kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop [Archive]

creedofhubris

11-03-2005, 05:04 PM

$5/$10 NL, villain has $550, I have him covered.

Villain is very loose preflop, raises a lot of trash, calls a lot of raises and reraises, gives action postflop. He's also eager to play me since I got most of his stack five minutes before by calling a monster turn raise with just a weak flush draw, which came in.

Villain makes it $30 from MP (standard with any 2), I make it $100 from CO with black KK, everyone else gets out of the way, he calls.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Pot is $200. Villain ($450) checks. Your move, and plan for the rest of the hand?

Rocaix

11-03-2005, 05:06 PM

Pot it, get all-in on the flop. I'd even consider, pushing when checked to.

FoxwoodsFiend

11-03-2005, 05:08 PM

If this is a leak, it's a very small one-I don't get away from overpairs against shortstacks. bet the flop for about 200, call any all in, fold if he bets out when a heart comes. you can't be worried about the flush, and if he has the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif it's a coinflip, but you I'd rather coinflip for another 450 then lose the pot if a heart comes after i've checked behind.

xorbie

11-03-2005, 06:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pot it, get all-in on the flop. I'd even consider, pushing when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Worst advice ever.

Any random /images/graemlins/heart.gif with any random pair is a favorite right now.

Jason Strasser

11-03-2005, 07:01 PM

Keep the pot small, check the flop. On the turn keep your options open. If he's viable to lead with a draw or combo draw with a pair, then you may want to raise a turn bet with the plan of checking the river. Just one option tho.

-Jason

oops did not see stack sizes. Check and evaluate turn.

xorbie

11-03-2005, 07:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
$5/$10 NL, villain has $550, I have him covered.

Villain is very loose preflop, raises a lot of trash, calls a lot of raises and reraises, gives action postflop. He's also eager to play me since I got most of his stack five minutes before by calling a monster turn raise with just a weak flush draw, which came in.

Villain makes it $30 from MP (standard with any 2), I make it $100 from CO with black KK, everyone else gets out of the way, he calls.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Pot is $200. Villain ($450) checks. Your move, and plan for the rest of the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Look.. this flop sucks. It sucks hard. You're a favorite against A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK or A/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ and that's about it (and even that is a coinflip), so if any money goes in here with villain calling you're either a huge dog or a slight dog.

tdarko

11-03-2005, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pot it, get all-in on the flop. I'd even consider, pushing when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]
huh? you can't be serious?

tewall

11-03-2005, 07:38 PM

From the way you've described the fellow, you must expect to be ahead of him. Plus the stacks are small. So I can't see how you can get away from being committed to all-in in this situation. Just because the flop sucks is no reason to assume it's hit him.

I think you need to assume you're ahead, which is very likely true (unless he's the type of player who would autobet unless he had something good to c/r with). You have to bet to protect your hand. A standard bet, like 150, is enough to keep him from calling correctly with nothing but a flush draw, so that seems fine. If he comes over the top, call without hesitation as your getting 4 to 1 for your call.

xorbie

11-03-2005, 07:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]

From the way you've described the fellow, you must expect to be ahead of him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gif is only like a 60/40 dog here. There is no reason wathsoever to expect to be ahead. If hero had K/images/graemlins/heart.gif I would be all over this too. But really, this is the worst ever flop.

tewall

11-03-2005, 08:10 PM

I disagree that this is a bad flop. The chance of hero being behind is very small, given the range of hands villain will play. It's probably better than 4 to 1 that hero is ahead. If an Ace had flopped, that would be a bad flop, but this is a good flop. It's a flop where hero is likely to get action from a hand who he is favored against, as there are all sort of draws out there. Hero wants action, so he should bet. There's a good chance villian will go over the top with a draw, so give him the chance to do so.

xorbie

11-03-2005, 08:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree that this is a bad flop. The chance of hero being behind is very small, given the range of hands villain will play. It's probably better than 4 to 1 that hero is ahead. If an Ace had flopped, that would be a bad flop, but this is a good flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, enough of this bullshit. Please give me a hand range for villain, then a hand range for villain calling a bet, then run it through pokerstove. Try 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif8 first.

flawless_victory

11-03-2005, 08:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree that this is a bad flop. The chance of hero being behind is very small, given the range of hands villain will play. It's probably better than 4 to 1 that hero is ahead. If an Ace had flopped, that would be a bad flop, but this is a good flop. It's a flop where hero is likely to get action from a hand who he is favored against, as there are all sort of draws out there. Hero wants action, so he should bet. There's a good chance villian will go over the top with a draw, so give him the chance to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]
give me a break... this a good flop?
LLLLOOOOLLLL. you cannot be this stupid.

yo creed/ check it.

