a couple turn decisions 20-40

[mike l.]

hand 1: i have QQ in mid position. i openraise and am cold called by two. the blinds call as well.

the flop is J32 w/ two diamonds. i have the Qd. sb comes out betting. he seems like a pretty reasonable older guy. bb calls, i raise, folded back to sb who reraises, bb calls, i call.

the turn is Ks. sb thinks for a bit and then bets again, bb calls. what's my play?

hand 2: i have AcKc in mid position. btw ive been playing pretty reasonably and tight this session. someone limps, i raise, someone cold calls, sb calls (same sb as hand 1), bb calls, limper calls. 5 of us again.

the flop is Jc8d7h. checked to me and i bet, folded to sb who checkraises, bb calls two cold, limper folds, i call.

the turn is Ts. sb bets, bb calls. what's my play?

thanks in advance oh wise forum.

[elysium]

hi mike
in the first hand, that 'thinks a bit',.....i see that a lot. it's just funny. i have never seen that expression used in a hand that the poster lost. what would help is knowing whether the J is a diamond. if it is, then both of these opponents are on the flush draw; if it isn't, then both are still on the draw, but the SB has AJd. youll have to raise mike, and call any reraise. do not worry about a set. you clearly will win provided the flush doesn't complete and the A or J doesn't fall. two pair is highly unlikely.

in hand 2, the SB has a strong J, but the BB is tough to put on anything. he may have a KJ or QJ, but TT or 99 is just as likely. he's not on a draw. you're down to 4 outs. the A and K are no good. but notice that you have position. this means that if your call closes the round, an A or K on the river will have some value, so....of course you want to see the Q, and you should get called, but you will be checked to, so your implied odds are marginal, razor thin. these opponents will not fold. no way. so don't even think about it. you must hit on the river. if it's an A or K, don't call a raise. youll have to fold. and do not, of course, raise on the turn here. one of the reasons you can call is because your call closes the action.

[Diplomat]

Hi Mike,

it depends what you think the small blind's pause means. I could be wrong here, but often it means that they cannot beat a king. If they cannot beat a king, then they cannot beat queens, and you should raise. I have a tell that is very similar to this that I'm trying to eliminate, where I pause before betting when an overcard hits on the turn to my pair.

I think it's fairly player dependent. Was this pause intentional, to fake weakness? Was he actually weak, and now is worried you have a hand like AK and spiked a king on the turn? I think raising here is fine, but it's so very player dependent, I think you are the best judge.

In short, I'd raise the turn based on a read of weakness, and maybe check behind on the river if an ace or other dangerous card appeared.

Another question I have about this hand is which cards were diamonds; I think many players would be very agressive here with a hand like J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif T /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif. Just another thought.

As for the second hand, I hate these situations. I never really know what to do with myself. I might call if I'm playing bad. I might call if I'm playing good and hitting. I might fold if I'm playing good and missing. I might raise if I'm playing good and doing well pushing people off hands. I don't really have a straight answer or analysis here.

-Diplomat

[Tommy Angelo]

"i have QQ ... i have AcKc"

Now you're playing the game.

"hand 1: i have QQ ... sb comes out betting [the flop]... bb calls, i raise, folded back to sb who reraises, bb calls, i call."

I think it's a big choke to not make it four bets. And not just because you have a chance to get more chips in with the likely best hand. If you fourbet now, it sets everything up sweet for the turn. If they checkraise you, you know they've got one pair beat because there is no way they can expect you to raise preflop, fourbet the flop, bet the turn, and then poof, muck.

And more. It's all about the huge difference in the way the strength of your hand is perceived. When you raise the SB on the flop, so what. Don't mean much. Now he reraises, and you just call. The fact that the strength of you hand is now concealed hurts you more than helps, IMO, because now you have to guess through the rest of the hand under the assumption that they do not think you have a hand as strong as QQ. That spells sucky payoffs that could have been avoided with a fourbet. The fourbet increases the likelihood of you putting more money in with the best hand(speaking of the flop round), while minimizing the likelihood that you later put money in with the worst hand (speaking of the turn and river).

And look what happens if a diamond comes. After your fourbet, they will be a bit more likely to fear the ace of trump in your hand, if they don't hold it, and it'll be just a wee bit easier for you to correctly muck (your draw on the turn, or flush on the river), if they do have it.

On and on. I think you should have fourbet the flop.

"the turn is Ks. sb thinks for a bit and then bets again, bb calls. what's my play?"

Anything but raise.

"hand 2: i have AcKc"

Checkcall the flop. Checkfold the turn. In and out. Surgical.


