Quick 44 pf question

[aargh57]

Prima $3/6 6max (5 handed

Button was LP pf about 40/0/.6 after about 60 hands. The BB and CO were both loose players.

Hero is in SB with 44

1 fold, CO limps, button raises,Hero ?

Sorry if this is an easy question. I think I know the answer.

[MrWookie47]

Against that button, it's an easy fold. I'd consider calling in the BB, however.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Button is way way too passive to consider this, you won't have a shot at making up many bets post flop.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Button is way way too passive to consider this, you won't have a shot at making up many bets post flop.

[/ QUOTE ] And with a zero pfr after 60 hands, when this guy raises, get out of the way. Plus you don't have a bunch of limpers there to pay you off if you make a set. Easy fold.

[Gunther S.]

GS says call. I don't think you want to try to isolate, because you're looking to make money on your flopped set. For 1.5 bets you're looking at a 7 (maybe 8) small bet pot, 3 or 4 handed. That looks like it's making you money, which overrules a fold.

If you 3-bet, you're looking at paying 2.5 bets for an 8 small bet pot, heads up. I don't think the implied odds pay you enough to justify this.

This is theoretical for me, so if this looks wrong please refute it.

[deception5]

Raising here is out of the question in my opinion. It's either call or fold. Calling is going to cost 1.66SB for a shot at a 4.33-6.33SB pot (4.33 being unlikely but 5.33 being possible in my opinion). We need to collect a little over 12SB total to make a profit, a difference of around 6-8SB.

In the worst case you know button is calling to the river - he raises so infrequently that there is little doubt we're against a premium hand. So it's very likely we'll make up 5SB if he passively calls down when we hit a set. It's also very likely that this is one of the few situations he'll be willing to bet/raise postflop so we should be able to get that up to at least 6-7SB if not more. So I think it's pretty close.

The fact that BB and CO are loose tilts this to a call in my opinion - because while the button may casually call down with an overpair, BB and CO will often peel with overcard(s) and we may even get some action from worse hands (or at least multiple chasers) when we spike a set.

[Stealthy]

I would fold this without a second thought. A lot of good things need to happen for us to make up all those extra bets if we do hit a set. A passive player has to be putting 2 big bets in on one of the big streets, the limper donating a couple would help. And of course the button will need a decent PP in the first place. Added to that our our chances that any set we flop is not always going to hold up and we are out of position. I'm not playing it.

[lufbradolly]

I'd fold here.

The stats on the button look solid for a 5 handed.

Also pairs 22-66 are tough to play well postflop because theres gonna be so many boards that are scary to 22-66.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Also pairs 22-66 are tough to play well postflop because theres gonna be so many boards that are scary to 22-66.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we can safely play this for set value and check/fold if we miss.

[MrWookie47]

We have to make up more than that. Our set won't always win. And set (or whatever) over set will be quite expensive.

folds...villain's first raise in 60 hands??

Assuming the other 2 come, this is getting only 4:1 (6:1.5), not good enough for hitting set. Your position is ideal for isolating pfr, but still 4:1.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
We have to make up more than that. Our set won't always win. And set (or whatever) over set will be quite expensive.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's also not very likely that 2 loose players are going to just give up on the flop either. Against 3 opponents at least 1 of them is going to have something and we know the passive one has something.

We should be plan to make an extra BB or so to cover the small chance of set over set every X hands. I would still argue that this is a profitable situation.

We will also make more when an opponent makes a strong hand like 2 pair and the passive player calls along with his overpair.

[aargh57]

Ok, thanks for all the replies. I did fold here but was second guessing myself when the third 4 dropped. Button did have AA and it was the only hand he raised with in over 100 hands. The only reason I thought about it is that BB and 1st limper would both probably call but Wookie made a good point that sometimes you'll be up against an overset when you make yours. Thanks.