Raised family pot, JJ

[soko]

You can probally tell from the PF action that it's a loose table, looking for general advice, should I fear a check raise on the turn enough to not bet? I went for overcalls on the river.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (18.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (18.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: 20.25 BB

[BigBrother]

I bet this turn. 4 opps and you need to charge a lone A, K, or Qd to draw in this large pot. No free cards in huge pots!

After you cap the flop, if you are c/r'd on the turn it at least tells you something. What would your villain c/r'ing you with on the turn here? Quite possibly a a FD, sure, but make him prove it (and some passives won't raise a flush when the board pairs anyway).

Raise the river. If you were good enough to cap the flop, you are good enough to raise the river. You are only beat by an 8 (very unlikely given the flop action unles he 3-bet with 2pr), an overpair (very unlikely given the pf limp), or TT (oh well).

Edit: OK since you have 4 opps on the river I like going for overcalls. But bet that turn.

[AaronS]

Interesting hand... I like your line. With 4 opponents putting in 4 bets on that flop, it's hard to imagine someone didn't turn a flush or trips. I think the free card is good here, b/c you have 4 outs against a flush, and 2 against trip 8's. I also like the river call, to get the flushes to make a desperate call in this large pot.

[Nick C]

I'm not used to tables that are this loose anymore, but I sure don't like that turn card very much. Aside from that, UTG+2 likes his hand enough on the flop that I'm somewhat concerned that he might have flopped a set.

Anyway, the turn card is scary enough card that some people might now actually fold their A /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, which is good for you if you happen to be ahead and the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif isn't out there anyway.

I'm not really sure what you should do. I would probably bet, pretty much expecting to get checkraised.

[lautzutao]

You have to raise that river. I also think betting the turn is correct. You can't give a free card to someone with 1 diamond. Risk the Check Raise.

As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed. Tables this loose are going to call 2 bets if they're acting after you, so raise it up.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't want to raise because you fear the 8 or TT...? Seems a little MUBSy doesn't it? Maybe the overcall route is correct, but certainly not because villian's betting out with a cinch.

[crazygoose]

You have to bet that turn. Villain could have T4 and you just got saved. Since the table is soo loose it doesnt gaurantee the flush draw. Bet/call a cr b/c you are getting odds to hit the full house. nice pot.

[W. Deranged]

/images/graemlins/crazy.gif I'm not likin' this too much...

Sure, it would be very unfortunate to get check-raised here by someone who just made trips, but playing poker in fear of what our opponents might do (as opposed to making more complete, probabilitistic assessments of what is likely to happen and what is best for us) is going to cost us a lot of money in the long-run.

As per my usual style, I'll provide some reasons why I prefer a turn bet here:

1. You might have the best hand.

2. You have a hand that is very vulnerable. Though many opponents might not fold due to pot size, it is better to bet and give 1 overcard or underpair type hands the chance to fold rather than to draw for free. Some opponents may even may fundamental theorem mistakes by folding.

3. Because of the large pot size and the large field, when you are ahead you are going to get a lot of calls and are going to generally make quite a bit on this bet. Opponents will call you with tons of hands, including hands like A4, 77, QJ, and so on. Many opponents will be correct in calling (in fact, most everyone will be), but that does not mean you are not making money on those bets when ahead.

3. The 8 is definitely not the worst card in the deck for you. Many overcards are probably more likely to have hit an opponent. Someone may have completed a flush here, but opponents may well be on any number of other draws instead. The 8, quite usefully, gives us extra redraws against a flush as well. (We do note that we may be drawing nearly dead to both an 8 and a flush, but that will be pretty rare).


The tough thing here is that we pretty much have to call a check-raise here. We have 2 set outs which are almost enough on their own to merit a call, and the 8s may be good for us as well. I think the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is worth maybe like 1 out, but I'm not planning on putting any significant amount in on the river if a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits and others get excited. The thing is, though, that the premium we are getting on our bet (people are calling with many worse hands here because of pot size) and the potential upside to a bet in a huge pot (maybe getting opponents to fold very marginal hands that have a few outs against us), seems to merit a bet here, and outweighs the price we will sometimes have to pay if we get check-raised.

Basically, this is a case where I don't live in fear of getting check-raised. I rather live in fear of the opponent holding K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif or something similarly ridiculous who might wise up and fold the turn if we bet and not hit his K on the river. In a big pot, I simply much prefer erring on the side of aggression if I have any reasonable chance of having the best hand.

As for the river, I think you should proably raise. MP1 might have missed a check-raise, but you are basically only losing to a few unlikely hands now (the case 8, a very unlikely overpair, and TT). MP1 might very well be betting a T or even a worse pair figuring no one had much of anything legit after the turn check. He may be even betting a flush or something bizarre like that. Players behind you holding Ts will have a very hard time not overcalling here, so I think in general you generate more value with a raise. Getting three-bet would be unfortunate, but I think even in a reasonable amount of the time that happens, you are only up against a T or something like that, and so I'm happy to call a three-bet.