HoldEmKillah

11-03-2005, 08:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Any random /images/graemlins/heart.gif with any random pair is a favorite right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never even realized this. Man. I better go read some books or somethin'.

Fnord

11-03-2005, 08:34 PM

This is out of my league, but as a small stakes NLHE and LHE player, must I point out the pot size relative to the money behind? Just about any bet ties us to the pot. Even if we're a 60/40ish dog it's not that big of a mistake. The variance sucks, but that's the price for playing against these ATM machines.

Checking behind sucks because he probably doesn't have a heart and one is slightly more likely to turn if he doesn't have it.

There is a lot of money out there, you probably have the best hand and he will often have no heart.

Push.

xorbie

11-03-2005, 08:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is out of my league, but as a small stakes NLHE and LHE player, must I point out the pot size relative to the money behind? Just about any bet ties us to the pot. Even if we're a 60/40ish dog it's not that big of a mistake. The variance sucks, but that's the price for playing against these ATM machines.

Checking behind sucks because he probably doesn't have a heart and one is slightly more likely to turn if he doesn't have it.

Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Push is terrible. I'd much rather check and let him bluff the turn if I want to get it all in here.

Fnord

11-03-2005, 08:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Push is terrible. I'd much rather check and let him bluff the turn if I want to get it all in here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we in a spot to call a bluff? There are a lot of non-heart hands he could have and improve with that he might fold to a push. If a heart hits would you consider calling?

When the pot is big I want to maximize my chances of winning it.

If he wants action, he's going to get unlimited action from my KK if over 18% of his stack goes in pre-flop.

flawless_victory

11-03-2005, 08:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Any random /images/graemlins/heart.gif with any random pair is a favorite right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never even realized this. Man. I better go read some books or somethin'.

[/ QUOTE ]
holyshit. glad you run good homie. wow.

Rococo

11-03-2005, 09:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Ok, enough of this bullshit. Please give me a hand range for villain, then a hand range for villain calling a bet, then run it through pokerstove. Try 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif8 first.

[/ QUOTE ]

You obviously are correct Xorbie, but I do have one quibble. Villain can't put Hero on a black overpair. Put another way, Villain doesn't know that Hero doesn't have a better heart. I wouldn't be anxious to get it all in here with 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. Would you?

fuego527

11-03-2005, 09:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ok, enough of this bullshit. Please give me a hand range for villain, then a hand range for villain calling a bet, then run it through pokerstove. Try 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif8 first.

[/ QUOTE ]

You obviously are correct Xorbie, but I do have one quibble. Villain can't put Hero on a black overpair. Put another way, Villain doesn't know that Hero doesn't have a better heart. I wouldn't be anxious to get it all in here with 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. Would you?

[/ QUOTE ]

To me, that's the point. Even a hand as bad as 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif has you. Are there a lot of these marginal hands that are slightly ahead that will fold to a push? Of course there are. But now imagine the hands that will call you, and how likely they are given a player who raises marginal holdings (many of which hit this flop hard, this player-type loves s00ted cards) and calls RRs with them.

[ QUOTE ]

Are we in a spot to call a bluff? There are a lot of non-heart hands he could have and improve with that he might fold to a push. If a heart hits would you consider calling?

When the pot is big I want to maximize my chances of winning it.

