Downswings

How long do [censored] downswings usually last? Is it normal to be losing the vast majority of all ins when you're a favorite for a month or more at a time? 65/35 and 70/30 edges are meaningless to me. Because my stomach drops whenever I see that I'm favored like that. It's a sure loser.

Seriously, any notion of how long downswings can last would help me out. I'm on the verge of quitting the game because I don't know if I'm a good player anymore.

I know my sample size isn't big enough but I built my bankroll from $100 to $2000 through SNGs and last month's ITM% was 45%. I have finished ITM in 3 of my last 25 SNGs. Since I haven't changed my play, is this a cold run or do I need to question whether or not I should even play this game?

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
How long do [censored] downswings usually last? Is it normal to be losing the vast majority of all ins when you're a favorite for a month or more at a time? 65/35 and 70/30 edges are meaningless to me. Because my stomach drops whenever I see that I'm favored like that. It's a sure loser.

Seriously, any notion of how long downswings can last would help me out. I'm on the verge of quitting the game because I don't know if I'm a good player anymore.

I know my sample size isn't big enough but I built my bankroll from $100 to $2000 through SNGs and last month's ITM% was 45%. I have finished ITM in 3 of my last 25 SNGs. Since I haven't changed my play, is this a cold run or do I need to question whether or not I should even play this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is really tough to tell from this post weather you are a winning player or losing player. I win a fair amount of SNG's and get sucked out on plenty of times.

i just got burned with a similar post.
im down way more than you...your sample size is so small...just keep playing...variance is a bitch
and yes it can get worse
trust me i know how you feel

[Indiana]

If u play big pots with amateurs, you will have greater variance and greater downswings. Play good poker and get value out of your good hands but don't try to get more than they are worth.

Indy

[applejuicekid]

Come on guy, did you read the FAQ? Anyway most of your questions can be answered in this FAQ on variance. (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=&Number=2372560&page=0&vi ew=&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1#Post2372560)

[xGoreDudex]

I am new to Sit&G's in general, however I find that "bad beats" are just the cost of doing business and 25 sits is nothing, which I'm sure you know anyway, but just keep grinding..if I can beat these anybody can. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
If u play big pots with amateurs, you will have greater variance and greater downswings. Play good poker and get value out of your good hands but don't try to get more than they are worth.

Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll have much worse downswings against better players, as your edge is less.

[Shilly]

127 SNGs.

[RedBean]

[ QUOTE ]
How long do [censored] downswings usually last?
Is it normal to be losing the vast majority of all ins when you're a favorite for a month or more at a time? 65/35 and 70/30 edges are meaningless to me. Because my stomach drops whenever I see that I'm favored like that. It's a sure loser.

Seriously, any notion of how long downswings can last would help me out. I'm on the verge of quitting the game because I don't know if I'm a good player anymore.

I know my sample size isn't big enough but I built my bankroll from $100 to $2000 through SNGs and last month's ITM% was 45%. I have finished ITM in 3 of my last 25 SNGs. Since I haven't changed my play, is this a cold run or do I need to question whether or not I should even play this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't beat yourself up over a downswing that spans 25 games. It can and will get worse at times.

As for the seemingly endless losses with 70/30's you talk about, take solace in knowing you got in with the best of it, regardless of the results.

Also understand, that even while it may seem they are "sure losers" during your bad run, they a 70/30 is a 70/30 every time. In the long run, those payoff. Think marathon, not sprint.

You can't control variance, you can only hope to contain it. If you can't handle the variance at your current level, find one where you can.

[Shilly]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't control variance, you can only hope to contain it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's awesome.

[pergesu]

I started my downswing the day I started playing poker...and it seems to keep going. Hopefully some time soon I'll stop being variance's bitch.

[ace_in_the_hole]

[ QUOTE ]
127 SNGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please dont tell me this is you stating that you have had a 127 BI downswing.

[Bluff Daddy]

"You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is 'never try'."
Homer Simpson

my roll went from 450 to 10.60. you just have to keep on truckin.

[/ QUOTE ]


As for the seemingly endless losses with 70/30's you talk about, take solace in knowing you got in with the best of it, regardless of the results.