Not betting this turn is a pretty substantial mistake IMO. I actually like going for overcalls on the river with 3 players left to act.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't want to raise because you fear the 8 or TT...? Seems a little MUBSy doesn't it? Maybe the overcall route is correct, but certainly not because villian's betting out with a cinch.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT doesn't seem all that likely to me, though there is some chance Villain didn't raise with it preflop and then slowplayed the flop.

I'm more worried about an 8. I'm certainly not saying Villain definitely has quads, but it's possible. There are 44 available combinations of hands that contain an 8. I doubt Villain is playing all of those combinations, but at a table this loose, I wouldn't be surprised if he's playing about half of them. A8, K8, and 98 is 12 combos; throw in some some suited one- and two-gappers and Q8s and 87o and we're up to about 20 combos.

Anyway, though, once the turn checks through, Villain might bet out on the river with a lot of different full houses, so I think there's a good chance we're best. But I like going for overcalls here, even though we didn't get any this time.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't want to raise because you fear the 8 or TT...? Seems a little MUBSy doesn't it? Maybe the overcall route is correct, but certainly not because villian's betting out with a cinch.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT doesn't seem all that likely to me, though there is some chance Villain didn't raise with it preflop and then slowplayed the flop.

I'm more worried about an 8. I'm certainly not saying Villain definitely has quads, but it's possible. There are 44 available combinations of hands that contain an 8. I doubt Villain is playing all of those combinations, but at a table this loose, I wouldn't be surprised if he's playing about half of them. A8, K8, and 98 is 12 combos; throw in some some suited one- and two-gappers and Q8s and 87o and we're up to about 20 combos.

Anyway, though, once the turn checks through, Villain might bet out on the river with a lot of different full houses, so I think there's a good chance we're best. But I like going for overcalls here, even though we didn't get any this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick,

I think that in general because the pot is multiway, it's huge, and there are plenty of obvious hands our opponents behind us almost have to (in their minds) call two cold with (basically an T, maybe a good flush, many pairs, and so on), the extra value we are going to get out of a raise in my opinion more than compensates the loss from when we're up against quads. In general, we are risking 3 BB to win something like 5 on average, and I think we are ahead enough to do this. If we go for overcalls, we risk a big more than 1 to maybe win 3 BB, meaning we have to be ahead less often, but we lose value when we miss.

Imagine we can say we are ahead 75% of the time. In that case, our expectation on a raise (assuming we'll always get three-bet when behind) is going to be .75(5) - .25 (3) = 3 BB. Our expectation on a call is going to be .75 (3) -.25(1) = 2 BB. This is a fairly simplified (and stylized) approach, but I think it's a useful way to think about the problem.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that in general because the pot is multiway, it's huge, and there are plenty of obvious hands our opponents behind us almost have to (in their minds) call two cold with (basically an T, maybe a good flush, many pairs, and so on), the extra value we are going to get out of a raise in my opinion more than compensates the loss from when we're up against quads. In general, we are risking 3 BB to win something like 5 on average, and I think we are ahead enough to do this. If we go for overcalls, we risk a big more than 1 to maybe win 3 BB, meaning we have to be ahead less often, but we lose value when we miss.

Imagine we can say we are ahead 75% of the time. In that case, our expectation on a raise (assuming we'll always get three-bet when behind) is going to be .75(5) - .25 (3) = 3 BB. Our expectation on a call is going to be .75 (3) -.25(1) = 2 BB. This is a fairly simplified (and stylized) approach, but I think it's a useful way to think about the problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

When it gets checked all the way to MP1, I think the chances that anyone holds a ten goes down a bit. Still, I agree that a ten is probably calling two cold, especially at this table.

Maybe a raise is best. I don't know.

It's really hard putting anyone on a hand. I mean, in particular, try putting UTG+2 on a hand. What the hell did he have? J9? 97? 76? I guess those are the most likely candidates. Or maybe he whiffed on a turn checkraise and then folded a flush on the river (but I can see the whiff a lot more easily than I can see the fold, at this table).

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]

When it gets checked all the way to MP1, I think the chances that anyone holds a ten goes down a bit. Still, I agree that a ten is probably calling two cold, especially at this table.

Maybe a raise is best. I don't know.

It's really hard putting anyone on a hand. I mean, in particular, try putting UTG+2 on a hand. What the hell did he have? J9? 97? 76? I guess those are the most likely candidates. Or maybe he whiffed on a turn checkraise and then folded a flush on the river (but I can see the whiff a lot more easily than I can see the fold, at this table).

[/ QUOTE ]

In situations like this, with huge pots and many opponents, I often find it easiest to simply accept that some of my opponents are playing very, very odd things because they suck.