Cohnonas Grandes

[ggbman]

Both of my opponents tend to be too loose and aggressive preflop, and are marginal postflop.


Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

River: (12.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, ...

After the BB folds the turn, i am betting literally any river.

What do we think?

[flawless_victory]

i would fold the flop... not only to it look like you may be drawing very slim, but it will stop you from making expensive plays for the pot on turn/river that never work.. haha.

[ggbman]

Even getting 14-1 closing the action with a backdoor flush draw and overs?

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Even getting 14-1 closing the action with a backdoor flush draw and overs?

[/ QUOTE ]reverse implied odds... but really i just said fold cause it helped my joke.

Hmmm... why do i think the button had the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif and called down with top pair here on the river?

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm... why do i think the button had the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif and called down with top pair here on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]
sure looks that way.

two in a row?

[ggbman]

That would have no relevance to whether or not this was a good play.

the relevant part is that i dont think betting the river is a good play here, because the button called the turn. what's he calling the turn with here?

[ggbman]

Literally any spade? Or maybe a weak pair + spade draw that we will fold UI?

I dunno, but, since he was the first one in and the original PF raiser, i think it kinda screams A-high. So he raises PF, calls the cap, calls the flop, calls a raised turn, I just dont see him calling the turn without the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif here. Post the results......

[Paluka]

I think this turn raise is spewing. Two other dudes already put money in on this street.

[mscags]

I would like this a lot more if it was heads up. I think this is just spewing.

[Brom]

I like the turn raise. It is a good bluff card. The problem is that smaller spades than yours will ditch, and bigger ones will almost certainly call with their perceived "redraw". IMO all of your outs are tainted and the move should be used more for fold equity than pot equity obviously. AK or AQ with a spade will call you probably.

I'd give up on the river and hope to take out maybe a JT type hand. I'd be more willing to bet any non-ace river. If you hope to fold a Nine, then I think you are mistaken. Anyone who calls that turn raise will call the river. Not terrible though. Did it work?

[ggbman]

Is that this pot is huge and not many people would expect a semi bluff here into two people. So yes, i think i can fold a naked nine, i think there is even a chance i can fold red tens or jacks from time to time with a 4 straight and 3 flush on the board. Maybe i am off on this, but this isnt some 1-2 game, people so find folds sometimes.

[Brom]

In what sense are they "marginal postflop", weak-tight? I find that people who are loose preflop will also be loose in calling down. Not always though.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
Is that this pot is huge and not many people would expect a semi bluff here into two people. So yes, i think i can fold a naked nine, i think there is even a chance i can fold red tens or jacks from time to time with a 4 straight and 3 flush on the board. Maybe i am off on this, but this isnt some 1-2 game, people so find folds sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to assume that "marginal postflop" means that they pay some sort of attention as the hand progresses. You 3bet preflop, and got capped. What hand do you expect people to put you on when you pop the turn? A-Big of spades is the only sellable hand, and anybody w/ the A or K knows you can't have that, cuz they have one of your cards. They certainly aren't going to believe an 8, so the only way this has any chance is if nobody has the A or K of spades, nobody has an 8, and nobody has 2 pair. Furthermore, if these players have any history with you they'd know that you'd c/r 2 overs and flush draw on the flop 100% of the time, you didn't do that. The way you played this hand i'd put you on A-big with one spade. No other hand makes sense.

If you wanted this to work, I think you needed to set it up better on the flop, that or you and I have a very different idea of "marginal".

lf

[limon]

the reason being this play is so transparent on a draw board. you i and everybody else faces this a dozen times a day and goes into robo call down mode against all but the most passive foes. i win more money from habitual turn raisers than any other foe, i keep the stat front and center.

[DpR]

This is a 3BB bluff here. While I do think the board and situation is perfect for it (it appears you HAVE to have it) and it will definitely occasionally work, I do not think it will work enough.

That said, not betting this river would be so horrible. You spend 2 BB to buy bluff equity on the river, to not bet would make this entire hand absolutely terrible.

My gut says this is slightly -EV.

[elindauer]

hi ggbman,

Since you are going to call anyways, I like the raise. The pot is big, and who knows what's going to happen when you put in that raise on a 4-straight, 3-flush board in a protected pot. You certainly buy some fold equity, enough that the cost of the raise is probably worth it.

I hope it worked out for you.

-Eric

[ggbman]

I bet the river and he folded. As Mike would say, "Im dead, i have no outs, i'm a superstar!"

i've been up all night waiting for those results....

[DcifrThs]

this is not a 3bb bluff.

Barron

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
this is not a 3bb bluff.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify, the first BB is going in anyways as the pot is large and you have a draw that, while weak, is good enough. There isn't a river card that makes you want to cap it, but all spades, queens and kings make you happy you called the turn.

-eric

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
Literally any spade? Or maybe a weak pair + spade draw that we will fold UI?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah. I'm not sold on the turn plan, but I definitely think the river bet works often enough to be worthwhile, even though it fails very often.

[DpR]

I do understand that he has outs. Perhaps if I wrote Play = (3 bet bluff | Hero misses)

My point being that the 2 bets on the turn, in the mind of villian, serves as part of the bluff. IMO, the villian is far more likely to fold this river given that hero raised the turn. Perhaps thinking "there is no way this guy is putting in 3 BB with a hand 1 pair can beat."

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I do understand that he has outs. Perhaps if I wrote Play = (3 bet bluff | Hero misses)

My point being that the 2 bets on the turn, in the mind of villian, serves as part of the bluff. IMO, the villian is far more likely to fold this river given that hero raised the turn. Perhaps thinking "there is no way this guy is putting in 3 BB with a hand 1 pair can beat."

[/ QUOTE ]

yea...i was just clarifying...i still dont like the play b/c i dont think it works enough, and it looks like what it is...a bluff run.

and yes, if you use mathspeak, the Pr(barron understanding | mathspeak) &gt; Pr(barron understanding | the vagaries of the english language)

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

Barron