If he wants action, he's going to get unlimited action from my KK if over 18% of his stack goes in pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This pot isn't that big, and thats just an awful theory anyways. And I believe the point of the check flop, call turn comment was just comparing that line to the flop push, not really suggesting it as optimal play.

xorbie

11-03-2005, 09:18 PM

Garland

11-03-2005, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He's also eager to play me since I got most of his stack five minutes before by calling a monster turn raise with just a weak flush draw, which came in

[/ QUOTE ]

May I ask why?

Garland

flawless_victory

11-03-2005, 09:26 PM

Fnord

11-03-2005, 09:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If hero pushes, I think villain calls with a lot of pair + /images/graemlins/heart.gif, a lot of 9 + pair, obviously all flushes, obviously all sets/two pair. So really the only thing we beat is if this guy calls with AJ no /images/graemlins/heart.gif or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, we're in rough shape if we get called. But there is 20bb in the pot that we just can't write off with only 45bb behind because the flop looks pretty disgusting. What % of the time do you think we get a call? What % of the time are we called and still win showdown?

creedofhubris

11-03-2005, 10:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's also eager to play me since I got most of his stack five minutes before by calling a monster turn raise with just a weak flush draw, which came in

[/ QUOTE ]

May I ask why?

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

From the way he played it, I knew he had a set and therefore would pay off for an allin if I hit my running draw.

I did the calculations afterwards and it turned out to be very close to 0 EV. So not my best play.

The real answer is I was stuck for the day and needed a big score ;-)

xorbie

11-03-2005, 11:07 PM

I'm not writing off the pot. I just don't see any point in getting all in now. Check behind.

creedofhubris

11-04-2005, 12:19 AM

I decided that if I got a lot of money in on the flop, that money would not be going in with a big edge, and I would get a bigger edge if I waited until a turn no-heart. So I checked. I figured I wanted a small pot if the heart came and maybe could check call or something. If I got a blank, I planned to ship it allin.

The turn was not the blankest of blanks. 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, making the board

J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villain led for 1/2 pot, $100, which I interpreted as some sort of weak pair hand.

So I pushed.

TheWorstPlayer

11-04-2005, 12:33 AM

I like how you played this hand. Betting flop doesn't make sense to me, folding turn is weak, no point in flat calling turn, only option left is check flop, push turn. Nice hand.

xorbie

11-04-2005, 12:38 AM

I'm pretty sure this is exactly how I would have played it. Not sure if that's a good thing or not.

tdarko

11-04-2005, 12:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure this is exactly how I would have played it. Not sure if that's a good thing or not.

[/ QUOTE ]
oh well if you get stacked reload and lick your lips for some more of his action /images/graemlins/smirk.gif.

Ed S.

11-04-2005, 02:01 AM

What if he didn't check the flop and he threw out some kind of bet, what do you do now? Call, raise or fold?

Just wondering if you considered that and if you did what you were thinking?

Ed S.

tewall

11-04-2005, 10:54 AM

I didn't advocate pushing. If you disagree with my logic, present an argument as to why, and please argue against what I'm actually suggesting. When you wrote "push", I assume this means an all-in bet, which is NOT what I'm suggesting.

Here's what I'm assuming:
1)Villain could have anything
2)Villain is pissed, so he's looking for an excuse to mix it up
3)Villian is much more likely to have one heart than two.

I had to look around to see what your suggested line was. You say to check behind, but I don't know for what purpose. If a heart comes, and villain bets, do you plan to fold? I'm assuming this is what you have in mind. If not, tell me what your plan is, and we'll compare your plan with mine. If a non-heart comes on the turn, and Villain bets, what's the plan? It's hard to compare your plan with mine, since you don't say what your plan is, other than checking the flop.

My plan is to bet around 150 to protect my hand on flop, and hope the pissed off villain comes over the top with a hand against which I'm the favorite. I think, given the circumstances, this is quite likely to happen. If he folds, that's fine too.