Tommy

[Diplomat]

"Anything but raise"

I think I am missing something. Ok, I'm definitely missing something. Why not raise?

-Diplomat

[DanZ]

I would raise the queens again on the turn. I think you have at least one of them beat, and likely both. If not, you were going to call twice, and you cost yourself 2 outs. One reason to raise is the SB could easily have the other queens and you should fold him out with a raise. You might also get him to fold 5 outs, which is a nice coup.


On the AK hand, the odds might justify a gut shot, but, of course, someone likely has a q. There's a tiny chance a raise wins the pot, but I'd guess take a card and pray.

[elysium]

hi mike
chit, on hand 1, i didn't see the MP with the K hi draw. i don't know what i was thinking. stupid, i forgot somehow that you can't beat the MP's K hi. i think i was tired or distracted. but i like the call of the 3 bet. i'm listening to what tommy is saying, but i don't think that that you can represent the A, and if you could, you can't shake off the K hi. and this opponent is solid and is 3 betting into a solid. well, you won't have to worry about bluffs here mike.

on hand 2, you have position making the A or K pair callable. that with the inside draw to the nuts gives you enough to see the river. here it's your excellent position. i rarely digress from tommy's line but here i think a turn call is clearly in order.

sorry about the bad advice on hand 1. had my head up my ask. yea, i think a pair of K's beats a pair of Q's. don't raise, call.

[mike l.]

"If they checkraise you, you know they've got one pair beat because there is no way they can expect you to raise preflop, fourbet the flop, bet the turn, and then poof, muck."

you know it and i know it and everyone knows it, but my hands dont seem to know cause im not finding these mucks lately, im not trusting myself. when my hand should be mucking, it's spazzing and grabbing 16 chips, 8 to call the turn, and 8 to call the river. plus i was totally confused when he bet the turn anyways.

"Anything but raise."

i seriously considered raising. i wanted to make a statement and play the hand tough and not let him bet AJ or a flush draw into me for value and think he can get away with it. as it was i just called, it didnt feel right at all though. honestly the one thing i didnt really consider at all was folding.

but to backtrack: as for the flop non-cap well maybe im exaggerating a little re: fearing my inability to muck facing turn aggression. i honestly called his 3 bet so i could raise him on the turn when he bet what i thought might be an AJ that he would call me down w/ the whole way (might on the AJ part, definitely on the call me down part). oh one more thing: 4 bets is a cap down here, so i dont get the added value of having him 5 bet it for me on the flop. but you seemed to have noticed that from the way you posted that. thought it might be worth a mention anyways.

hand 2: "Checkfold the turn."

but but but...

i have a gutshot and two (count em two!) overcards?? can i call? and the pot is BIGGG. pleeease?? i reeeealllly want to call.... waaaahh... pleeeze????

[elysium]

hi diplomat
tommy's 100% right. the MP has the K hi. so mike's not leading. yea, he has a draw, but mike unfortunately can't make him pay. i started it. i should have seen that immediately. stupid.

[bobgreen]

Regarding hand 1...

"sb comes out betting" = 1 pr, 2pr, set, flush draw?

"I raise...sb reraises" = pair+flush draw, 2pr, set?

"sb thinks for a bit and then bets" = 80% pair+flush draw (no K); 10% 2 pair(no K, genuine fear of KJ); 10% (Hollywood) set.

bb calls, bb calls = 90% one pair jacks or flush draw (no K); 10% flush draw w/ K.

So I have you ahead 72% of the time, and I recommend a turn raise and (if no diamond or J comes) a river bet.

regarding hand 2...
Would three betting the flop get you a free river? If so, do it. If not, why bet the flop into four opponents?

[andyfox]

Hand 1: I'd 4-bet the flop. I like playing an overpair like I have an overpair so when an overcard to the flop comes they fear me. All that stuff Tommy said (and said well) about not having to guess.

Hand 2: I don't understand the flop bet. This is a great "limpers" flop: mid/high straightish cards. No way you're going to win this pot with a bet and only 6 cards in the deck you're going to like (maybe) on the turn.

Once it's up to you on the river, there's $400 in the pot, so you're getting 10:1 for a 10.5:1 shot for the nuts. You'll probably win a bunch if you catch perfect. (Plus it's not impossible an Ace or a King would win the hand.)

[Zeno]

If you need any more emphasis for Hand No. 1 besides Tommy's excellent post and Andy's follow up:

Four bet the flop. That was my thought also when I read your post.

