Bellagio 10/20 hand

[neon]

Hey guys,

Been a while. Sorry for the prolonged absence, been in Vegas for a couple weeks, and have been partying waaaaaaaay more than playing, so not much to contribute cardwise, from my perspective. But did get over to the Bellagio to play some 10/20 NL (which is an excellent game, FWIW), and here's the most memorable/interesting hand I've played thus far.

Villain is a good player, and although he and I were somewhat at war in the few hands preceding this one, I've been playing a pretty straightforward TAG game, as that's all that seems to be necessary to beat this game to pieces. Prolly a half dozen hands ago, however, after having raised w/ JJ preflop and taking down the blinds the hand before, I reraised villain's $100 open to $400 from the SB w/ AsQs, and then bet 2/3 pot or so on a KQxr flop. Villain folded and I showed, and he said that he "had me preflop" (no [censored]).

A few hands later, I open for $80 from EP w/ QQ, suits unimportant. Villain makes it $400 to go. I call. I have $9k and villain covers.

Flop is Qxx, rainbow. I check/call $600.

Turn is an offsuit 10. I lead for $500. Villain stares me down for about three seconds, and then makes it $2500 straight.

Hero? Plan for the river?

Thanks in advance.

I'll be back later today to answer questions/respond to comments.

-neon.

[Post-Oak]

Why is this guy looking to play such a big pot? If he does have AA or KK, I think he should have just called your fake blocking bet. The pot is already huge for 10/20.

Now that he has raised to 2500 straight, when you call the pot will be $7K. And you guys will have $6.5K left.

I don't know if he would raise here with AA or KK. And if he did, I think he is done with the hand if you even call and then lead river (unless you keep it relatively small). He may think you are trying to put a play on him again, but if you so much as call, he knows you have it.

Maybe he has AK and is trying to muscle you? I just don't understand his raise.

I would usually push, hoping he reraised you with something other than AK/KK/AA and has a legitimate hand. Other times I would call and then lead river for $3K.

I don't play this deepstacked, but I think these are both viable lines.



Edit to say "AK/AA/KK" which is what I meant, not AK/KK/QQ.

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
hoping he reraised you with something other than AK/KK/AA and has a legitimate hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol?

oh about the hand. just um push, yeah that's about right. seems like your previous warring with each other will pay off...

but i would lead for way more than 500 on the turn if i had check called the flop, but i would not check call the flop, this made it sort of awkward for the money to get in. if you lead the flop, you will stack him every time he has AA/KK.

[Post-Oak]

Duck,

I really do mean that if he has AA or KK he is overplaying his hand (even more so with KK). Hero has shown strength. He raised in EP, he called a reraise, he check called the flop.

I don't mind Villain's raise on the turn as much if he has AK (nothing but a gutshot), but with KK it is pretty horrible. AA I wouldn't be looking to inflate the pot any further on this drawless board either.

So I mean that I hope villain has a set, which is the type of strength he is now representing. I of course don't disallow AA, I just think it is a foolish raise on his part in that spot if that is his holding. Because now he could be facing a pot sized all-in reraise, or a big value bet on the river. How could he fold for a $3K value bet on the river if he has AA? He can't.

He has to know that hero is not drawing, given the action and the board.

The pot is already 100 big blinds after the flop action. Why is villain looking to jam this pot??? He is trying to stack off against AQ or KK? Really he would just be opening himself up to getting stacked by a hand that beats a pair.

I think an overpair would generally call the $500 here. So this guy probably really blew it, but hopefully this is one of those rare set over set situations (cause you are assured of getting his whole stack). Maybe he turned it.

Anyway, most of the times I guess this will either be a badly played AA, or a bluff.

I just don't grasp why people don't understand (not talking about you) that a CALL can show strength. What does he put hero on given the preflop action and his check call on the flop? I mean come on, I would check that turn if checked to and especially just call if bet into. If hero has AQ - good - win a nice pot against his overplayed hand. No need for villain to reopen the betting and raise here with a mere pair.

[mgsimpleton]

i didn't say he played it well, i was just saying that AA and KK are very good. especially in live poker.

furthermore, check calling does not show strength. that is weak tight thinking. strength can be one interpretation but it is usually weakness.

