Any questionable spots?

[krishanleong]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

River: (9 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks...

15/30 is a solidly laggy game in general and this particular table was no exception. UTG was 70/10 and CO was 40/25 and a pain. How does it look?

Krishan

[Surfbullet]

Hey Krishan,

I don't like the flop bet much. It appears given your opponent's loose tendencies / hand ranges and the texture of the board that you won't have much FE. I'd c/c the flop.

I'd also bet the river. Our relative positon to CO is relatively poor, and we shouldn't really worry about KQ b/c of no pfr... were you concerned that a donk would fold players? This river looks like it could definitely make 2pair / 1pair hands that will call your bet, or possibly raise so you can bet-3bet.

Surf

[Lmn55d]

I don't like the flop or the river. On the flop I know you are double gutted but I don't think this is a good spot for the semibluff. Everyone and their mother probably connected with this flop in some way and in a laggy game like this one you're gonna get raised a lot. The bad thing is you will often be raised by an early position player which is no good. Also better straight draws and possible flush draws reduce your equity. I would check the flop.

On the river I would bet to trap UTG and make sure CO doesn't check through. The T is a scary card for someone holding like J8 or something like that and even players with those stats suck at river value bets. If he is laggy it gives you the chance to 3bet as well.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop bet much. It appears given your opponent's loose tendencies / hand ranges and the texture of the board that you won't have much FE. I'd c/c the flop.

I'd also bet the river. Our relative positon to CO is relatively poor, and we shouldn't really worry about KQ b/c of no pfr... were you concerned that a donk would fold players? This river looks like it could definitely make 2pair / 1pair hands that will call your bet, or possibly raise so you can bet-3bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly

[DMBFan23]

surf,

does the double gutter make it a little more forgiveable, or does the flush draw plus potential of making the ass end devalue the "OESD" too much for you regardless? I agree that this would be a godawful board to semibluff at, in the event we did hold a gutshot

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
It appears given your opponent's loose tendencies / hand ranges and the texture of the board that you won't have much FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I have no fold equity. I was just trying to build a pot that I think I had good equity in. The 2 flush really makes that plan unattractive though and I think it was a bad play.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
making the ass end devalue ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ass end is pretty clean since KQ is a 3-betting hand in this game. I probably should discount a little for K8.

KRishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

On the river I would bet to trap UTG and make sure CO doesn't check through. The T is a scary card for someone holding like J8 or something like that and even players with those stats suck at river value bets. If he is laggy it gives you the chance to 3bet as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you are right. I figured my hand was good near 100%. I also thought that UTG would probably not call a lead without a pretty good hand. I don't think he would call closing the action without something either.

I thought that Villian would bet most his holdings so I thought my best chance for a 2 bet river was to cr and not worry about losing UTG.

Normally I lead this river to trap. I think my normal play is correct.

Krishan

[Lmn55d]

you're telling me a 70/10 won't call a river lead in a fairly large pot without a "pretty good hand" ? Come on...

15/30 is out of my league, but I'm not sure what the point of the flop bet is. You've got 6 clean outs, but even then you're subject to redraws. I'd rather check figuring someone will bet it for me, and if it's check around, that's not a huge loss since you're on a draw anyway.

The river seems close on check raising vs trying to bet with the intention of 3-betting a raise.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
you're telling me a 70/10 won't call a river lead in a fairly large pot without a "pretty good hand" ? Come on...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, I don't know.

Truthfully that 70/10 was the toughest (or luckiest) 70/10 I've played. I just couldn't get a good read on him. He definitely folded but he also didn't always have the goods when he made a move.

Krishan

[ggbman]

Ah Krishan! I would rather c/c the flop, but its the river that bothers me. Your position to the CO makes a c/r attempt here bad since you will shut out the rest of the field when you c/r. Bet the river and hope someone raises you.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I know you are double gutted but I don't think this is a good spot for the semibluff. Everyone and their mother probably connected with this flop in some way and in a laggy game like this one you're gonna get raised a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The laggy one is sitting on our right, not on our left. We bet flop because:

1) We want overcard hands to fold because there is a decent chance noone got a 9 or J.

2) We want to build a pot as long as more then 1 player is in it. If we check and its checked around we will hate ourselfs if we hit turn, bet out and everyone folds because pot is so small so it makes no sense to fight for it.

3) We got the laggy guy on our right so if we are lucky we bet, get 2 callers and a raise (and then I would call his raise) and bet out on turn if I hit straight.

I dont see how this flopbet can be so bad. BB and UTG can have any2 cards and CO didnt raise preflop so no need to think he is sitting with an ok hand. Not saying check-calling is bad, but I would normally bet this flop with this lineup.

If we hit turn noone will put us on straight so we will get good action from a lot of hands, 2pair and sets will often slowplay us.