If your plan is to check and fold if a heart comes on the turn, then your line is better than mine if a heart comes on the turn and Villain actually had a heart. It's also better than mine if Villain has two hearts and flopped a flush. If Villain doesn't have a heart, or if he has one heart and a heart doesn't come on the turn, then my line is better.

tewall

11-04-2005, 10:58 AM

You need to take more things in consideration when the flop comes than, "Oh no, that looks scary!". It's true that there are some made hands that could have you crushed, but the chances of Villain having a drawing hand against which you are a favorite are much greater than his having a hand that has you beat. A good flop is a flop where you get action when you are ahead. That's likely to be the case here.

djoyce003

11-04-2005, 11:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]

My plan is to bet around 150 to protect my hand on flop, and hope the pissed off villain comes over the top with a hand against which I'm the favorite. I think, given the circumstances, this is quite likely to happen. If he folds, that's fine too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man you sure don't listen well.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1321850
pokenum -h kc ks - 2h 8c -- jh th 8h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jh Th 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 488 49.29 457 46.16 45 4.55 0.516
8c 2h 457 46.16 488 49.29 45 4.55 0.484

as you can see if he has ANY pair+flush draw it's a coinflip

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1321851
pokenum -h kc ks - ah 8c -- jh th 8h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jh Th 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 476 48.08 503 50.81 11 1.11 0.486
8c Ah 503 50.81 476 48.08 11 1.11 0.514

If he holds the Ace of hearts you are a slight dog but still basically a coinflip

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1321854
pokenum -h kc ks - ah 9c -- jh th 8h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jh Th 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 378 38.18 604 61.01 8 0.81 0.386
9c Ah 604 61.01 378 38.18 8 0.81 0.614

If he holds the ace of hearts and some form of a straigtening card you are a significant dog

Now apply these to a blank turn

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1321856
pokenum -h kc ks - 2h 8c -- jh th 8h 7d
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 7d Jh Th 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 27 61.36 14 31.82 3 6.82 0.648
8c 2h 14 31.82 27 61.36 3 6.82 0.352

NOW YOU ARE A FAVORITE

You aren't a favorite on the flop against ANYTHING BUT A BLUFF....do you get what people are telling you? JEEEEEEEEEEEEZUS you don't listen well. Yes you are AHEAD of 2h 8c on the flop....but that doesn't mean you are the favorite with 2 cards to come...basically if you push that flop you aren't giving your opponent a chance to make a mistake.....he's going to call you with probably winners, and he's going to fold garbage that he might bluff with or call turn bets that is now an underdog to your hand...do you see how that works. Remember the fundamental theory of poker "you win money when your opponent plays differently than they would if they know what you hold" If you let your opponent come over the top of you on a semi-bluff, he's playing the hand better than you...he figures he has some equity on a scary board, and a chance to win on his raise, plus he can still improve to win...do you see where everyone is going with this?

tewall

11-04-2005, 02:41 PM

There's a lot of other hands he could have. You've only consider a very small sample of the hands Villain could have which would get action.

He could have a pocket pair, say 9's (no 9h), which even gives him a straight draw. Hero is a 63-36 favorite. Or a smaller pocket pair, like 5's. 90-10 favorite (no 5h; 58-42 favorite with 5h). He could have a heart with no pair or straight draw. The poster said the guy played a lot of trash, so let's give him a trashy hand with a heart, say Qh 5s. Hero is a 54 46 favorite here. If it's a Kh 5s, that's a 62 38 favorite. He could have a pair with no hearts or straight draw, say As Js. That's a 78-22 favorite. He could have a hand with no heart that has a straight draw and a pair, like 8s 9s. Hero is a 56 44 favorite. He could have a straight draw with no pair, say As 9s. 60-40 favorite. He could have a hand which completely missed the flop, we'll give a good one, like As Kd. 70-30 favorite.

In all these cases hero benfits by betting by protecting his hand, while also giving a pissed off aggressive player an opportunity to go over the top with a hand where Hero is the favorite.

Say you check. What's the plan if a heart comes on the turn, and Villain bets? Same quesiton if a non-heart comes?

djoyce003

11-04-2005, 04:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There's a lot of other hands he could have. You've only consider a very small sample of the hands Villain could have which would get action.