[flawless_victory]

bet more on the turn, then you push.

hope he has AA.`

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
i didn't say he played it well, i was just saying that AA and KK are very good. especially in live poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you raise in this spot with AA against a TAG, and get called (we won't even say reraised), you feel good about your hand???

Maybe I just need to play more live.

[ QUOTE ]

furthermore, check calling does not show strength. that is weak tight thinking. strength can be one interpretation but it is usually weakness.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the preflop action, a check-call here sends off alarm bells in my head. I don't read it as weakness, not at all.

At least I am still king of the weak tighties /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[coltrane]

[ QUOTE ]
if you lead the flop, you will stack him every time he has AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

they have 450 BB's and villain is a good player....this isn't party poker.....




to OP,

he's obviously testing you on the turn, problem is that the pot is now big (you'll only have a pot-sized bet left) and you're out of position....an all-in protects the pot, but there's no way he's calling without three tens......I guess my question is, how likely is that? and also how likely is it that he's making this move with a drawing hand?.....if you think you're not sure, and that he could have three tens or some draw, the safe play is to just protect the pot and just stick it in on the turn....however, if you've got him squarely on AA/KK, I like maybe taking a chance and doing something goofy like mini-ish raising him back $2500 and then betting the rest on the river.....he might not go for that either, but I think it's got some shot....

[cero_z]

Hi neon,

Good to see you posting again. This post has tons to think about, but I think the play of this hand mostly hinges on how good this "good player" is.

What I would first try to determine here is whether this guy can have 8 outs against me, meaning, can he have made it 400 to go with KJ or J9. Only a terrible or excellent player will make that re-raise pre-flop. I suspect this player would not be capable of that play, or you would've noted his unpredictability. If he could have an OESD, I'd protect the pot with a re-raise, because there's some chance he can have other hands that he'll call with, and a number of river cards might put me in a pretty tough spot. The pot's big, so you don't want to mess around too much if he is drawing very live.

Then, I'd make sure that he's not bad enough to be raising with AA or KK here. Most good players would not make this play, since that bet is very unlikely to be called by a good player unless AA/KK is beaten, and it makes it harder for him to get away from it as the pot grows. Note: You could make an argument that if he has AA/KK, he could make that raise with the plan of not putting another penny in the pot, hoping you'll call and try a river check-raise if you have a monster. He might reason that 2500 is the cheapest he can get to the river. But, this play is very rare from a good player, I think.

So, from your average "good player," the turn raise represents either a set or a bluff, which is drawing dead (something like JJ/99) or has 4 outs (AK, or mayyyyybe AJs). If this is the case, I'd call the turn and check the river (with the intention of getting it all-in), unless an Ace or King fell, in which case I'd make a value bet of 3000 (if you think he could have AJ, you'll have to re-consider a K bet, but in any case this hand is really unlikely, I think).

So, essentially, I'm making the Bruiser-esque play of calling him and then checking, because I think it's so likely that he'll continue to bet the river if he was semi-bluffing with few outs. And of course, he'll bet a blank with TTT, and he'll pay off for sure with it if you bet 3000 on an A/K. I think a Jack is the only card you don't want to see on the river, or possibly a King.

After thinking about it some more, you can make a case for taking the same line if you think he might have 8 outs, except of course that you'd be cautious with many more river cards. The decision hinges on how likely he is to continue to bluff a missed draw. In my experience, people are more likely to follow up when they were bluffing with very few outs, rather than with many, so if an OESD is in the mix, I'd just re-raise the turn.

mmmmmm.....uh, i disagree here. i think that a check-raise on the flop is the best way to play this hand...i think if you lead, the villain might just call, and might wonder why you're leading at him.....IMO, if the villain does have what he's representing, i'd checkraise this flop....he bet 600, i'd raise to around 1400, and watch him push with AA or KK....


as the hand was played, i like a real long and drawn out push here on the turn....

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi neon,

Good to see you posting again. This post has tons to think about, but I think the play of this hand mostly hinges on how good this "good player" is.

