PS 10+1 late

[pooh74]

Sorry, at work...this is from memory:

61 left, 135 paid...you know the drill, only worth it in top 5 or so...anyway:


Blinds: 800/1600 plus antes (full table)
Hero in SB: 27K
BB: 24k
Button:45K

all fold to button who calls, hero has A5h...easy push right? Just making sure, thanks

p

Edit: 3rd hand at table so no reads nor player stats...

[miajag81]

If this is really an "easy push," I must be missing some fundamental concept of tournament poker (which is entirely possible).

[Skjonne]

BB is still to act and a button limp is really suspicious this late in a tourney. My stack is still very playable, so I just complete and hopefully see a flop and take it from there

[Exitonly]

i dunno if you really have to push. a bet of 5k will accomplish the same thing, and let you get out when you're killed.

That said, i think i probably just complete here.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
If this is really an "easy push," I must be missing some fundamental concept of tournament poker (which is entirely possible).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, i could fold...

I am not raising, because I dont want to play this OOP for sure and I also cannot really lay down to a RR...

Button limping has shown me nothing, unless he's trapping (doubt it) what does he call half of his stack with? By just pushing, I am adding almost 20% to my stack.

Of course I might be fundamentally flawed...I am a SNGer by trade and not the best MTTer by far.

[miajag81]

[ QUOTE ]
My stack is still very playable, so I just complete and hopefully see a flop and take it from there

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly, you still have like 17BB, no reason to push here IMO.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is still to act and a button limp is really suspicious this late in a tourney. My stack is still very playable, so I just complete and hopefully see a flop and take it from there

[/ QUOTE ]

In a $10, a button limp does not necessarily mean anything more than the guy got both his cards. Occasionally you'll see a monster, but I wouldn't count on it.

If I'm raising, I'm probably pushing. At this point a walk in the blinds can be very pleasant, so you gotta train the guys to your right to keep their paws off.

That said, I'll complete with a suited ace. Keeps you from trouble if BB or button wakes up with a monster pre-flop, and gives you the chance to flop something very nice/playable.

I don't see how raising to 3xBB commits you if someone comes over the top.

raise to 4800 or 6000. fold to a reraise.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how raising to 3xBB commits you if someone comes over the top.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I pretty much see this whole play as very weak being in the SB. I am POing myself on a flop or checking.
I have ~15BBs but the antes are in effect so stacks go down fast.

You guys are all talking about BB waking up with a hand but I am willing to discount that prospect because he calls with a VERY narrow range. (he called, lol).

So basically, my play was right on except I was willing to ignore BB and I ran into one real bad.

So the consensus is that from a risk/reward perspective I went a little too far here? If you are 99% sure the BB is folding here do you then push? Or is the concern more about the button?

[TakenItEasy]

The problem with pushing here is that your risk reward is way too high. The stacks still have plenty of room here for a standard raise which will accomplish the same thing. 10XBB or 7X(blinds+antes) is about the correct size to start pushing when raising.

My guess is that BB was tight for a reason. He has plenty of money and can afford your steals. He sees you overbetting BTF too often so he tightens up and waits for you to give your stack away.

[Jah Red]

For me it really depends on the BB and how aggressive I perceive him to be. If I think he will raise if I complete, I'll probably fold. I don't like to play small aces OOP against agressive opponents. Too many times I flop an Ace only to get blown off the hand by the more agressive BB or Button. I am not desperate yet and I would prefer to wait for a better spot.

If the BB is not very aggressive I'll complete and play the flop.

No reads, I'll complete and play the flop or fold if the BB puts in a raise.

Pushing seems really wrong given the suspicious limp from the button and the fact that I am not risking all my chips to increase my stack like 12%

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with pushing here is that your risk reward is way too high. The stacks still have plenty of room here for a standard raise which will accomplish the same thing. 10XBB or 7X(blinds+antes) is about the correct size to start pushing when raising.

