Line...

[Roy6]

Villain has 72% VPIP. He had a hell of a run so far. Postflop he seems rather competent, respecting big street raises.
On the flop I put him on a pocket pair/3x/Ax/flush draw.
On the turn a continuation bet was natural for him.
If he has a flush draw, he can make a bad lay down figuring I have a big pair and flush won't be good.
If he has Ax, he'll just call and I gain 2 bets from him instead of one (I'd check behind the river UI if I'd just call).
The drawback of this line that I will fold to a 3-bet. The question is what do we think, is he 3-betting with A3, 3x, 22-66, 77-99 on the turn?

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.70 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>,

[sammy_g]

If you get 3 bet, I think you have to call to try to catch an A or J.

Edit: Or a 9 /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Roy6]

If you plan to see river if he 3-bets, calling would be better. You spend 1 or 2 BBs, with raising-getting 3-bet it's 3 BB you'll have to pay him. Of course it depends on the % villain will 3-bet.

[Lmn55d]

i'm ok with your decision to continue beyond the flop, but I hate the turn raise. First of all some of your assumptions are not realistic. If he has a flush draw he's usually gonna have at least one overcard and he will draw to that boat. Even if he didn't have any overcards, I highly doubt a 70 vpip player folds a flush draw here. A lot of these guys will put you on a big ace and think their pair and flush draw outs are good.

Second, you can't fold to a 3bet. If he does 3bet are you folding the river? If so you will be folding the best hand some percentage of the time.

Third, this type of player will bluff the river a very high percentage of the time, so you are not getting any extra by raising him on the turn.

[Roy6]

so you'd advocate calling down all the way, raising A/J?

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
If you plan to see river if he 3-bets, calling would be better.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. And since you have to call if he 3 bets (pot odds), simply calling the turn is the play.

[Lmn55d]

if you think he could be raising a worse hand on the flop, yes. If you think his range is only pairs or flush draws, fold if a diamond comes. I assume you think his range includes smaller aces and outright bluffs...if so yea I'd call down all the way.

On a side note, I think overuse of this free showdown raise stuff is one of the biggest mistakes TAGs make at 5/10 and 10/20. Its a very powerful play against the right opponents, but these opponents aren't too common in these games. For the most part, the players in these games are incapable of folding pairs, love to bluff the river, and aren't afraid to 3bet as a bluff or semibluff. The free showdown raise is usually not optimal against this type. Semibluff raising and checkraising against aggro players against whom you have 0 folding equity is another big mistake otherwise good players make imo.