What I would first try to determine here is whether this guy can have 8 outs against me, meaning, can he have made it 400 to go with KJ or J9. Only a terrible or excellent player will make that re-raise pre-flop. I suspect this player would not be capable of that play, or you would've noted his unpredictability. If he could have an OESD, I'd protect the pot with a re-raise, because there's some chance he can have other hands that he'll call with, and a number of river cards might put me in a pretty tough spot. The pot's big, so you don't want to mess around too much if he is drawing very live.

Then, I'd make sure that he's not bad enough to be raising with AA or KK here. Most good players would not make this play, since that bet is very unlikely to be called by a good player unless AA/KK is beaten, and it makes it harder for him to get away from it as the pot grows. Note: You could make an argument that if he has AA/KK, he could make that raise with the plan of not putting another penny in the pot, hoping you'll call and try a river check-raise if you have a monster. He might reason that 2500 is the cheapest he can get to the river. But, this play is very rare from a good player, I think.

So, from your average "good player," the turn raise represents either a set or a bluff, which is drawing dead (something like JJ/99) or has 4 outs (AK, or mayyyyybe AJs). If this is the case, I'd call the turn and check the river (with the intention of getting it all-in), unless an Ace or King fell, in which case I'd make a value bet of 3000 (if you think he could have AJ, you'll have to re-consider a K bet, but in any case this hand is really unlikely, I think).

So, essentially, I'm making the Bruiser-esque play of calling him and then checking, because I think it's so likely that he'll continue to bet the river if he was semi-bluffing with few outs. And of course, he'll bet a blank with TTT, and he'll pay off for sure with it if you bet 3000 on an A/K. I think a Jack is the only card you don't want to see on the river, or possibly a King.

After thinking about it some more, you can make a case for taking the same line if you think he might have 8 outs, except of course that you'd be cautious with many more river cards. The decision hinges on how likely he is to continue to bluff a missed draw. In my experience, people are more likely to follow up when they were bluffing with very few outs, rather than with many, so if an OESD is in the mix, I'd just re-raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow what a great post. Cero, how many villans would you continue to check a blank river against? Making a bluff raise of 2500 is one thing, but how many guys have the gusto to stick the next 6000 in when it is pretty clear that hero doesn't have a draw...? Also, if you call and a jack hits, what do you do?

Generally, if he has AA/KK and a blank river hits, you aren't getting another penny if you check (and he is good). There just aren't any better hands that he can bluff out of the pot. With the high probability he has AK, if a jack comes off, can you really block and fold to a push? What about the times that he has JJ/TT and he thinks he is good...perhaps the right idea is to just commit yourself to calling a push on the end?

Really tough hand.

[banditbdl]

Villain's turn raise just really strikes me as AA/KK that doesn't want to give up on the hand yet but is probably unwilling to put any more money into the pot at this point. I think your best bet is to push and hope you've gotten under his skin enough to get a bad call from him or that he backed into a set on the turn.

Can you say the name of the player (might help the hand analysis some). I think here I like a "johnny chan" (vs. negreanu) and min re-raise his raise of the turn. Essentially, this "committs" both of you to the hand, and makes it look very weakish to a hand like AA. Also, if he does smell a rat and flat calls the min-reraise, he can't lay down on the river. IMHO, it looks like is he trying to see a cheap showdown with AA/KK and will not put more money in the pot on river, thus your only chance is to raise here (unless he is a complete donkey which he does not appear to be). Also, it makes your river action much easier. Push on blank, check-call on scare scard. Also, for the slight possibility he has 1010, u will stack him.

[Matt Flynn]

Hi neon,

Flop's fine. Turn you reduced your chances of stacking him by betting $500, and you reduced your earn vs AA/KK, so presumably you think he is overaggressive for big bets. Otherwise I don't like your turn play. River I would discount OESD because it is highly unlikely. AK is possible but unlikely, and you only give 4 outs for max upside of a pot bet and thus it costs approx 0.2 pots - WHEN PRESENT - not to raise. Not enough if a raise would blow AA/KK out when they would otherwise call a river bet. Slowplaying criteria are met. You have that option. [Note: Your opponent being able to make a second best hand is not a necessary condition for slowplaying.]

If he has a set it is >90% a set of tens and you get his stack almost always no matter how you play it. You can ignore that event. AA/KK seems far more likely for him than [AK/draw hands that will fire on the river]. If he's nutty aggressive you call, then check. Otherwise your optimal strategy approaches maximizing vs AA/KK. I would visualize him having AA/KK and play accordingly.