He could have a pocket pair, say 9's (no 9h), which even gives him a straight draw. Hero is a 63-36 favorite. Or a smaller pocket pair, like 5's. 90-10 favorite (no 5h; 58-42 favorite with 5h). He could have a heart with no pair or straight draw. The poster said the guy played a lot of trash, so let's give him a trashy hand with a heart, say Qh 5s. Hero is a 54 46 favorite here. If it's a Kh 5s, that's a 62 38 favorite. He could have a pair with no hearts or straight draw, say As Js. That's a 78-22 favorite. He could have a hand with no heart that has a straight draw and a pair, like 8s 9s. Hero is a 56 44 favorite. He could have a straight draw with no pair, say As 9s. 60-40 favorite. He could have a hand which completely missed the flop, we'll give a good one, like As Kd. 70-30 favorite.

In all these cases hero benfits by betting by protecting his hand, while also giving a pissed off aggressive player an opportunity to go over the top with a hand where Hero is the favorite.

Say you check. What's the plan if a heart comes on the turn, and Villain bets? Same quesiton if a non-heart comes?

[/ QUOTE ]

None of the hands you mentioned are going to call a push or likely even bluff at this pot...that's everyones point...if you push against them you are letting them make the right decision...folding...that's the whole point everyone is making...yeah the guy might bluff with total crap...he might not too....if he was going to bluff push over the top of your continuation bet, he's probably going to bluff push the turn too.....why not wait till things look a little better for our hand?

tewall

11-04-2005, 04:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
None of the hands you mentioned are going to call a push or likely even bluff at this pot...that's everyones point...if you push against them you are letting them make the right decision...folding...that's the whole point everyone is making...yeah the guy might bluff with total crap...he might not too....if he was going to bluff push over the top of your continuation bet, he's probably going to bluff push the turn too.....why not wait till things look a little better for our hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason not to wait for the turn is that there are a lot of cards that can possibly beat you. What's your plan if one of these cards comes up? A heart falling is the most obvious scare card, but there's also an Ace, and straight cards that can come up as well. Why let Villain draw at these for free?

I disagree that Villain is unlikely to come over the top with the hands I mentioned. He was described as aggresive and pissed off. That's just the mind set that someone who is likely to come over the top would have. Also, in the example hands I gave, coming over the top with most of them would be a very reasonable play, as Villain would have the fold equity working for him, as well as being able to hit in many cases good draws (around 40%).

If the remaining stacks were smaller, I would like checking behind better, because you could induce someone with nothing to bet on the turn, and wouldn't be able to bet enough on the flop to make calling the flop unprofitable. In this scenario waiting makes sense. However, as things are the stacks are large enough that Hero can protect his hand by betting.

I still don't know what your plan is on the turn. What do you do if a heart or and Ace comes on the turn and Villain bets?

If you look at the range of hands Villain might have, and what would happen if Hero bets 150 vs. if he checks, I would be extremely surprised if checking works out better than betting. But I'm willing to be proven wrong. Make some assumptions, and show me the math.

BobboFitos

11-04-2005, 06:47 PM

Just posted this in SSNL yesterday, but fairly similar (Archived ML4L) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=plnlpoker&Number=726284&Fo rum=,,f5,,&Words=&Searchpage=2&Limit=25&Main=72616 6&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=775&daterange=1&n ewerval=&newertype=w&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev =#Post726284)

creedofhubris

11-05-2005, 03:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What if he didn't check the flop and he threw out some kind of bet, what do you do now? Call, raise or fold?

Just wondering if you considered that and if you did what you were thinking?

Ed S.

[/ QUOTE ]

My plan if he bet this flop was to call, and get allin on the turn if it was not a heart.

creedofhubris

11-05-2005, 03:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
None of the hands you mentioned are going to call a push or likely even bluff at this pot...that's everyones point...if you push against them you are letting them make the right decision...folding...that's the whole point everyone is making...yeah the guy might bluff with total crap...he might not too....if he was going to bluff push over the top of your continuation bet, he's probably going to bluff push the turn too.....why not wait till things look a little better for our hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason not to wait for the turn is that there are a lot of cards that can possibly beat you. What's your plan if one of these cards comes up? A heart falling is the most obvious scare card, but there's also an Ace, and straight cards that can come up as well. Why let Villain draw at these for free?