Also understand, that even while it may seem they are "sure losers" during your bad run, they a 70/30 is a 70/30 every time. In the long run, those payoff. Think marathon, not sprint.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good post. If you find yourself losing out on these 70/30 situations, the thing to remember is you made the correct play. You will find you will have a run where these always hold up eventually. I have just been through a mini run of of 5 underpairs making a set against me after they have moved all in, which aint nice but again its a case of the long run.

[tshort]

Does this answer your question?


Variance and Downswings

A small FAQ on variance. (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=&Number=2372560&page=0&vi ew=&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1#Post2372560) In short, variance is great, and stinks, all at the same time. Whatever your most recent downswing is, it’s very likely that another 2+2er has had worse. We commiserate, I promise. But we usually don’t want to hear about it.

To answer the other standard question: What is a really long out of the money streak for a winning player? The math is pretty easy to figure out what the chances of any given run are with a given ITM, but any random number in the teens is the standard stinky run number.

You have posted here 55 times, so I'm assuming you've read this.

[Edit]I read one of your first posts titled "Distributions" where you were flamed about sample size and reading the FAQ.

Do you have any evidence you're a winning poker player? That would be a pre-req to figuring out if it is variance or if you are a break-even/losing player.

[HesseJam]

I dunno,

during the las 100 tourneys I felt that I've won most of them when I didn't deserve to win (went in with the worst of it but sucked out at crucial points) and busted out a lot of times when I thought I deserved to win. At Party I played a very tight aggresssive game and variance was a lot higher than at Stars where I play a more active (also a tad looser)/ aggressive game.

So far, variance at Party was way higher than at Stars. OTH, I have only 400 SnGs at each sites. So I probably cannot deduct anything from this.

[4ever]

Used SNG's on Pokerroom to build $20 into $490 over about 3 months of playing durring free time. Lost in all in two days because of variance. Its actually kind of comforting to read about someone else going through it.

[AbelM]

Human brains are [censored] up and can't deal with stuff like variance. That's why it is so important to keep track of your results.

If you don't you're brain will tell you that the best you ever ran (in your case last month where you had ITM of 45%) is how you would run normally and everything else is running bad.

There is a solution though: don't be results oriented and just try to play your best. This has been said many many times before but for some reason only a few can do it. If you can you will be a big champion, regardless of what limit you play /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post...

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell is going on around here? I take off a couple of days from the STT forum to come back and find this. It sure is getting soft around here. Is the reverse "lunatiC" on vacation?

Anyway, 25 OOTM is nothing, sample size, you got your chips in with the best of it, bad beat, read the FAQ, keep playing good poker, take a day off, review hand histories, all of the cliche's apply here.

[Bluff Daddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Used SNG's on Pokerroom to build $20 into $490 over about 3 months of playing durring free time. Lost in all in two days because of variance. Its actually kind of comforting to read about someone else going through it.

[/ QUOTE ]

you were playing to high for your bankroll or just really suck

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
I have finished ITM in 3 of my last 25 SNGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.

[Hornacek]

I recommend moving up buyins after every loss. Double down, baby! Martingale system WORKS.

[se2schul]

Doesn't anyone on this forum lose due to bad play??

It seems that everyone here assumes they are a good player when they're winning, yet any sort of downswing is attributed variance and not poor play. Seems kinda suspect to me...

I realized before I even got here that there will always be other people who have experienced worse. That does not, however, answer my question about how long downswings can last.

If you read my post carefully, you'll see that I'm not looking for sympathy. Hell, I know this is the last place on earth to look for sympathy. Even the players who beat me would have more sympathy.

I am here looking for advice and a few answers, as well as a few words of encouragement (which I was happy to see. Thanks to those who took the time there. MUCH appreciated.).

My previous post where I posted my sample size was another case of looking for answers. I didn't show up here with a chip on my shoulder or even the vaguest idea that I was enlightened.

I came as a student.

Thanks for your thoughts as well. I appreciate them all.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have finished ITM in 3 of my last 25 SNGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not looking for sympathy. Just wondering if this is an indication of one of those bad runs I hear about. I'm just trying to learn because, unlike everyone here, I wasn't born knowing this stuff.

Thanks for your contribution to the thread.

[inyaface]

I'm currenty on a 25 buyin downswing including a number of 6-12 OOTM streaks. This is not at all out of the ordinary. In fact people would bitch me out for complaining about my streak. The point nobody can really tell you how long a bad steak lasts. If it means anything I'm pretty sure there are people that are consistant winners that have had 500 sng steaks where they lose money. Honastly what your talking about here is notthing.