So now the question gets difficult, because play is so heuristic. My starting point is call the turn and bet 3K on the river. You have several interacting probability clouds that you can define to confirm or disprove that "default."

Matt

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been playing a pretty straightforward TAG game, as that's all that seems to be necessary to beat this game to pieces.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I reraised villain's $100 open to $400 from the SB w/ AsQs

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Garland

[AZK]

gar you really need to get out more

[cero_z]

Hi Matt,

[ QUOTE ]
AA/KK seems far more likely for him than [AK/draw hands that will fire on the river]...your optimal strategy approaches maximizing vs AA/KK. I would visualize him having AA/KK and play accordingly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. As I said, a lot hinges on how good this guy is, because I don't think many good players would raise AA/KK to 2500 on the turn. If you do think those hands are the likeliest, then I'd assume he took that rarely-taken line I mentioned of getting "cheaply" to the river. In this case, I think even 3000 on the river is too much, and I'd call and bet about 2000.

[Matt Flynn]

$2,000's interesting - I was trying to talk myself down to $2,500 there. We will have to further debate over beers in Tunica.

[coltrane]

hey buddy,

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think many good players would raise AA/KK to 2500 on the turn. If you do think those hands are the likeliest, then I'd assume he took that rarely-taken line I mentioned of getting "cheaply" to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

really?.....I see this line used a LOT.....and I think that live, and considering how deep they are, and the fact that villain has position makes this a fine play by villain on the turn if he has AA.....he just got led weakly into after hero check/called his bet - why shell up and also let him have a cheap card?.....now look, I can see the argument that worse hands are gonna fold to the turn raise, BUT, if he's ahead it's still a value bet without giving a free card, and he puts hero in a spot where he completely reveals his hand so villain will know immediately if he's beat and not put another dime in the pot.....

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
really?.....I see this line used a LOT.....and I think that live, and considering how deep they are, and the fact that villain has position makes this a fine play by villain on the turn if he has AA.....he just got led weakly into after hero check/called his bet - why shell up and also let him have a cheap card?.....now look, I can see the argument that worse hands are gonna fold to the turn raise, BUT, if he's ahead it's still a value bet without giving a free card, and he puts hero in a spot where he completely reveals his hand so villain will know immediately if he's beat and not put another dime in the pot.....

[/ QUOTE ]

A cheap card to what? What possible draw can hero have? He has position, and knows hero is not drawing. Why reopen the betting in this already big pot?

I agree that he could be doing this with the plan of not putting any more money in the pot. One problem is that this is not as easy as it sounds. While he can fold to a push, it will be really hard to fold AA if hero just calls, and then bets less than half the pot on the river. And villain has stupidly inflated the pot to the point where 1/2 the pot is 175 big blinds.

He is much better off letting a hand like KK or AQ take off a "cheap" card here (since they have so few outs), than he is opening himself up to losing a huge pot with one pair.

So even if villain is able to make this raise, and then fold for $3K on the river (when the pot is $7K), I still don't like this. First off, actually folding there is a lot harder than it sounds. Secondly, hero is unlikley to have many outs if he is behind (and won't be calling the raise).

[okayplayer]

I like a call and push on the river. If you think he is real weak tight and will fold to a push, make it something like half your remaining stack, say $2500. I really see Villain as having AA/KK here, and most likely AA.

FWIW, I am not a fan of the weak turn bet, I would have potted it, so that when he raises, it basically is an all in for you. I think his turn raise is a way to get a cheap showdown, and I would not check this river fearing him checking behind.

I think he may just be bluffing your fake blocking bet and would have no intention of putting more money in the pot if you raised. This might be one of the few times I would go for a check/raise on the river. Actually, if he bets the river, he will probably just put you all in. There is a LOT of money in the pot and if Villain doesn't have a very good hand, he will want that $5K badly.

If you read that he has a decent hand, then I recommend pushing or calling and pushing the river.

After thinking over the hand, it is most likely you put him on AA/KK, so I would call and value bet the river.

[neon]

Wow, some really great discussion so far.

Villain in this hand is a quiet, oldish gentleman with a graying beard. I don't know what his name is.