My guess is that BB was tight for a reason. He has plenty of money and can afford your steals. He sees you overbetting BTF too often so he tightens up and waits for you to give your stack away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well not really (I was just moved to the table recently...previous table was hating my donkish laggy ways though).

But you're right, its a risk/reward issue plain and simple. I guess I shouldve just completed because I would have to raise enough out of the SB to make sure I didnt get into any tricky oop flop situations.

I should add that I had a bit of an $/hr. consideration in this push as well...I was feeling a bit sick and tired and wanted to hit the hay...so I took some risks that I guess shouldnt be normally taken.

[lotus776]

why would you risk your entire stack on a push? you've got a very playable stack compared to the blindsm raise 2 or X BB and fold to RR

[nath]

Geez, it's not THAT bad of a push. It's probably not necessary; a raise to 6k might accomplish the same thing, but if button is a tricky player, he might re-raise you. I think the 6k will accomplish your goal though.
A push will almost certainly win the hand... it's just that it obliterates you the times BB wakes up with something or button inexplicably has a better hand and calls.

[schwza]

i think pushing here is fine. i used to be very susp. of button limps, but now i think it's often just some misc. mediocre hand. completing is fine too.

everybody saying "you have 16x" or whatever - you have to remember the antes, which means that your stack is effectively much shorter (at least from my perspective, b/c i'm used to playing on party.)

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
i think pushing here is fine. i used to be very susp. of button limps, but now i think it's often just some misc. mediocre hand. completing is fine too.

everybody saying "you have 16x" or whatever - you have to remember the antes, which means that your stack is effectively much shorter (at least from my perspective, b/c i'm used to playing on party.)

[/ QUOTE ]

TY, this is what I was thinking...but, it was BB who woke up with JJ...I really wasnt worried about the button limp at all...in fact, it is was caused me to push in the first place...If it were folded to me in sb, I make standard raise and fold to BB's push...the extra 1600 made it worth the risk in my mind at the time. (I saw this as a 90% FE situation so maybe I inflated it a bit too much)

[schwza]

90% is way too high. i don't have a great sense of turning 10% into a range, but i bet BB is calling you well more than 10%, not to mention button.

edit: turns out 88+, A9+, KQ is 10% of hands. he's probably not calling with much more than that (and maybe not with KQ/A9), but button is also in the hand.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
90% is way too high. i don't have a great sense of turning 10% into a range, but i bet BB is calling you well more than 10%, not to mention button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I pulled that out of my a$$, but Ill have to go see what that translates into figuring button's limp and BB's calling range...you're probably right but I dont think risk/reward/EV wise this push is awful...but definitely borders on "highly unnecessary"

[schwza]

but if you are winning with no SD 90% it's hugely profitable.

very rough estimate:

assume 900 in antes, then 5700 in pot including your complete.

if you get called, say you're 33% to win. you push for 26k, the first 5700 is at even money, for the last 20k you lose 33% equity, for -6.5k.

completing gives you ~1/3 equity in a 5700 pot, or about 2k, so the -6.5k should include the missed opportunity to complete, so pushing and getting called is -8.5k.

8.5k ~= 1.5 times 5.7k that you win, so you need to win the pot uncontested 60% of your pushes.

that's very rough and could have major errors as well, but i'm trying to practice estimating it quickly.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
but if you are winning with no SD 90% it's hugely profitable.

very rough estimate:

assume 900 in antes, then 5700 in pot including your complete.

if you get called, say you're 33% to win. you push for 26k, the first 5700 is at even money, for the last 20k you lose 33% equity, for -6.5k.

completing gives you ~1/3 equity in a 5700 pot, or about 2k, so the -6.5k should include the missed opportunity to complete, so pushing and getting called is -8.5k.

8.5k ~= 1.5 times 5.7k that you win, so you need to win the pot uncontested 60% of your pushes.

that's very rough and could have major errors as well, but i'm trying to practice estimating it quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

If those numbers are correct, I think it makes this a decent play. (players at this stage of these things get very tight...raising and folding to reraises often-and incorrectly most likely)