Hand quiz: Tough JJ overpair hand four-way [Archive]

View Full Version : Hand quiz: Tough JJ overpair hand four-way

11-03-2005, 07:19 PM

Is tough JJ hand redundant?

I thought this was an interesting away-from-the-table analysis problem that would help everyone make a better decision in this marginal situation.

CO is 54/19/1.7 and does not 3-bet lightly; other two are VPIP > 30-40, fairly passive.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero caps, CO calls, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Button 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls, CO caps, Button calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (15.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $1.25 (All-In), Button raises, BB calls, Hero?

What is your line here and why?

11-03-2005, 08:11 PM

Oops, I those stats are for the button, not the CO. Button is a LAG, but doesn't 3-bet lightly. CO is loose-passive.

11-04-2005, 04:03 PM

Shameless bump. C'mon, 80 views and no answers?

GutPunch

11-04-2005, 04:11 PM

Pot size is too big for me to fold, I am also closing the action so I wont be raised again.

is that a leaK?

MAxx

11-04-2005, 04:12 PM

i'd fold on the turn.

11-04-2005, 04:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i'd fold on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

me too. You have a loose passive capping the flop, and the Button who doesn't 3-bet lightly, and an ace on the turn. This does not look good for JJ.

You are getting like 20:2 on the turn and I think you are behind close to 100% of the time... fold it and move on.

11-04-2005, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pot size is too big for me to fold, I am also closing the action so I wont be raised again.

is that a leaK?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it's a leak. I wanted to post an example where folding in a big pot is correct.

Once the A hits, you are behind to the vast majority of holdings here. You probably need another J to win, and even then you can lose to the straight, so even in this big pot, even though you are closing the action, you need to fold.

I guess I'm the only one who found this interesting. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Ed Miller likes to say folding for one bet in a large pot is wrong, but a lot of people don't notice that he always talks about pot size. He doesn't advocate blindly calling in large pots. This is a case where the pot size is not quite large enough to call. You probably need it to be around 23-24 BB.

brazilio

11-04-2005, 06:09 PM

Fold turn

mperich

11-04-2005, 06:15 PM

I really dont see this situation as marginal. Its about as clear cut as they come. Folding the turn is the only way to play this hand.

-Mike

11-04-2005, 06:37 PM

Marginal != fuzzy. I mean it is right on the border between call and fold, but it is a clear fold if you are not seduced by the size of the pot.

Monty Cantsin

11-04-2005, 10:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
it is right on the border between call and fold, but it is a clear fold if you are not seduced by the size of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? What does this even mean? How else would you decide whether to fold than by looking at the size of the pot?

Seems like we're getting approx. 18:1 and our odds of spiking a J are 22:1. Even if we always earn another 2 BB on the river when we hit then we don't have sufficient odds. Add in the fact that we might already be up against a set of Aces and the fact that we're not closing the action and it gets worse.

But what else would you go by other than pot size?

/mc

11-04-2005, 10:17 PM

I simply meant that you should always go by your equity, which means you should fold decent hands in large pots for one bet sometimes.

Seduced is a bad word. Sorry for the confusion.

I know this is obvious to some of you experts, but I think this is an important point for newer players that are just coming to grips with playing aggressively in large pots. Plus, I wanted to post a hand that wouldn't be pages of read-dependent wish wash.

adamstewart

11-04-2005, 10:20 PM

There's no decision to be made here:

check/fold the turn.

Adam

Monty Cantsin

11-05-2005, 01:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I know this is obvious to some of you experts...

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh. The funny thing is that it took me like 20 minutes of furious scribbling to come up with those numbers. I am so incredibly calcu-lazy, this stuff is far from obvious to me. Also, it doesn't help that there's that weird half-bet in there from the all-in guy. STACK MANAGEMENT!

Anyway, I agree that the rule of thumb "call in big pots" can be misleading. It's much easier to remember (and do) then "calculate the EV for calling and folding and choose the one that's higher." But that's what we should be trying to drill into our heads. Nice post, good discussion.

/mc

11-05-2005, 02:36 AM

Thank you. /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Alex/Mugaaz

11-05-2005, 03:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold turn

[/ QUOTE ]