JJ on the button, easy laydown?

[fnurt]

First hand of PokerStars big $200+$15 NL tourney, blinds are 10/20. I pick up two red Jacks on the button, one limper in EP, one limper in MP, I raise to 120. Blinds fold and limpers call. Pot is 390.

Flop is 752 with 2 hearts. Checked to me and I bet 600. EP folds, MP raises to 1700.

Comments? Is this an easy decision?

[Fitz]

I'm still learning the whole NL tourney game, but I am beginning to get one point pounded into my thick skull. Don't call off your chips. It is tempting since you've got an overpair, but without some very convincing info on the raiser, I'd have to let it go here.

I'd be curious to see what others think,

[Sly_Grin]

don't you start with 1500 ? Anyway, if someone is willing to risk 1700 on the first hand - which I assume is almost all-in - I'm gonna give him credit for a set and fold.

[Guy McSucker]

Like it says, N/M.

Guy.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Not even close to easy. There are plenty of people in this tourney who would make that raise with A7, 88, 99, TT, as well as with the hands that beat you (sets, AA-QQ).

I would tend to seriously discount the possibility of AA, and even KK. QQ to a smaller extent. This is MP, who flat-called preflop after 1 limper. Few people trap with big pairs preflop unless they are the first person to come in. Many more of them raise if there has already been a limper. Plus, if they were trapping, they just got you for T120 preflop, and EP called, so you would expect them to decloak preflop and make you both pay to outdraw them. So, I find overpairs an unlikely holding.

However, plenty of folks will go for it here with any pair, as they will decide you have AK and they are ahead. So, if they were holding a medium overpair (e.g., 99) or flopped one pair, I wouldn't be shocked. Also, a pair and a flush draw is possible. You said 2 hearts, but not which. Assuming the board is 7h5d2h, they could be sitting on something like 5h6h. While such a hand does make them a favorite over you, you are getting way more in pot odds than you need to make the call. When they're holding a hand like this, it is a small mistake for you to fold, and therefore the situation is essentially neutral.

Overall, I think this is a spot for you to call, if it's correct that you have no history on this player, and know nothing about his tendencies. That being the case, you have to assume he's a "typical" player in this event, which means you can be way ahead as well as way behind him at this point. Since you've already invested T720 out of T2500, and are getting pretty close to 2:1 on this call, I think a call is in order.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[fnurt]

I see what you're saying, Greg. Please provide me with your home phone number so that after I spend ~3 hours qualifying for this event, only to bust out on the first hand, I have someone to come to for sympathy...

I do think that if my intent is to call a check-raise, I should bet less on the flop. One of the reasons why I overbet the pot was so I could feel better about making a laydown. If I had bet 2/3 of the pot and got check-raised, I feel like I'd have much less of a clue about whether I'm ahead.

You'd like to think that when someone flops a set against your overpair you would be able to get away without losing your entire stack at least some of the time. But I see your point and it's certainly true they could make this play with hands I'm ahead of. It's a difficult situation...

[Copernicus]

I agree its not easy, and it may depend on your ability relative to the rest of the players (either typical for the tourney or you know the actual names). If you think you are a well above average player, fold, otherwise call.

Super/System NL (admittedly not tournament, but this early similar enough) would probably say fold JJ, call QQ as I recall.

If it were the tourney I usually play in (Party single table) its an easy fold for a similar % of my chips. The odds are probably there for a call, but there is plenty of time.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

It is extremely difficult online. There is nothing to go on, other than the expected tendencies of the player. And if it's a new nick, then you can only assume that their tendencies are similar to those of other online players, which is a poor assumption, even if it is the best available.

I have seen situations like this many times, and when the hands are shown, I often see the raiser holding a MUCH weaker hand than I would rationally expect. So often, in fact, that you really can't give too much credit to an unknown name. Plus, many of the names I'm familiar with are so damn aggressive, the possibility of a pure bluff is always relatively high.

These hands are MUCH easier to play in RL. You can get some sort of read on the player. How happy were they about the raise preflop. How did they react when they saw the flop. How heavy are they breathing now that they have gone all-in. Etc. A thousand ways to improve your decision are potentially available if you know how to look for them.

Of course, if it's an unknown opponent, you still have a lot of guessing to do, but you can guess better in RL than online.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Greg,

Everything you say seems reasonable, except I'm not sure I understand why you say call the raise. You're calling off 62% of your remaining chips and without the reads you get in B&M, yet you're still in no-man's land on the turn. Unless there's a reasonable chance the pot gets checked down on the turn and the river, you're either going to have to call another bet or make another bet to win, so if you're comfortable enough calling the reraise on the flop, why not put your opponent to the test of deciding if he wants to risk elimination right then?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Well, if you read the post incorrectly like me, you'd understand. I thought the raise was 1700 more, meaning just calling was practically all-in anyway. Being as it's to a total of 1700, I don't think it matter much whether you call or reraise all-in. What can he fold for about 800 more when there is well over 4000 in the pot? It would have to be the coldest stone-cold bluff in history to fold it now. Either way, all the money is going in, and I'd only lay it down if I knew the raiser, and against him folding was the better play. Against an unknown, this early in the event, I think our hero is ahead enough to make calling (and eventually going all-in) correct.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Magician]

I'd lay it down.

In similar situations I called and most of the time that was my early elimination from the tournament.

I would have bet just pot-size on the flop so it would have been an easier laydown for me.

[maplepig]

normally I will fold, but for first hand, I will call. Within first two rounds of play, I pretty much call with anything better than top pair, good kicker if there's a flush draw on board. There are always some aggressive players trying to buy the pot early in tournament. I think you just caught one. After all, he's correct to play this way with any Ace high flush draw. More than half the time, you will hold overcards, more than half the people will fold here with over pair. If he get called, he still has about 40% chance to win against overpair, why wouldn't he do so?
If I have ATh, I tend to play this way at least 30% of the time.

[ohkanada]

Not sure why you bet 600 into a 390 pot on the flop. I likely bet 300 into the pot. Now if I get re-raised a bundle I feel less tied to the pot.

Tough decision on calling or raising all-in. Against many players a check-raise is a set or a slowplayed big pair. Of course with the high card on board being a 7, 88-TT may be betting you have AK. Depending on which cards are the hearts a Ah7h might play the hand the way your opponent did.

Ken Poklitar

[fnurt]

I actually felt less tied to the pot after overbetting it on the flop, since I felt I was less likely to be check-raised after a clear show of strength by anything except a real hand. If I had bet 2/3 of the pot I'd feel a lot less comfortable about what to do next.

If this is fuzzy thinking I'd be interested to hear it.

[ohkanada]

So what does an overbet on the flop by the pre-flop raiser mean? Does it mean that you have AK and missed and does not want to be called? Or does it mean that I have a darn good hand?

When you bet 600 into a 390 pot, who is going to call you? I can't imagine many hands that I would cold call you with except for hands that have you beat.

The problem is lets say you did have AK and you want to take a stab at the pot. Are you going to bet 150% of the pot or would you rather bet 75% of the pot?

More often than not when you raise you will have 2 big cards and you will usually miss. If you always bet 150% when you have an overpair but bet 75% when you miss, good players will notice what you are doing.

If I am going to bet the flop I would normally bet 75% of the pot if I have an overpair or if I have overcards or even a set.

Ken Poklitar