Folded To River Bet (PT, Misc Tab)

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Just going over my PT stats (post-split) and everything looks pretty much as it always has as far as vpip, wr, WSD, etc (running slightly better than avg but not overly so)...

I really have a question about my Folded To River Bet though. Over these 33k+ hands my FTRB is a whopping 47.99%. Is this a leak or not necessarily? What is this a symptom of? Basically, I don't know of any significant winner at 10/20 who comes close to this number and I just want to know what I might be doing that is causing me to fold to so many river bets...

Also, if there is any point in me posting my complete PT stats over this stretch I can do that...

Thanks for any insight,

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[Grisgra]

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Just going over my PT stats (post-split) and everything looks pretty much as it always has as far as vpip, wr, WSD, etc (running slightly better than avg but not overly so)...

I really have a question about my Folded To River Bet though. Over these 33k+ hands my FTRB is a whopping 47.99%. Is this a leak or not necessarily? What is this a symptom of? Basically, I don't know of any significant winner at 10/20 who comes close to this number and I just want to know what I might be doing that is causing me to fold to so many river bets...

Also, if there is any point in me posting my complete PT stats over this stretch I can do that...

Thanks for any insight,

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Could be a leak, could be that you're relying on your reads more on the river and it's a +EV move for you. My FRB was 43% at the 5/10 and I was crushing it . . . and to be honest, after my experience with 20/40, the 10/20 now feels like 5/10 did back then.

So probably a little high, but I don't think it automatically means anything. Maybe post some hands where you make marginal river folds and see what everyone else thinks . . .

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Could be a leak, could be that you're relying on your reads more on the river and it's a +EV move for you. My FRB was 43% at the 5/10 and I was crushing it . . . and to be honest, after my experience with 20/40, the 10/20 now feels like 5/10 did back then.

So probably a little high, but I don't think it automatically means anything. Maybe post some hands where you make marginal river folds and see what everyone else thinks . . .

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That's pretty much what I wanted to hear /images/graemlins/laugh.gif. Thanks.

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[Surfbullet]

hey __1__,

I've don't worry about aberrations in my PT stats much anymore, especially as my game becomes more read-based. I would agree with Grisgra that posting some marginal river folds is probably a good idea, but if you are happy with your play don't do anything drastic.

Surf

[jba]

i have always suspected this stat takes a very very long time to converge -- I think 33k hands provides a fairly small sample set of you vs river bet.

[Jeff W]

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I really have a question about my Folded To River Bet though. Over these 33k+ hands my FTRB is a whopping 47.99%. Is this a leak or not necessarily?

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I don't think it is necessarily a leak.

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Also, if there is any point in me posting my complete PT stats over this stretch I can do that...

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I don't think there is much point. I doubt your stats will be anything that we all haven't seen before and the analysis you get won't help your game.

[cartman]

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Also, if there is any point in me posting my complete PT stats over this stretch I can do that...


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I would very much like to see your complete PT stats for this stretch. Although I'm sure you know how to play the river, your folded to river bet stat is extraordinarily high compared to most. It is possible that some of your other stats may be able to offer some insight into the reason for this. For instance, particularty your bet/raise/check/fold may indicate somehow that you get into positions more frequently than other players in which folding on the river is correct. It could also be that you are simply better at estimating the likelihood that you are beaten than the rest of us and you are consequently able to fold when we are unsure enough that we have to pay off. I am also curious as to what your folded to river bet has been historically.

Cartman

[sammy_g]

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i have always suspected this stat takes a very very long time to converge -- I think 33k hands provides a fairly small sample set of you vs river bet.

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It would be an interesting project to take a large, datamined PT database and attempt to perform satistical analysis on it to determine how quickly various important stats converge.

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It could also be that you are simply better at estimating the likelihood that you are beaten than the rest of us and you are consequently able to fold when we are unsure enough that we have to pay off

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Honestly, I doubt this is the case.

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I am also curious as to what your folded to river bet has been historically.

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Over the previous 250kish hands its been around 43-45%.

Regardless, since it could help I guess, I'll post my complete PT stats for this stretch within the hour.

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[bugstud]

nice bb/sb numbers. I gotta start runnin like that

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nice bb/sb numbers. I gotta start runnin like that

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Yeah, considering that recent rake increase, I think my true overall wr is between 1.9 and 2.05. I do, however, think those blind numbers are quite sustainable.

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[SteveY]

Hey

I also have a high river fold %, higher than yours, but waayy less hands (maybe 9K total in 10/20 and 20K in 5/10). mine's like 50%

Ive thought a bit about why i could have this different stat too.