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't anyone on this forum lose due to bad play??

It seems that everyone here assumes they are a good player when they're winning, yet any sort of downswing is attributed variance and not poor play. Seems kinda suspect to me...

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm trying to figure out. Am I playing poorly or is this just a bad run? Maybe it is a bad run amplified by poor play.

Those are the things I'm hoping to figure out with the help of the constructive posters on this forum. Especially the guy who said, 'Awwwww' because that helped me learn.

[tigerite]

My downswing at the $33s got extremely close to 40 buy-ins. I'm afraid it's the nature of the beast, but as Irie pointed out, it can cause winning players to quit. It really is demoralising.

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]
That's what I'm trying to figure out. Am I playing poorly or is this just a bad run? Maybe it is a bad run amplified by poor play.

Those are the things I'm hoping to figure out with the help of the constructive posters on this forum. Especially the guy who said, 'Awwwww' because that helped me learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The best thing you could do is find a solid player to look over 4 or 5 of your HHs from a normal game and see if he can spot any obvious leaks.

[inyaface]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't anyone on this forum lose due to bad play??

It seems that everyone here assumes they are a good player when they're winning, yet any sort of downswing is attributed variance and not poor play. Seems kinda suspect to me...

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm trying to figure out. Am I playing poorly or is this just a bad run? Maybe it is a bad run amplified by poor play.

Those are the things I'm hoping to figure out with the help of the constructive posters on this forum. Especially the guy who said, 'Awwwww' because that helped me learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

HOW THE HELL ARE PEOPLE SUPPOSED TO KNOW IF YOUR PLAYING WELL OR NOT. You gave a nothing sample size with no information about any of the hands you lost on. Could it be bad play yes, could it be variance, yes, could it be a combo, yes. But give more information before you get made at people for saying "awwww" when your question could be answered by looking at the FAQ

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't anyone on this forum lose due to bad play??

It seems that everyone here assumes they are a good player when they're winning, yet any sort of downswing is attributed variance and not poor play. Seems kinda suspect to me...

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm trying to figure out. Am I playing poorly or is this just a bad run? Maybe it is a bad run amplified by poor play.

Those are the things I'm hoping to figure out with the help of the constructive posters on this forum. Especially the guy who said, 'Awwwww' because that helped me learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

HOW THE HELL ARE PEOPLE SUPPOSED TO KNOW IF YOUR PLAYING WELL OR NOT. You gave a nothing sample size with no information about any of the hands you lost on. Could it be bad play yes, could it be variance, yes, could it be a combo, yes. But give more information before you get made at people for saying "awwww" when your question could be answered by looking at the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

tyvm.
Ill count all the " I had 19289239239 roi at first and now im losing" threads this month.

everyone who has played a lot of SNGs knows that 127 is the magic number for length of a downswing--- which doesn't mean # of buyins dropped.

i, unfortunately, happened to have 4 downswings right in a row last month.

[raptor517]

threads like this should be immediately locked. read the faq. search for other threads on downswings. mods, dont let this forum get cluttered with crap. holla

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't anyone on this forum lose due to bad play??

It seems that everyone here assumes they are a good player when they're winning, yet any sort of downswing is attributed variance and not poor play. Seems kinda suspect to me...

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm trying to figure out. Am I playing poorly or is this just a bad run? Maybe it is a bad run amplified by poor play.

Those are the things I'm hoping to figure out with the help of the constructive posters on this forum. Especially the guy who said, 'Awwwww' because that helped me learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

HOW THE HELL ARE PEOPLE SUPPOSED TO KNOW IF YOUR PLAYING WELL OR NOT. You gave a nothing sample size with no information about any of the hands you lost on. Could it be bad play yes, could it be variance, yes, could it be a combo, yes. But give more information before you get made at people for saying "awwww" when your question could be answered by looking at the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think you're overreacting to my post. It seems like posts like these are fresh meat to ravaged lions. Too many of you guys just LOVE to jump on these and trash talk.

I KNOW the sample is small. I've already pointed that out.

If you bothered to read anything I've posted instead of just jumping at every chance to trash talk people you'd see that I'm only looking for general ideas as to what kind of downswings are possible or what kinds of downswings you guys have had.

