Raising 10's - people seem nervous about it

i've noticed that alot of people don't raise 10's pre-flop or feel comfortable about it and frankly i'm the same, although i realize that every major book says to do it (and we could argue J's or 9's, nothing too special about 10's. i think though that QQ, KK, AA are "no-brainer" raises for most)

so if you have a pair of 10's, there are 4 cards that can beat you (A, K, Q, J). but here's what i don't understand.. for each card on flop, do my opponents have 12 outs or 16 outs? i mean, i assume that my opponent has to have the card but then i don't know which one.

so assuming, they have 12 outs and 3 cards, that's 36 outs by simple method. although i did the math properly and there's 56.5% chance that a danger card hits and could be paired. but with 3 callers (hypothetically), i wouldn't give full weight to the Queen or Jack, cause less likely to play Q high or J high and if it was Q low or J low then they might have raised.

so changing the opponent outs to 9 (3 for ace, king, 1.5 for Q, J) means it's 45% that opponents hit pair a higher card. although 12.5% chance that you hit a 3rd 10 (but i don't think you can subtract 12.5% from 45%)... if i subtract the two odds per card, then it's 37% chance they hit.

once the flop comes with little danger you're in fantastic shape. A or K on flop (without 10) and you're dead. JQ i guess takes call, but decent chance you're ok.

ok, the odds make me feel much better about raising 10's. with 2 other callers, it's 2 to 1 (33%), with three other callers, it's 3 to 1 (25%). and it looks like 50% to 65% chance that i'm leading after flop. those are good odds.

one of the real keys is discounting the chance that Q or J have you beaten when they fall.

is my math analysis anywhere close? and am i right to use 3 outs for the Aces as the opponent has to have an ace in his pocket before the flop.

obviously i disregarded very complex flops i.e. 2 pairs etc.

[AaronBrown]

AA, KK and QQ are not no brainer raises, at least some of the time you should slowplay them. It's true you don't want to give people opportunities to draw to straights and flushes, but you love to be in the pot against lower pairs, or unpaired high cards. You make the most money against high pairs lower than yours, you'd much rather have them raising you than vice versa.

You raise with TT because you're not happy letting almost anyone draw against you. Straights and flushes can hurt you, but so can hands as bad as QJ. The only hands that would limp into the pot that you want to stay in are lower pairs.

Of course, you don't raise all the time in all situations, but with TT you usually want people to pay for their cards. You probably have the best hand going in, but there's an excellent chance the flop make either you or the other player fold.

I agree with Aaron. I want weak chasers and potential suck-outs out of my way. By playing TT strong, I find, hands that beat me frequently let me know with re-raises. Naturally the slow-playin' AA, etc., won't but that's part of gambling.

Getting a 9-handed game down to 4 or less works best for me. And agression not only builds the pot, it usually gets me involved with players I have a better chance of reading.

i think the major reason people dont raise PF with 88,99 amd 10-10 is that they dont know how to play the flop when an overcard hits.

[Ace-Ex]

I'm not sure if the original poster was referring to NL or Limit, but in either case you should definitely be raising with 10s. Remember in Limit you aren't trying to beat a single player in which you would need a 50% or better edge to make it profitable, you're usually playing at least 3 or 4 other players. Also there is a very good chance that any flop would miss your opponents completely even if a J Q or K came. (Ace is a lot more likely to hit an opponent if you are playing several loose players.) After the flop you have to evaluate your hand based on board coordination and the betting you are seeing. There aren't very many flops that will scare you away for a single bet with a high pair, so figure you're going to get to see at least 4 cards to see if you can make a set. If you can effectively protect your hand you might even be able to isolate yourself against a flush draw or something like that so overcards won't have a good chance of beating you.

I just posted a hand that involved pocket 9s in a no-limit hand that proved very difficult. NL is a different story and the medium pairs are very difficult to play in that game. I think I didn't raise enough pre-flop to knock out weak drawing hands.

[Rootabager]

10's are a mitt and a half. I jump out of my seat when I get 10's hitting raise as fast as I can.

Aaron, as always, is correct. To the comment about what to do when overcards hit, well, if you were the raiser coming in, you bet, if it's checked to you, you bet, you have to find out where you are in the hand and often betting will win you the hand outright. If your opponent bets on a flop with overcards, then you need to determine how likely it is that the opponent has the overcard in question. Would he have called your pre-flop raise with a K-J or A-J if a jack falls? In my experience, when you raise pre-flop with tens and reduce the field, betting the flop wins the hand for you, unless the guy does have the overcard or was smooth-called with aces or kings (which I've seen a lot of lately and don't understand why guys do that at a full table).
Absolute truth, right after posting this I am dealt pocket tens, I raised pre-flop, one caller (typical blind defender), flop comes J65 rainbow, he checks, I bet, he folds. What are the odds of that happening?

Also, a lot of the time in live games people complain about their "hooks" (jacks) being garbage and never winning. These are bad players who dont know how to play this excellent hand.

[Artsemis]

It's all about equity and raising your natural advantage. You're right in the sense that they will get beat alot, but the one single pot you win will make up for a couple losses.

thanks for the responses guys!!!! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

i was trying to do my harrington/yao math but i think it somehow got away from me.

i just meant there are 4 potential danger cards but just because one hit doesn't mean you are beat. and was trying to suggest that A/K hitting is much worse than J/Q and you have a small chance of 10 hitting too.

the other math thing i was trying to convey is that for Ace to be scary on flop, you have to assume that someone else has the card (so that's 9 outs not 12 outs for your opponent pre-flop????)

i was originally trying to help a guy who said he was consistently losing even though he was playing only sklansky first 5 hand groups. can't remember them but i told the guy to watch position (he knew nothing about)... and i told him to raise more pre-flop when he plays. but i just find people are very reticent to raise TT pre-flop as i am (they want to see the flop, which is so fishy - you are in lead or hit the 3rd 10, maybe no one plays with you)

would you guys raise 88 alot in late position with alot of callers. i guess you would as you have 30% chance (use your own # if you want) of being in lead with pair and 8% of hitting trips.

again, thanks for the responses!!!

[lozen]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the major reason people dont raise PF with 88,99 amd 10-10 is that they dont know how to play the flop when an overcard hits.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well how about giving him some insight on how to play them?

I think the major mistake is not knowing when to let them go and position play with them. I find myself letting them go when an ace hiys and a bunch in. Also I have note on what players call my raises and with what. If I am heads up against one apponent and he is behind with a scary flop I check and if he bets Chk raise him. One strategy that has worked well. If He 3 bets me im gone

There was a discussion in HUSH about raising 88 after a lot of callers and it was widely agreed upon that this is not a good thing to do. Your equity isnt strong enough to do this there.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
If I am heads up against one apponent and he is behind with a scary flop I check and if he bets Chk raise him. One strategy that has worked well. If He 3 bets me im gone

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless your opponent bets too much when checked to HU, this is terrible.

Reason 1: Your opponents are usually more likely to bet if they actually have something.

Reason 2: The flop is Ad 5d 6s (you don't have the Td). You check and your opponent checks behind. Turn is the Qd. Your opponent with QJ no diamond, or Kd Jc now has a reason to play back at you when he wouldn't have called a flop bet.