I think, for me at least, one problem could be that I peel the flop too much. Usually borderline peels include backdoor draws, and then you fall into the pattern of calling the turn b/c the turn card gives you a legit draw, but folding the river since you miss.

Another thing is that i have higher flop and turn agg (like 3 on both streets), and I would think that a higher agg factor on those streets should mean that you're getting more information about your opponent's hand, which means that you should be folding more in general, including some more river folds.

also maybe i am just more willing to fold on the river, which is probably, or most certainly, bad at 10/20 6m.

just some theories, but im not an expert at PT and have less 6m experience than other posters in the thread.

Edit: i also used to do a lot of this kind of thinking when put to a turn decision: "ill call the turn and if he bets the river again ill fold b/c i dont think he would bet the river w/o a real hand" (very to OP's thought process in this thread: http://tinyurl.com/d5kx3)

I dont do it anymore, or at least not as often. i think it could be a bad habit to get into.

[cartman]

Here are your raise/bet/call/check/fold/AF by street with mine from a recent 50K hand stretch in parenthesis:

_____ Raise%__________Bet%__________Call%_______Check%__ ______Fold%_______AF
Flop:9.81(7.16)___31.05(33.81)___15.51(15.03)___26 .06(25.75)___17.57(18.25)___2.63(2.73)
Turn:5.04(5.43)___34.23(30.39)___16.93(17.38)___28 .27(32.11)___15.54(14.68)___2.32(2.06)
River:4.27(5.56)__28.35(30.47)___17.78(20.98)___34 .87(32.30)___14.73(10.69)___1.84(1.72)

Folded to a River Bet: 48.07(35.75)


At the time, I think my folded to river bet was still probably too low and I have since brought it up to around 40%. It appears to me that there are a few differences in our numbers:

1) On the flop you raise more and bet less than I do--our other flop stats are the same. I suspect this is because at the time of these stats I led into the preflop raiser quite a bit where you probably checkraise and also because my PFR is about 19 and yours is 17 which means I am in a position to autobet more often. I have sense started checkraising more and all but stopped leading into the preflop raiser so I suspect our numbers are almost identical now. Regardless, I don't think this has much bearing on the the fold to a river bet stat.

2) On the turn our stats are identical except for the fact that you bet substantially more than I do and check substantially less. I suspect this is because you often bet -fold in position when I instead check behind and call a river bet with marginal but showdownable hands. This is something that I probably do too much of. I also sometimes go into check-call mode on the turn when I am out of position with the lead. I suspect that this is the start of the domino effect that leads to the difference in our fold to a river bet stats.

3) On the river you bet less, raise less and check more than I do and also call less and obviously fold more. It is my speculation that the fact that you bet the turn so much more means that you get checked to much more on the river in situations where I face bets which I usually call because I checked behind on the turn. It is also possible that out of position you can check-fold because the fact that your opponent called your turn bet means that you are beaten in spots where I went into check-call mode on the turn and therefore have to call more river follow through bets because of my weakness on the turn.

Out of curiosity, how frequently do you check-fold the turn out of position on the river with a weak pair after being the aggressor on the flop and the turn?

Also how frequently do you check-call the river with a big Ace high?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Victor]

my river aggression is 2.2. do you miss value bets?

[Lmn55d]

it's possible that you bluff more than him or make more river value raises.

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my river aggression is 2.2. do you miss value bets?

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Yes, many in this stretch. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Just some lingering residual effects from that breakeven stretch....

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3) On the river you bet less, raise less and check more than I do and also call less and obviously fold more. It is my speculation that the fact that you bet the turn so much more means that you get checked to much more on the river in situations where I face bets which I usually call because I checked behind on the turn. It is also possible that out of position you can check-fold because the fact that your opponent called your turn bet means that you are beaten in spots where I went into check-call mode on the turn and therefore have to call more river follow through bets because of my weakness on the turn.

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Wow, excellent analysis. I suspect this is probably spot on.

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Out of curiosity, how frequently do you check-fold the turn out of position on the river with a weak pair after being the aggressor on the flop and the turn?


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"How often do I check fold the turn out of position on the river"...Huh? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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Also how frequently do you check-call the river with a big Ace high?

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Sometimes...I don't think this play would have a significant effect either way on that stat.

Great analysis though...very much appreciated!

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[cartman]

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Out of curiosity, how frequently do you check-fold the turn out of position on the river with a weak pair after being the aggressor on the flop and the turn?


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I figured I was the only one that had discovered the out of position turn check on the river. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Seriously, I meant how frequently do you check-fold the river out of position with a weak pair after betting and getting called on the flop and the turn, usually after raising preflop?

Cartman