KTo misses, turn raise. [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

obsidian

11-03-2005, 11:11 PM

Both villains are unknowns. However, MP has been playing almost all his hands since I got here and has open limped TT in the CO (which he hit his 2 outer on me with..). Pokerace later showed his VPIP to be 80 after 20 hands.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB bets, MP folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises

This is the last bet I am putting in the pot.

EDIT: unless I hit a K or T.

adamstewart

11-03-2005, 11:23 PM

I often make plays like this with A-high on a low ragged board - but only when I feel the villain is capable of higher level thinking and figures I have missed the board with my overcards, so there's a decent chance he's making a move. Do you feel this way about this villain?

K-high is a little more tricky, as it even further reduces the range of hands we can beat (assuming we're not bluffing again on the river).

Question is: putting in 2 bets to win 5-6 bets, will K-high showdown to win more than about 1 third of the time here?

It's a very close call.

However, the confounding factor here is that you mentioned you wouldn't put any more bets into this pot... BUT, if he 3-bets the turn, you're getting 9:1 money for a call to potentially improve with a Ten or King. Again, *this* is a very close call here.

In conclusion, it seems like a sequence of *marginal* plays here, each of which barely gain us any EV. This seems like we're pouring in a hella lotta bets into this pot just to try to break even. Accordingly, a turn fold is probably the best play.

Adam