Hand No. 2, Check and call the flop. See turn card and make decision, and with a 10 on the turn - I see a fold.

-Zeno

[mike l.]

i called on the turn in both hands and caught a pot-winning river Q on each hand as well. in hand one it was checked to me on the river meaning sb did not have a set, but he did probably have K high flush draw (probably AKs he's a pretty weak tight guy i later learned) because he was very angry when he called on the river and saw what i had caught. no tommy it wasnt an act, not all players try so hard to conceal what they had after the showdown.

on hand 2 i had the good fortune of the bb betting into me on the river with what appeared to be a 9 giving him the Q-8 straight. he called my raise. sb was irate again as he folded (he didnt call two cold).

[CrackerZack]

Glad to see your back in the action mike.

4-bet the flop in the QQ hand. He could take your raise to mean a lot of things, your 4-bet lets them know you have a real hand. This flop is good for you but there are still 2 scary overcards and a diamond draw out there. Get the money in now. On the turn I'd call and most likely call the river unless I spike a Q. If the diamonds get there and the action picks up, you can find the muck.

if the flop in hand 2 was JT7 instead of J87 I'd say 3-bet the flop and check behind on the turn. As this one goes, I'd say check the flop and call one bet, check-fold the turn although you picked up 4 outs and if you have a good read on where you stand, 10 outs may justify seeing the river. I wouldn't be sure of where I stood or if either of my overcards was good though so I'd probably muck.

[Vehn]

"hand 1: i have QQ ... sb comes out betting [the flop]... bb calls, i raise, folded back to sb who reraises, bb calls, i call."

I think it's a big choke to not make it four bets. And not just because you have a chance to get more chips in with the likely best hand. If you fourbet now, it sets everything up sweet for the turn. If they checkraise you, you know they've got one pair beat because there is no way they can expect you to raise preflop, fourbet the flop, bet the turn, and then poof, muck.

What about the fact that you have 8 outs against 2 pair? + if its a diamond on the turn he has to call anyways (I guess). I think its a mistake to fold an overpair to a turn checkraise like this consistently especially in a big pot like this.

[Lee Jones]

Pretty please post one hand per post.

#1: I'm not the world's best hand reader. But SB has a pretty good jack, BB has diamonds. I think SB puts you on diamonds and doesn't want you to have a free turn card. I'd raise again, and if he calls, check the river.

The only problem is that it sure looks like BB has diamonds, and you'd think SB can see that too. And if SB thinks BB has diamonds, he can't really be putting you on diamonds, can he?

But frankly, that's great academic fun, but it fails the Occam test. SB didn't believe your flop raise for whatever reason (I suspect you raise the flop a lot). A raise looks good.

Regards, Lee

[elindauer]

hand 1: raise. The first guy probably has a hand like AJs or QJs. He 3-bet the flop because he thinks you are semi-bluffing with a draw yourself. He didn't like the overcard to his jacks, but decided he couldn't give the free card to the flush draw. The second actually has the flush draw. Calling isn't bad, but seems a bit passive to me.

hand 2: fold. With the 1 card straight out there you may be down to 4 outs, and can be ruined by an ace or king against a hands like AJ, KJ...

[mike l.]

"fold. With the 1 card straight out there you may be down to 4 outs"

count the size of the pot.

[Lee Jones]

I think it's a big choke to not make it four bets. And not just because you have a chance to get more chips in with the likely best hand. If you fourbet now, it sets everything up sweet for the turn. If they checkraise you, you know they've got one pair beat because there is no way they can expect you to raise preflop, fourbet the flop, bet the turn, and then poof, muck.

Regards, Lee

[andyfox]

It doesn't say to muck. It says they wouldn't expect you to muck. One can then decide if it is worthwhile to call based on the information you now have that they have one pair beat and the pot odds offered to draw to the putative 8 outs.

[CrackerZack]

You're short the odds to draw to a 4-outer, but it isn't a 4-outer, its an n-outer where 4 <= n <= 10. The problem becomes if you hit the A or K and have to pay off the river not knowing if you're good. This call is very marginal.

[mike l.]

"You're short the odds to draw to a 4-outer, but it isn't a 4-outer, its an n-outer where 4 <= n <= 10. The problem becomes if you hit the A or K and have to pay off the river not knowing if you're good. This call is very marginal."

i think it's much closer than you think and so close it doesnt really matter much long run all said and done. if the pot were a bit smaller or the players much tougher (for instance if sb will fearlessly bet the river when a K falls when he holds AJ) it'd push it more into marginal territory. that said, there are times when n <= 3 when someone has a Q in their hand.