He plays well, and though I'm not positive if he plays well enough to have eight outs against me on the turn, I have seen him do some pretty quirky stuff (fire flop and turn, overbet the river w/ TPTK to represent a bigger hand in a HU pot vs. another good player, for example [he got called and they chopped]).

So let's just say while I considered villain having J9 or KJ a possibility, it seemed to be a remote one, and much, much less likely than his having AA or KK or TT, and slightly less likely than AK or some sort of bluff hand that's drawing dead.

I'm gonna have to come back later (tomorrow, probably) to respond to some of the great posts you guys have made, cause I'm about an 8.5/10 for my hangover quotient at the moment, and really won't be able to give them the thought they deserve.

Thanks for the responses so far though.

[coltrane]

yeah, I agree with you Post-Oak, and I myself might've just called.....however, I still don't think the raise line is "awful" - especially when dealing with certain meta-game and table-image type things....if villain CAN get away (which I agree will sometimes be difficult if hero only bets half-pot or something on the river) and make good reads and good folds, I can see him taking a stand and not even allowing hero to possibly catch a 5-outer on the river......when playing live, sometimes you can just tell when someone has a set....

[ QUOTE ]
......when playing live, sometimes you can just tell when someone has a set....

[/ QUOTE ]

...Especially in that deep of game.

[AEKDBet]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he may just be bluffing your fake blocking bet and would have no intention of putting more money in the pot if you raised. This might be one of the few times I would go for a check/raise on the river. Actually, if he bets the river, he will probably just put you all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding!

[tewall]

[ QUOTE ]
furthermore, check calling does not show strength. that is weak tight thinking. strength can be one interpretation but it is usually weakness. [ QUOTE ]


Unless hero is an awful player, check-calling must show strength. With the given flop, he's not drawing. So given the action, what weak hand could he have?

[neon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you lead the flop, you will stack him every time he has AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

they have 450 BB's and villain is a good player....this isn't party poker.....

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree, and therefore threw all the standard stacking off 100BBs w/ a set vs. an overpair lines (lead/3-bet flop, check-call flop, CR turn) out the window.



[ QUOTE ]
an all-in protects the pot, but there's no way he's calling without three tens

[/ QUOTE ]

During the hand, I actually thought that there was some chance villain would call a turn push with AA, but now I'm not so sure . . .


[ QUOTE ]
if you've got him squarely on AA/KK, I like maybe taking a chance and doing something goofy like mini-ish raising him back $2500 and then betting the rest on the river.....he might not go for that either, but I think it's got some shot....

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely considered doing something weird like this; the effective stacks make it really awkward to get the money in here (at least w/ the line I took, which I was rather fond of at the time, but I think may be slightly less than ideal). During the hand I struggled with the need to balance a few competing dynamics, namely, the degree to which villain thinks I'm full of [censored]/the frequency with which he'll look me up w/ one pair as a result, getting the most money in the pot, and the potential for scaring away all but three tens, either by betting too much and just blasting him out, or by making an all-too transparent value bet . . .

The problem I saw with this is that there's really little difference between min-reraising villain on the turn and just pushing over the top. I mean, what could he possibly expect to happen on the river other than for me to stick the rest in? I think I'd like this line a lot more if the effective stacks had been, say, another 100 BBs, or if I had assigned a higher likelihood to villain having an eight-out or even a four-out hand against me.

[neon]

Hi cero z,

Great post.

[ QUOTE ]
What I would first try to determine here is whether this guy can have 8 outs against me, meaning, can he have made it 400 to go with KJ or J9. Only a terrible or excellent player will make that re-raise pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think it was very likely at all for villain to have 8 outs. Four with AK, possibly, but I would have been much more apt to give him credit for a gutshot if the turn had brought two to a suit and the possibility that he picked up the nut flush draw as well. Since it was a rainbow board, I didn't think a drawing hand was all that likely once he popped the turn.