I disagree that Villain is unlikely to come over the top with the hands I mentioned. He was described as aggresive and pissed off. That's just the mind set that someone who is likely to come over the top would have. Also, in the example hands I gave, coming over the top with most of them would be a very reasonable play, as Villain would have the fold equity working for him, as well as being able to hit in many cases good draws (around 40%).

If the remaining stacks were smaller, I would like checking behind better, because you could induce someone with nothing to bet on the turn, and wouldn't be able to bet enough on the flop to make calling the flop unprofitable. In this scenario waiting makes sense. However, as things are the stacks are large enough that Hero can protect his hand by betting.

I still don't know what your plan is on the turn. What do you do if a heart or and Ace comes on the turn and Villain bets?

If you look at the range of hands Villain might have, and what would happen if Hero bets 150 vs. if he checks, I would be extremely surprised if checking works out better than betting. But I'm willing to be proven wrong. Make some assumptions, and show me the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Tewall -- as to giving up a free card, well, really the only hands that I am protecting against with a bet are Ax and some small pocket pair. Those are going to fold. But any piece of the flop is calling and I won't help define his hand or know where I stand. He's 50/50 to have a heart in his hand, that's the most likely draw to hurt me, so I'm going to operate on that assumption.

creedofhubris

11-05-2005, 03:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I decided that if I got a lot of money in on the flop, that money would not be going in with a big edge, and I would get a bigger edge if I waited until a turn no-heart. So I checked. I figured I wanted a small pot if the heart came and maybe could check call or something. If I got a blank, I planned to ship it allin.

The turn was not the blankest of blanks. 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, making the board

J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villain led for 1/2 pot, $100, which I interpreted as some sort of weak pair hand.

So I pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain called with the unexpectedly strong Q/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif, river blanked, my hand was good.

He was a slight favorite on the flop and about a 70-30 dog on the turn.

tewall

11-06-2005, 01:27 AM

Hi Tewall -- as to giving up a free card, well, really the only hands that I am protecting against with a bet are Ax and some small pocket pair. Those are going to fold.

Hi Creed! This statement is implying that you can only protect if your opponent folds. If this logic were true, then you should never bet a better hand if your opponent won't fold. Even if your opponent has the correct odds to call, betting a hand that's in front is still preferable to not betting, as a general rule. The down-side to betting here is that your opponent could come over the top, but you don't have enough chips for that to be a worry. 

But any piece of the flop is calling and I won't help define his hand or know where I stand.

It doesn't seem to me that defining his hand is a great need here, because of the stack sizes.

He's 50/50 to have a heart in his hand, that's the most likely draw to hurt me, so I'm going to operate on that assumption.

I think he's only about 37% likely to have a heart, so it's almost 2 to 1 he doesn't.

Here's some different scearios. He has(you are):
a1)Ax, no heart -- 3 to 1 favorite
a2)Ax, heart -- slight dog
b1)pair, no heart -- 3 to 1 favorite
b2)pari, heart -- coin flip
c1)str8 draw, no heart -- 2 to 1 favorite
c2)str8 flush draw -- 2 to 3 dog
d)nothing -- 3 to 1 favorite
e)made hand (set, straight, flush) -- huge dog

Checking behind is better when:
a)A heart doesn't come on the turn, and the card that does come doesn't improve him to a better hand than yours, and you get your money in as a favorite. In this case he is making a bigger mistake than he would be on the flop.
b)He has a heart, a heart comes on the turn, he bets, and you fold.

Betting is better if:
a)He will come over the top with hands that you are a favorite over, when he would have folded had you waited until the turn.
b)A card comes that improves his hand to a better one than yours on the turn.
c)A heart comes on the turn, he bets, you fold, and your hand had him beat.

Given how you described the player, my impression was that a bet of 150 would give you a good chance of getting all his money in on the flop with you being a favorite, giving the possibility of hands he could have, and how he would be likely to act. In the scenarios I mentioned, you are likely either a big favorite on the flop, are about a coin flip. There were those who thought you'd be better off checking to see what comes on the turn, and then deciding what to do, but what cards do you want to see? Almost any card that falls is a scare card for you.