I'm not looking for people to give me the secret poker playbook. I'm trying to piece it together for myself and asking a simple question like this, in conjunction with a straightforward and constructive respose, would help me a great deal.

Since you're obviously neither interested in nor capable providing a post like that, feel free to stop reading.

Thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't anyone on this forum lose due to bad play??

It seems that everyone here assumes they are a good player when they're winning, yet any sort of downswing is attributed variance and not poor play. Seems kinda suspect to me...

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm trying to figure out. Am I playing poorly or is this just a bad run? Maybe it is a bad run amplified by poor play.

Those are the things I'm hoping to figure out with the help of the constructive posters on this forum. Especially the guy who said, 'Awwwww' because that helped me learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

HOW THE HELL ARE PEOPLE SUPPOSED TO KNOW IF YOUR PLAYING WELL OR NOT. You gave a nothing sample size with no information about any of the hands you lost on. Could it be bad play yes, could it be variance, yes, could it be a combo, yes. But give more information before you get made at people for saying "awwww" when your question could be answered by looking at the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

tyvm.
Ill count all the " I had 19289239239 roi at first and now im losing" threads this month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, seriously, if that's what you think this is, I'm surprised you've lived as long as you have. You're an idiot.

[ QUOTE ]
My downswing at the $33s got extremely close to 40 buy-ins. I'm afraid it's the nature of the beast, but as Irie pointed out, it can cause winning players to quit. It really is demoralising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you, tiger. This is EXACTLY the kind of post I needed. I appreciate it and I look forward to playing solid poker and hopefully breaking out soon.

[Hornacek]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My downswing at the $33s got extremely close to 40 buy-ins. I'm afraid it's the nature of the beast, but as Irie pointed out, it can cause winning players to quit. It really is demoralising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you, tiger. This is EXACTLY the kind of post I needed. I appreciate it and I look forward to playing solid poker and hopefully breaking out soon.

[/ QUOTE ]good luck? variance happens to all of us; shake it off, don't shake your head.

[inyaface]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't anyone on this forum lose due to bad play??

It seems that everyone here assumes they are a good player when they're winning, yet any sort of downswing is attributed variance and not poor play. Seems kinda suspect to me...

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm trying to figure out. Am I playing poorly or is this just a bad run? Maybe it is a bad run amplified by poor play.

Those are the things I'm hoping to figure out with the help of the constructive posters on this forum. Especially the guy who said, 'Awwwww' because that helped me learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

HOW THE HELL ARE PEOPLE SUPPOSED TO KNOW IF YOUR PLAYING WELL OR NOT. You gave a nothing sample size with no information about any of the hands you lost on. Could it be bad play yes, could it be variance, yes, could it be a combo, yes. But give more information before you get made at people for saying "awwww" when your question could be answered by looking at the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think you're overreacting to my post. It seems like posts like these are fresh meat to ravaged lions. Too many of you guys just LOVE to jump on these and trash talk.

I KNOW the sample is small. I've already pointed that out.

If you bothered to read anything I've posted instead of just jumping at every chance to trash talk people you'd see that I'm only looking for general ideas as to what kind of downswings are possible or what kinds of downswings you guys have had.

I'm not looking for people to give me the secret poker playbook. I'm trying to piece it together for myself and asking a simple question like this, in conjunction with a straightforward and constructive respose, would help me a great deal.

Since you're obviously neither interested in nor capable providing a post like that, feel free to stop reading.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]
Since you obviously didn't read my post the first time...

I'm currenty on a 27 buyin downswing including a number of 6-12 OOTM streaks. This is not at all out of the ordinary. In fact people would bitch me out for complaining about my streak. The point nobody can really tell you how long a bad steak lasts. If it means anything I'm pretty sure there are people that are consistant winners that have had 500 sng steaks where they lose money. Honastly what your talking about here is notthing.

Also the fact that you responded by say "thanks I'm going to play good poker and win now" shows you really don't care about improving you game or finding out if your actually playing bad. Post some hands, go over HH's but don't come on here asking people to tell you your [censored] don't stink and then get made at you when they don't have the time or the care to smell it

Edit: All that being said I am angry becuase I've lost a lot of money latley and I might be a bit to harsh. Just for future referance don't make these posts please.

[valenzuela]

I also would like to point out this is a free forum so plz stop whining becuase I didnt post my biggest downswing.