A shania post

[elindauer]

Here's something to ponder...

Most people are familiar with the idea that it might just be possible to add some -EV hands to your mix and produce a game which has a higher EV than before you started. This possibility has always intrigued me, but I could never quite figure out any practical application of it.

Until just now.

My problem, I think, has been that I've always thought of adding hands that are just slightly -EV to the mix. Well, I don't think that raising AT UTG is going to suddenly spark my game. However, what if I add some hands that most players think are VERY -EV?

Hmmm... now that might have some interesting side effects. Naturally, against your typical multitabling TAG who is using some kind of stat tracker, I'm probably just giving away a bit of my edge. But what about the rest of the table?

Let's say that from now on, I raise 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif no matter what the action to me. I don't even have to take it that far... let's say I'll raise if no one has yet raised. What would happen?

Well, first, I'll win sometimes without showing. Then other times I'll catch and lay a nasty bad beat on someone. Still other times, I'll show it down and lose, either because I bluffed all the way, or because I made a 2nd best hand.

Every time I show the 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif down, my opponents are going to notice. They are going to make little notes that say "maniac. raises any 2 preflop."...

Oops. They are going to give me way too much action. Bam. Shania improves.


I think the key to this concept is that the hand has to have no redeeming qualities whatsoever. Obviously, you want to play a hand that doesn't cost you too much, but your opponents can't attribute you any solid thinking when they see the showdown. They have to see it and think, man, that guy sucks.


I'm considering adding two such plays to my arsenal. Some kind of goofy EP limp (reraise?) where I'll pick a particular hand, like the 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and one open raise in MP, again with a particular hand. I'll change the actual choices randomly throughout the day, but I'll always know before the hand starts what cards are going to set off my backwards plays.

Any takers? Am I just giving away money?

-eric

I make the same play with 9-10 anytime i get it in early pos. I always raise, and i do this for the reasons you stated in the OP.

I think that it's worthy to add one or two hands like this to your mix, but make it a hand that has chance, i.e, not 6-4, IMO.

[newhizzle]

how would you go about randomizing the hands that you choose?

just have a list of crap hands or something and every hour or so or once you show one down, randomly pick a new one?

i think this is an interesting idea, how far postflop would you be willing to go?

like if you have very little chance of winning, will you be trying to push people off their hands if they show resistance?

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I make the same play with 9-10 anytime i get it in early pos. I always raise, and i do this for the reasons you stated in the OP.

I think that it's worthy to add one or two hands like this to your mix, but make it a hand that has chance, i.e, not 6-4, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like we're thinking along the same lines, but my suggestion is slightly different. That is, raising T9 is obviously loose, and maybe that is all you need to do to convince your opponents that you are bad and get excess action. I assume you are not raising hands like JT, QJ, KJ, etc, right?

But there are 16 combinations of T9, and only one combination of 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Raising T9 is laggy, raising 62 is stupidly absurdly laggy. Which is better? You give up less equity per hand, but do it 16x more often... you get to show more often, which is good, but...

Well, food for thought. Thanks for the suggestion.

-eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
how would you go about randomizing the hands that you choose?

just have a list of crap hands or something and every hour or so or once you show one down, randomly pick a new one?

i think this is an interesting idea, how far postflop would you be willing to go?

like if you have very little chance of winning, will you be trying to push people off their hands if they show resistance?

[/ QUOTE ]

These are all excellent questions for which I would like suggestions. My first instinct is to play these rare hands hard, provided that you think the fold equity is at least close to being there. The added benefit of having the table think you are insane makes up for a lot of mistakes in this one rare hand.

-eric

[elindauer]

One other question... would you share your stats in EP for T9 and for all hands combined?

thanks.
eric

why do they have to be random? i.e., truly random? why can;t you just pick the hand? like K5s, or 10-8, whatever? do you see a benefit in it being a truly random hand or are you just using random as an expresion?

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
why do they have to be random? i.e., truly random? why can;t you just pick the hand? like K5s, or 10-8, whatever? do you see a benefit in it being a truly random hand or are you just using random as an expresion?

[/ QUOTE ]

well K5s or T8o is going to come up far more often than 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif exactly and if a very observant opponent sees you show down 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif exactly more than twice or so, they may catch on, choosing a random exact hand is a way of adding game thoery to your play(i think)

[teddyFBI]

iNTerting idea and something I"ve considered myself many times, but as far as i can tell, there's no point in completely randomizing the hands you do this with -- i mean: if you're going to pick a hand from UTG that you wouldn't play otherwise, you should at least pick one that has the most preflop equity -- maybe 22 or 78s or a suited K or Q.

[roy_miami]

I wouldn't do this online because I doubt it will be noticed enough to have the desired effect. For the most part your opponents are multitabling and using HUD to look at your PFR%, probably not looking at your notes. If I'm playing against someone tight with a PFR percentage of 7 and I see them raise 64o I will just pass it off as an anomaly. If your PFR % is 15 or 16 and I see you raise 64o from EP it may get you more action from me.

