10-20, diamonds are a woman's best friend.

[Duke]

And I ain't a woman.

4 or 5 limpers, I'm in the sb with black aces, and I raise. Everybody who could call did call.

Flop comes something like Q95 with 2 diamonds. I bet, and am called in a few places. The turn card brings the 8 of diamonds, and I bet again, it's folded around to an old man who hasn't done anything of note yet, who raises. I muck, and show the hand.

What does the old man show? (Yeah, he shows his hand too).

Yeah, I know, don't show hands.

~D

[Barry]

Let's see...

How about red A's?

[Softrock]

The tone of your post suggests he had the red aces but why would he just limp with callers before him?

[andyfox]

7d6d?

But so what?

[Duke]

It was red AA, and I was wondering how big my error was, or what others would do in this situation against an unknown opponent?

I put him on 6d7d, mucked face up for the benefit of a buddy of mine in the game whose input I respect in those situations, and didn't really feel bad about the fold. When I saw his hand, I started thinking about whether or not I made an error. Every time you do something differently than you would have done if you saw his cards, you lose money, right?

I'm leaning towards it not being an error, as I could at best tie, and I can't rule out the possibility that a turn raise on a scary board is a made hand, and not a draw.

Sorry for wording it like a bad beat story.

~D

[RollaJ]

You wouldnt have called if you knew his hand????...Better read the rest of the book you quoting /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[Duke]

But I can't know his cards, and I have to give the possibility that one of the 50 million draws that got there could be what he was on.

There's 200 in the pot (or so, I think I'm being generous) when I put my $20 turn bet in. I get raised. Now I'm paying $40 more dollars to win, in this situation, $160, or a $120 profit. Now, I'll lose it 1/4 of the time to the flush, so 1/4 of the time I just lose my $40, and 3/4 of the time I chop it up, for $120. so, -10, +80, is +70. Yeah, you're right.

But I cannot know that. The player did not get out of line at all in any of the hands I had seen him play. He wasn't even calling unless he had a made hand before that. What card did I want to see on the river? Have the bottom card on board pair? Will that make me like my hand at all? Do I want to throw in 2 crying calls thinking that I'm drawing dead?

I guess I got outplayed on the hand, and I guess I made an error. And it wasn't a bad beat. I didn't get unlucky. I got outplayed.

~D