If we instead check-call flop and suddenly attack on turn (if we hit) its a much stronger move and we will get less action.

I would also bet out on this flop if I hit a set or 2pair.

Maybe this is a stupid rule but if I sit on flop and think its pretty 50-50 to bet or checkcall (like in this hand) I normally bet because 1) if I put the pressure on them I can see how they react and 2) strange things can happen as long as I bet. But if I check I let them take control of it all. (One exampel: I bet flop, BB raises, the others fold. I call flop and check turn. He checks turn. River is another blank, I put him on a draw and bet out. He folds a better hand then mine... This will normally not happen if we check-call flop because hand is less defined).

*

On river I would bet because noone will put us on a monster like a straight and we want the 70/10 to stay in.

[Lmn55d]

I think you're right that if we can expect at least 2 others to call the times when a bet doesn't take it down, we don't need much fold equity on the flop to make a bet have higher EV than checking. I guess where we disagree is that a lot of times I think your bet will be raised and you will be left headsup against a made hand, putting 2 bets in with less than 33% equity. To be sure, I think the river check is a significantly worse mistake then the flop bet.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess where we disagree is that a lot of times I think your bet will be raised and you will be left headsup against a made hand, putting 2 bets in with less than 33% equity. To be sure, I think the river check is a significantly worse mistake then the flop bet.

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Yep, and we really dont disagree. If I had a feeling that a bet against a certain lineup would often make it headsup I wouldnt do it.

[IGMorton]

how would your oppinion change if the flop were the same, but the hero held a 9 out flush draw with just a tad more than 33% equity? again, the board looks the same to his opponents with 2 flush, and they are equally as likely to have connected a bit. would you bet that at this table?

in the hero's hand, if there was just a tiny 10% chance his flop bet would get 3 callers (or a mix of callers / raisers), his flop bet probably has value. since his flop bet screams of a flush draw of weak pair, he's probably getting 2 callers with overcards or a pair here. 2 callers is very slightly -EV.

this makes this a bordeline value bet situation imho. why not bet this simply for the sake of table image and future hands?

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
surf,

does the double gutter make it a little more forgiveable, or does the flush draw plus potential of making the ass end devalue the "OESD" too much for you regardless? I agree that this would be a godawful board to semibluff at, in the event we did hold a gutshot

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Tstone,

Without the double gutter this is a horrendous flop bet. Given that these guys raise preflop so frequently we can lower their hand ranges considerably when they each opt to check or call instead of raise...this board will connect with at least one (and many times more than one) of our opponents. We will take this pot down on the flop a very, very small amount of the time. Additionally, leading out allows our LAGy opponents to shut out the remaining players with a 1pair hand that we are in very poor shape against HU.

We have a weak, 6-8 out draw (closer to 6 than 8). Our equity isn't so good, but with this LAGy lineup we can expect 1 bet to go in on the flop if we check since someone will take a shot at it.

I think the river is much worse though, we really want to be trying to bet-3bet this hand to trap as many as possible for 1 and make the most the times when our LAGy aggressor has 2pair+.

Surf

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is much worse though, we really want to be trying to bet-3bet this hand to trap as many as possible for 1 and make the most the times when our LAGy aggressor has 2pair+.
Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I bet the river here as well, though I'm not quite as optimistic about the likelihood of two pair raising the river on a 9TJ board vs a donkbet. (But it will certainly happen some of the time.)

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
how would your oppinion change if the flop were the same, but the hero held a 9 out flush draw with just a tad more than 33% equity? again, the board looks the same to his opponents with 2 flush, and they are equally as likely to have connected a bit. would you bet that at this table?

in the hero's hand, if there was just a tiny 10% chance his flop bet would get 3 callers (or a mix of callers / raisers), his flop bet probably has value. since his flop bet screams of a flush draw of weak pair, he's probably getting 2 callers with overcards or a pair here. 2 callers is very slightly -EV.

this makes this a bordeline value bet situation imho. why not bet this simply for the sake of table image and future hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I prefer flush since it got more outs and will beat a straight. But - as u hint in your post - a straightdraw is more hidden so we will probably get better paid if we hit. Not sure it will be a big difference in BB if we play same hand 1000 times.

The reason I posted in this thread was that everyone said flopbet and riverbet was wrong. I figured someone had to say something like what u say: Its pretty 50-50 on flop, so lets bet.

"Table image" and "future hands" are often used as argument. But as Malmuth says in an essay (Poker essays I-III, I dont know which) in FL holdem we perfer to have a tight, non-bluffing table image because we are so often betting a weak hand and the others will have odds to draw if they just knew what we had.

I think that sometimes when people talk about "table image" and "future hands" they are actually talking about their own style. We should play in a way that dont give our hand away. If we want to bet strong hands on flop, we also have to bet weak hands. If we want to checkraise strong hands, we also have to checkraise weak... etc...