If you consider the possible hands he could have, and the likely results if you bet 150 vs. if you checked, it is my opinion your overall E.V. would be higher if you bet the flop. However, your variance would no doubt be less by checking. I imagine this would lead to you folding when you were really ahead when a scare card comes on the turn, which would lower your E.V., but also lower your variance by quite a bit.

It was a very interesting hand to post! Good luck.

creedofhubris

11-06-2005, 02:52 AM

I was somewhat surprised that your 37% figure is correct, I guess my intuitions were off in that regard. That does skew things slightly. However, I think it's balanced by the fact that he will fold a number of hands that do not have hearts in them. So, his weighted hand range, assuming he continues with the pot, is at least 50% hearts. Would you agree here?

Here's the problem: if he has a heart in his hand, then a bet does nothing for me, since it's a coin flip at this point. And if he already has me beat, then a bet does even worse. By waiting until the turn comes, I can maximize the chance that I'm putting my money in with the best of it, because then I have a nice edge against a random hand with a heart in it.

If the turn is anything but a heart or an ace, my money is going in. With a heart or ace, I'm check/calling.

So, basically, his hands that have a piece of the flop and improve, but don't have a heart in them, are going to bust me regardless. If he hits a straight or two pair or something, that's a shame, but I don't feel I can back down against this player. I feel I'm not really giving up EV against these sorts of hands by checking, since a) he's calling a flop bet with those hands and b) I'm putting him in whether or not he hits and c) I won't be able to tell if a random "scare" card (like the 7) improves him, so I'll have to proceed on the assumption that he's just donking it up as usual.

BTW, the first of your three advantages of betting out:

[ QUOTE ]
a)He will come over the top with hands that you are a favorite over, when he would have folded had you waited until the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

is not the case with this opponent. He's not a bluffer. Perhaps that skewed me towards a check.

The only catastrophic failure of the checking strategy, to my mind, would be if he caught a card with a hand that would've folded the flop. That means Ax, where x is lower than 8, and a small pocket pair. Which is why I talked about protecting my hand by betting those out. But in both those cases, he's got three or two outs, so my -EV downside is minimal, particularly since an ace is going to put me into check/call mode.

tewall

11-06-2005, 03:26 AM

This last post was helpful, as it gives more information.

If this guy's not a bluffer, why are you planning to call him down if an Ace or a heart comes on the turn? This indicates he is a bluffer, or you wouldn't call him. So if he's likely enough to bluff the turn to make you call him down, why wouldn't he bluff raise the flop, which is a much better play? If I had a heart I would check-raise this flop in a heart beat (so to speak), wouldn't you? If I have a heart in Villain's position, I check the flop, hoping it's checked through. If someone bet 150, I c/r all-in hoping to take it down, but if not, I have outs. That's an easy play. So your assessment that he would not bluff c/r with a heart in this situation doesn't seem right to me.

He's another situation where betting gains you money. You bet 150, he calls, a heart doesn't come on the turn, you make a proportionately similar bet on the turn, and he folds. This is actually a likely scenario, assuming he calls your flop bet. The alternative scenario would be you check behind the flop, a heart doesn't come, he checks the turn to you, you bet, and then he folds. By betting the flop you pick up an extra 150 whenever he has a heart and a heart doesn't come on the turn.

It sounds like your overall strategy is not to back down against this guy, which means you want to get as much money in as you can, since you are likely ahead. The way to do this is to bet the flop, with the size of the bet being small enough that he will call.

creedofhubris

11-06-2005, 04:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This last post was helpful, as it gives more information.

If this guy's not a bluffer, why are you planning to call him down if an Ace or a heart comes on the turn? This indicates he is a bluffer, or you wouldn't call him. So if he's likely enough to bluff the turn to make you call him down, why wouldn't he bluff raise the flop, which is a much better play? If I had a heart I would check-raise this flop in a heart beat (so to speak), wouldn't you? If I have a heart in Villain's position, I check the flop, hoping it's checked through. If someone bet 150, I c/r all-in hoping to take it down, but if not, I have outs. That's an easy play. So your assessment that he would not bluff c/r with a heart in this situation doesn't seem right to me.