[ QUOTE ]
Then, I'd make sure that he's not bad enough to be raising with AA or KK here. Most good players would not make this play, since that bet is very unlikely to be called by a good player unless AA/KK is beaten, and it makes it harder for him to get away from it as the pot grows. Note: You could make an argument that if he has AA/KK, he could make that raise with the plan of not putting another penny in the pot, hoping you'll call and try a river check-raise if you have a monster. He might reason that 2500 is the cheapest he can get to the river. But, this play is very rare from a good player, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]


I have to admit, I was quite puzzled by villain's turn raise, since I did have him pretty squarely on AA/KK up to that point, and while he is not a bad player, I agree that raising these hands on the turn is a pretty terrible play, unless he was indeed trying to see a cheap showdown, hoping I would go for a CR on the river w/ a set, or freeze up w/ an overplayed AQ or KK.

[neon]

Hello Mr. Flynn,

[ QUOTE ]
Turn you reduced your chances of stacking him by betting $500, and you reduced your earn vs AA/KK, so presumably you think he is overaggressive for big bets. Otherwise I don't like your turn play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I don't think I like my turn play either.

Assuming that AA/KK is by far his most likely holding, and keeping in mind that villain thinks I'm at least a little bit full of [censored], what turn line do you like here, Matt?


[ QUOTE ]
If he has a set it is >90% a set of tens and you get his stack almost always no matter how you play it. You can ignore that event. AA/KK seems far more likely for him than [AK/draw hands that will fire on the river]. If he's nutty aggressive you call, then check. Otherwise your optimal strategy approaches maximizing vs AA/KK. I would visualize him having AA/KK and play accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

100% agreed, and basically my thought processes during the hand. I didn't think it very likely he was drawing, and was pretty sure that if he was bluffing with one pair that was drawing dead (JJ/99), that he was done once I called his turn raise.

[neon]

I thought for a bit, called villain's turn bet, and then quickly bet $3k on a river blank. Villain didn't agonize for too long before muttering, "Ok, you win," and mucking his hand. He then picked his chips up and left.

In retrospect, I think he either had KK or was bluffing. I really think that given image/metagame considerations, AA looks me up on the river, but then again, perhaps $3K was a bit too much. During the hand, my thought process was basically that if villain has a set, all the money's going in no matter what, and that if he had a one-pair bluff hand, he wasn't putting another dime in once I called his turn raise. It seemed optimal to play the hand as if he had AA/KK, and so I tried to take a line that would look like AQ or perhaps KK, hoping to capitalize upon our recent history and get him to pay off with one pair in a spot he probably almost never would.

The weak lead on the turn is something I don't often see from strong hands, so I thought it would look like either an AQ-ish hand, or perhaps just some vulnerable holding in general, and that villain would try to blow me off my hand no matter what he had.

It was from there that I didn't really know how to proceed. I considered Coltrane's idea of min-reraising, but thought that the effective stacks were a tad too shallow for that to work, as it would in essence be the same as pushing the turn, since the rest is obviously going in on the river anyway. That line is great, though, for keeping up my full-of-[censored] appearance.


I also think, judging by his comment and the fact that he left the table immediately following the hand, that there's a chance he was bluffing and that he might have pushed if I had checked to him on the river. Oh well. I don't think I gave this possibility quite enough thought during the hand, instead focusing on how to get the money from AA or perhaps KK.

Thanks for all the replies.

[lapoker17]

I didn't really follow this thread, so this was probably already covered, but I think this has to be a no brainer, call the turn-raise/check the river. It probably won't work that often, but as I see it it's the only way you get any more money here ever.

[okayplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I also think, judging by his comment and the fact that he left the table immediately following the hand, that there's a chance he was bluffing and that he might have pushed if I had checked to him on the river. Oh well. I don't think I gave this possibility quite enough thought during the hand, instead focusing on how to get the money from AA or perhaps KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think that his bluff frequency here has to be pretty big for a check to be correct? I didn't do the exact math, but guesstimate that it has to be ~32% or higher. (I guess this assumes he calls a half stack bet on river with AA/KK...) What bluff % did you estimate him to have there (in the heat of the moment and maybe post hand)?

[cero_z]

Hey neon,

Thanks for the detailed anlaysis and the results. Given the way you described this player, he sounds very good, and he would be a candidate for the type of guy to use the 2500 to get to the showdown "cheaply", when he feels that he really needs to get to the showdown. A lot of folks just can't stomach putting 2500 in there when they think they're behind fairly often--I think this is bad thinking. If it loses the least, it loses the least, even if the "least" stings.