Live it may be a good strategy.

[xmrstyle]

That type of play makes poker FUN. Do any of you 16/8/3 guys actually have fun while playing online?

/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Brom]

I enjoy taking people's money that are there to "play for fun". So yes, I get my jollies.

[Dan Rutter]

Would how long you have been at a particular table, and who your opponents are affect your decision to make the play. For example, say you have been playing at a table for 2+ hours, and the oponents have been the same the entire time you have been at the table. Your image has not been one that makes loose, wild raises Pre-flop. At this time you are dealt 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. How many of your opponents in this situation would realistically attribute this raise to your normal playing style? Would this play get them to change an opinion of you enough to make the play have benefit?

[scdavis0]

I definitely think that showing down that 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif once every 20,000 hands or so is going to do wonders for your table image.

Misclick...next

[elindauer]

Having played at a table for a couple hours with a solid player, I likely still wouldn't have too many notes on them. I tend to note things that I think are poor about a player, so I rarely make notes that read "this guy plays well".

So, even after a couple hours of play, I probably don't have too much written about an otherwise good player. Then he suddenly shows down 64 for a raise in MP. My first thought is, hmmm, I'm surprised I haven't noticed this doofus before and make a note: raises 64 in MP. Then I probably start 3-betting the hell out of him.

That's just me. I don't watch every action of every player. I just note the exceptions. I suspect someone who played a bizarre raise like this might throw me off for a while.

-eric

[mex78753]

[ QUOTE ]
I definitely think that showing down that 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif once every 20,000 hands or so is going to do wonders for your table image.

[/ QUOTE ]

The above is a very good point. You're going to need more than just 1 particular hand for people to even notice. Otherwise, you're just senselessly losing money.

I got PT like, three days ago....

I'll be happy to after enought time has past for it to show up in my game...

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I definitely think that showing down that 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif once every 20,000 hands or so is going to do wonders for your table image.

[/ QUOTE ]

The above is a very good point. You're going to need more than just 1 particular hand for people to even notice. Otherwise, you're just senselessly losing money.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wonder if 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif couldn't make money UTG if your opponents are observant and your UTG range is something like AA-TT, AK-AQ, AJs, KQs, and 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Anyone really paying attention to you is going to notice you fold 80% of the time.

[olavfo]

[ QUOTE ]
Oops. They are going to give me way too much action. Bam. Shania improves.


[/ QUOTE ]
This will be partly counterbalanced by the fact that it will be much harder for you to bluff successfully.

Also, when they give you more action, they will outdraw you more frequently, so you'll experience larger swings.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone really paying attention to you is going to notice you fold 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is of course true. However, anyone really paying attention to me may notice things like how I never raise 64 and take advantage by playing back at me on rag flops. If I raise these hands, even just occassionally, perhaps I plant some extra doubt in their mind about just exactly what it is I'm doing. Am I always raising all combinations of 64 and just haven't been dealt it very often yet? Am I changing gears right now? There's no way for him to know, and that's the point. He can know that I play 20% of hands, but which 20%? If I showdown 64, it's harder for him to understand my thinking. He can't play as well against me, so perhaps my loss of EV on this one hand is offset by greater gains on other hands.

Then again, perhaps not. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

It's interesting to note that against this type of play, the best defense is not to notice. Don't try this in a small stakes game!

-eric

[DeeJ]

I like to do this. But I like to pick worse hands (like 72o or 93o) so that if I am caught out, it looks even worse than if I'm playing T9o early, which just makes me look like a fish. It often has the perverse effect of making people fold against you (because they work out the simple 'bluff' strategy) ... 72o from UTG is especially joyous. I don't do this in tournies /images/graemlins/grin.gif except late when it's an occasional steal against shortish stacked blinds.

[mex78753]

I think if you changed your criteria to include any combination of 64 instead of a suit-based combination, it will have a much better effect.

Another great tactic would be for you to change your shania hand every session so that observant opponents think you're randomly raising garbage hands from time to time.

[punter11235]

I play only NL but I often do the following (especially if I play lower stakes than usual) : I announce to the table that I will raise or reraise preflop every time I get 96. Then I show every time its come up. There is really nothing my opponents can do about it , because 90%+ of my raises are still normal... but showing this 96 often put sb on tilt /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I think its related idea.
The problem with limit is that your bluffing frequency should be much lower there (because of lower bets comparing to pot size) so I dont think you can add many hands to the mix.


Best wishes

[elindauer]

You got it punter. In NL, this same concept makes much more sense, as the value of deception in that game is increased. If they have trouble pinning down your starting range, your winrate should improve.

In your example, you might do better to conceal the details of what you are doing. Instead of always raising 96, for example, you could do something like pick a crappy hand (96), raise the first time you get it, show. Now change hands. Raise 84 next time you get it. show. change hands. Raise T3 next time you get it. show.


