if hero doesn't have a king (unless he's flush drawing, but still you don't want to give him that bad of odds). So.. this move only has to be called about 1/7th (gestimate) to be profitable.

Pudge714

11-06-2005, 10:31 AM

How much needs to be in the pot for this call to be +ev?

11-06-2005, 11:27 AM

It's quite a unique dead situation. Because of this you (and him) have basically no reads. So this relates to the small pot and the small expected river-action, and therefore the expected positive value because of the huge overbet that subsequently only has to be called a smallish amount of times.

If the pot were larger, the whole situation becomes different with more reads and a larger pot to fight for.

If the pot did happen to be larger in a similar situation, the non-2-flush-king would want to call more often because of the pot size, so that only works in your advantage.

Tregan

11-06-2005, 01:05 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

BB ($619.10)
UTG ($919.60)
MP ($856.40)
Hero ($1252.40)
SB ($183.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls $6, MP raises to $26, Hero calls $26, 2 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($67) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $30, MP calls $30.

Turn: ($127) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $100, MP raises to $200, Hero raises to $1096.40 (all-in), MP calls $600.40 (all-in).

River: ($127) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
(no action on this round)

Final Pot: $1725.80

yvesaint

11-06-2005, 01:11 PM

ya but imagine if you both were freerollin and he hit instead /images/graemlins/tongue.gif