He's another situation where betting gains you money. You bet 150, he calls, a heart doesn't come on the turn, you make a proportionately similar bet on the turn, and he folds. This is actually a likely scenario, assuming he calls your flop bet. The alternative scenario would be you check behind the flop, a heart doesn't come, he checks the turn to you, you bet, and then he folds. By betting the flop you pick up an extra 150 whenever he has a heart and a heart doesn't come on the turn.

It sounds like your overall strategy is not to back down against this guy, which means you want to get as much money in as you can, since you are likely ahead. The way to do this is to bet the flop, with the size of the bet being small enough that he will call.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has little conception of hand strength. He doesn't back down when he's obviously beaten, he'll bet marginal hands. BUT he habitually throws out these 1/4-1/2 pot bets. When he starts throwing out pot bets he has the goods.

I suspect I could probably let go of my KK if he bet out big when a heart or A came.

He's not gonna checkraise the flop with a heart because he doesn't think that way. IMO. But I really don't want my money to go allin on the flop anyway if he's got a heart, that's an EV-neutral result for me.

[ QUOTE ]

By betting the flop you pick up an extra 150 whenever he has a heart and a heart doesn't come on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming he drops his heart when I bet the turn. I doubt it.

sawseech

11-06-2005, 05:38 AM

i shrug and move in here
i refuse to think with him this short

tewall

11-06-2005, 02:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He's not gonna checkraise the flop with a heart because he doesn't think that way. IMO. But I really don't want my money to go allin on the flop anyway if he's got a heart, that's an EV-neutral result for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he won't raise you, and he makes bad calls, that's even more reason to bet. I understand wanting to wait until the turn, so he can make a bigger mistake, but your E.V. should be higher if you bet the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
You're assuming he drops his heart when I bet the turn. I doubt it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, then let's consider two situations. We'll simplify the problem so all we're concerned about is the heart draw. We'll assume for Plan 1:
a)You bet 150 on the pot, and then
a1)Go all-in if a heart doesn't come
a2)Villain bets and you fold if a heart comes
In this scenario I calculate you expect to gain 314.

Plan 2 is wait until the turn to bet, and
a)Bet the pot if a heart doesn't come, which Villain calls.
b)Fold to a bet if a heart comes.

In this sceanrio I calculate an expected gain of 224.

This is just looking at the heart situation, making the assumption Villain is on a heart draw, which he needs to catch to beat you. If we look at the situations where Villain is not on a heart draw, betting is even clearer, given that your plan is not to induce a bluff.

So it seems to me betting is more profitable than checking. You can let me know if I'm missing something.

I think you're line's a perfectly reasonably line, BTW, just that betting an amount like 150 is even better.

creedofhubris

11-06-2005, 03:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's not gonna checkraise the flop with a heart because he doesn't think that way. IMO. But I really don't want my money to go allin on the flop anyway if he's got a heart, that's an EV-neutral result for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he won't raise you, and he makes bad calls, that's even more reason to bet. I understand wanting to wait until the turn, so he can make a bigger mistake, but your E.V. should be higher if you bet the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
You're assuming he drops his heart when I bet the turn. I doubt it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, then let's consider two situations. We'll simplify the problem so all we're concerned about is the heart draw. We'll assume for Plan 1:
a)You bet 150 on the pot, and then
a1)Go all-in if a heart doesn't come
a2)Villain bets and you fold if a heart comes
In this scenario I calculate you expect to gain 314.

Plan 2 is wait until the turn to bet, and
a)Bet the pot if a heart doesn't come, which Villain calls.
b)Fold to a bet if a heart comes.

In this sceanrio I calculate an expected gain of 224.

This is just looking at the heart situation, making the assumption Villain is on a heart draw, which he needs to catch to beat you. If we look at the situations where Villain is not on a heart draw, betting is even clearer, given that your plan is not to induce a bluff.

So it seems to me betting is more profitable than checking. You can let me know if I'm missing something.

I think you're line's a perfectly reasonably line, BTW, just that betting an amount like 150 is even better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not checking flop then potting the turn, I'm checking flop then pushing the turn.