In this way, you've added 16 random starting combinations to your preflop raises. Nobody knows this but you though, unless they do an incredibly detailed analysis of your play. Did you add 100 combinations? 8? It's very difficult to tell if you just happen to have hit on a couple of your random raises and rarely do it, or if you are changing gears and don't care what the cards are, or if you always play these hands whenever they are dealt, or if you randomly raise every 17th hand, or...

Force them to figure it out, and they may guess wrong.

-eric

[eviljeff]

isn't this the idea behind the granny mae?

[ErrantNight]

doing this with ONLY 9To almost defeats the purpose... and misses the point to some degree...

varying the cards is important.

what he seems to be getting at... what DERB may be extremely proficient at... and what "Shania" is talking about... is game theory. advanced game theory. it's touched on in the 2+2 books... primarily with discussion of bluffing frequency.

fwiw, i think that opponents who may (or may actually) play with blinders on are still not immune to noticing terribly obvious things... like extremely aggressive play... like making terrible river showdowns... and i think that a complete lack of capacity to read hands or boards or remember players should be confused with that

[Lestat]

When I see someone with otherwise reasonable stats make the plays you describe, I dismiss it. So I think you need to include a few more hands. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[PokerCad]

I don't think this play is effective on-line as I agree most players are just not paying this close attention. However live, it can be effective as an example, this last weekend at Resorts, East Chicago, I was playing in the 20-40 game, not being a regular and having an apparant table image of TAG I was getiing no action on most of my PFR's, to mix it up I started raising 2-3O/S first 2 no shows stole pot, the third time I raised and was re-raised, I called and saw a flop of AK2, I bet, raise, call turn rag I check/call River 2, I bet raise I re-raise, villian had AK. I realize I got lucky winning the hand but for the rest of the night that hand stood out around the whole table and loosened up the play towards me while allowing me to play my regular TAG style for a profitable session. So was the play expert? I dunno, was it dumb luck? I dunno, I am still learning from many of the better players in this forum. Just thought I would outline a situation where I believe this move was very effective.

Jeff /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ErrantNight]

isn't it possible that since DERB seems to play this way... and no one on the 2p2 boards has succesfully identified how he's winning... and everyone seems to dismiss out of hand the possibility that one's play can influence their opponents because "no one pays attention" ... that perhaps people are too easily dismissing the capacity of even donkeys to notice at least SOMETHING?

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
isn't this the idea behind the granny mae?

[/ QUOTE ]
the what?

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]

Another great tactic would be for you to change your shania hand every session so that observant opponents think you're randomly raising garbage hands from time to time.

[/ QUOTE ]

They'd be right, no?

[asofel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
isn't this the idea behind the granny mae?

[/ QUOTE ]
the what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[TwoNiner]

Personally I think a much better idea that Izmet Fekali talked about a long time ago is raising crap like A-3(s) and K5(s) or q8 (s) in position. He was talking about it in context of a loose game and I think 4 or more limpers and showed through Turbo simulations that it would actually be profitable, but if you knock down the number of limpers and make it a tougher game I'm sure it would become immediately unprofitable. But at least we would be starting from some sort of base. You give up less this way than raising 3-7 UTG so you can employ it more and get your point across rather than raising once every 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and in reallity someone raising k-4(s) after a few limpers is going to get pretty similar notes made as a dude raising pure crap up front. They both are obvious blunders but since ours cost us less we can advertise it more. Plus in position you have a lot better chance of showing the hand down at a cheaper cost which really is the metagame point.

[climber]

I've read a few of those posts as well and have recently started doing stuff like this occassioanly UTG after I've been at a table a while and feel like I have a few decent reads on people postflop. I think the key is that no one knows its not a part of your normal range you are raising this time so you need to make sure you cap with the same frequency and don't just give up when 3-bet. Capping gives you way more fold equity.

Ultimately just take down the blinds is a great success--but making some decent hands with your crap can really have great advertising value.

Heres one from earlier today...a lot of the time the flop gives you somehting to work with and you just play poker from there. This is 5 handed and I'm UTG. Awesome table.
Villian is agro fish that ususally goes weak tight to turn and river raises.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Obviously having both the K and Q sucks but this guys 3-bettng range is very wide and he donks almost evey flop.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

And when sketchy stuff like this doesn't work they just think you are the biggest moron ever and cap every street next time you flop two pair to their big overpair.

I know this isnt a mid-high hand but i love the discussion in here and aspire to be here one day soon.

I'd love to hear other people's thoughts as to which hands to do this with. I know I've read some author advocate saving this kind of stuff for your very forst crap s it expands your range without taking away from the good hands you play as it would if you started doing this with stuff like KTo.

I've also read Abdul and Izmet's thoughts on doing this with K2s, Q6s, and I assume that must be what someone said above--so you have some value to build from...however I play alot of 6 max and this angle seems less i mprotant SH as you dont end up at showdown as much.

Anybody else conciously make these plays?

I fear my example above is actually one of going too far and not knowing when to give up--which should likely be after his flop donk--or at least on the turn--at least against a more rational opponent.

Anyways just wanted to put one actual example out there.