10/20 JTo Blind Battle vs. 10/20 Unknown

[bobbyi]

Opponent is unknown...

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 3 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

[milesdyson]

bet turn (?) and bet a river 8, T, J, Q, K (&lt;-- i like this one the least) or A. check fold anything else?

seems like you pick up some fold equity, and i think it's hard for him to raise you on that turn with a lot of hands he raised with on the flop - but i've only ever played 3/6.

[cartman]

Hi bobbyi,

I think there are two main factors to consider here:

1) Is he capable of folding a pair?
2) Is he likely to bet again on the river with a hand worse than JT?

Against an unknown, I think 1) is practically never the case. I also think that hands worse than ours are unlikely to fire again on the river since an Ace and a King are now on the board. That makes me not like your river bet much. Of course and as always I may be dead wrong.

What is your assessment of 1) and 2)?

Are there other significant factors that I am overlooking?

Thanks,
Cartman

[bobbyi]

Well, the reason I posted it is because I don't know. I could see him having 98/78 and folding to a river bet. A lot of hands he could hold have some draw potential, so even though that was a good turn for me (for example, on the turn I have 14 outs against A9 floppped TPTK), I didn't think it was worth making a move because it was too likely that he would have outs that would force him to call. I wasn't planning to bluff the river when I check/called the turn, but the offsuit ace just seems like a good card for it combined with the king on the turn since any flopped pair can't be too happy now.

[Chobohoya]

If you had hit your draw, were you going to c/r (or check call for a T, maybe) or bet out?

What I'm getting at is that the river donk is too suspicious. He's almost never going to raise you, but given the flop and turn I don't think he's folding very often.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
If you had hit your draw, were you going to c/r (or check call for a T, maybe) or bet out?

[/ QUOTE ]
Bet out. The 8 puts a four-straight on board and I think lots of hands check behind that will make a crying call if I bet. Even if he bets, I think he often doesn't pay off the raise. If he had a pair, the queen would put two overcards on board and I think he may wuss out and take a free showdown if I check.

Really, I think the more relevant question is "If that ace had really helped me would I bet out?"

[Surfbullet]

Hey Bobby,

I've stopped doing these types of fancy bluff-plays against unknowns. The margin for error is very small, and so many players will look you up on the river with any pair just to make sure you've got the Ace.

Surf

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you had hit your draw, were you going to c/r (or check call for a T, maybe) or bet out?

[/ QUOTE ]
Bet out. The 8 puts a four-straight on board and I think lots of hands check behind that will make a crying call if I bet. Even if he bets, I think he often doesn't pay off the raise. If he had a pair, the queen would put two overcards on board and I think he may wuss out and take a free showdown if I check.

Really, I think the more relevant question is "If that ace had really helped me would I bet out?"

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, that is a relevant question. I think a more relevant question is: "Does my opponent think enough to put me on some rough range of hands? If so, is he observant to note that this is how I would play my A-hi hands? If so, is he now capable of acting on this information to fold a pair?"

I don't think all these conditions occur enough to make it worthwhile against unknown 10/20ers. Give me some reads / history to work with and I'll take your side. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Surf