Shifting table dynamics and thin-slicing

This is something I rarely ever see mentioned here. I read so many times about players making assessments about the table they are at or about the players they are up against and then making decisions on that basis.

But what never seems to be factored into this equation is that at the same time that you are making these assessments, the other players at the table are doing likewise - at least some of them are.

How can a player account for these shifting dynamics? What is the best approach to considering that just as you might have made a decision that now is a good time to adjust your game to the table, someone else is doing exactly the same thing - which makes your previous assessment incorrect.

I see a certain scenario repeated here - where someone makes an assessment about a certain player, plays a hand according to that assessment, only to find that the player was not playing according to that assessment. Was the assessment wrong? Or did the player realize something and alter his play?

The challenge here is that it is common knowledge that once we make an initial impression about another person (or thing, for that matter), that impression tends to be very difficult to alter.

I have just finished reading Blink by Malcolm Gladwell - which is about thin-slicing and how our brains can make accurate decisions (or inaccurate, if we have flawed information) in a short time with limited analysis. Applying this to poker, I have noticed that the vast majority of my decisions do not require detailed analysis - I am able to just "feel" that a certain action is appropriate - that feeling is thin-slicing in action.

In this context, attempting to overly analyse a specific player's specific action can wind up being disasterous - especially if you are not taking into account that he is likely analysing his play as he goes as well.

This is much more of an issue in live games, where you mind is not only interpreting the poker action, but also all the subtleties of the player's body language - which may be impossible to dissect, but which your brain is very good at analysing on a subconscious level.

interesting question. i've been finding it hard to get great reads on people the few times i've played bricks-n-mortar. hard to concentrate that much and the people constantly change anyhow.

i need to read people better though as i think i'd like to play no-limit cash at niagara falls. i think it's more lucrative for us where we wait around for good cards. waiting around in limit is good too, but the pots are effectively limited.

one thing i'd be worry of is this: you see a guy who's weak and is getting run over. so you decide to run him over. but he's finally sick of being run over so he stands up to you. could be very costly.

i just know playing no-limit cash i'd be so freaked out raising a pair of 10's and a queen hits on flop. seems like alot of books say bet out and if you get raised lay it down, but i think that's so wimpy and negative EV... but that's a huge read needed right there.

hank, i find i'm pretty comfortable with the math and i play very well pre-flop and on flop. but i have to make more $$$$$ on turn/river (limit or no-limit, although obviously there often is no turn or river bettting in no-limit... but yao king, sklansky, harrington, hellmuth - all their books get to player reads pretty fast. miller SSHE isn't so read-intensive (if i recall correctly, it's more "don't fold good hand to big pot" and work those 1 card x 2 draw flush/overcard draws really hard).

hank, BTW, i want rafer back!!!

[jtr]

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i just know playing no-limit cash i'd be so freaked out raising a pair of 10's and a queen hits on flop. seems like alot of books say bet out and if you get raised lay it down, but i think that's so wimpy and negative EV...

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Are you sure it would be negative EV to lay down TT to a flop raise in that spot? Most games I've been in you'd be pretty safe. Are there a lot of maniacs in the Niagara games?

[Mike]

I try to have an idea what the player(s) are doing before I get involved with them in a hand. Generally people are not that sneaky. What you have seen them do in the four hands they played before they will generally do now.

If they do something different what did they do differently? Look at their watch, wife come and speak to them, friend show up, etc? Finally, their is there assessment of you or I. Same rules apply. We just have to be sneakier.

Most people are easy to figure out. All the above plus:

1. What quadrant is the minute hand of their watch in?

2. Is X,X their hand of the day, or just one of those cards?

3. Do they like big cards, straights, flushes, runner runner, small cards, big little?

It seems like a lot, but it's really not, you just have to keep paying attention to what people do. Bring a notebook if that helps, so you have info on them in the future.

This is one of the great things about B&M play. You know who loves weak Aces, who tightens up when the wife comes around to see how they are doing, who plays more aggressively when a friend shows up. Who has about lost their limit for the day. Who is tilting and who's having sympathy tilt pains.

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i just know playing no-limit cash i'd be so freaked out raising a pair of 10's and a queen hits on flop. seems like alot of books say bet out and if you get raised lay it down, but i think that's so wimpy and negative EV...

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you could be right it's just an example.... i just find alot of books and so forth are so conservative that they just assume that you're beaten if an overcard hits and a person raises you.

but my theory is that these crazies play no-limit just so they can bluff and put on gus hanson type plays. i mean that classic gus hanson stuff. represent the queen with position. maybe they'd do it more if you didn't bet out.

hard to say on the EV. you might be o.k. to call but then you have to worry about the next two streets as you are very unlikely to improve.... more i think about it, the raise is a problem, i was probably thinking checking and then someone betting behind you, but that's a horrible play.

interesting question. i've actually been wondering about a pair of 10's. every book says play them hard but if an overcard hits, it's tricky. a guy who hits overcard may just suck money out of you pretending he's weak (i.e calling station).

apparently, there are acres of lousy players no-limit niagara falls. don't know if weak or crazy. but if they're weak, i'd assume they'd prefer limit as they just call down stuff.



[/ QUOTE ] Are you sure it would be negative EV to lay down TT to a flop raise in that spot? Most games I've been in you'd be pretty safe. Are there a lot of maniacs in the Niagara games?

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sorry, the quote is at the bottom, not the top.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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i've been finding it hard to get great reads on people the few times i've played bricks-n-mortar. hard to concentrate that much and the people constantly change anyhow.

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Wow. That is interesting. Getting a feel for an unknown player is far easier for me in a live game than online... and the people change at a far slower pace in your typical live game compared to your typical online game. How much experience do you have playing live? It sounds like you are still adjusting to live play.

yeah, i'm new to bricks'n'mortar... in internet i can seem to keep track of who's loose etc. seems like the hands some so fast that you can pick up alot by concentrating for 5 minutes... B&M you really have to concentrate for 45 minutes to really pick up anything (cause it could be only 15 hands).... also, i sat on the end, partially obscured by dealer (thought at end you could see entire table (i read that), but i'm now almost certain you want to be right across from the dealer.

yeah, i have to get better at concentrating if i want to play alot of no-limit cash (looks alot more lucrative and i have little problem playing super-tight and watching position pre-flop). i think i need alot of work though in maximizing $$$$$ won on turn or river. i need to induce bluffs or just get a read that someone is going to bet..

had a maniac on my left last weekend and i bet out the river with the nuts. BAD, BAD MOVE!!!! as the maniac has the chips in his hand ready to bet and folded because i bet. how could i be so stupid??? ... with no maniac it would have been tougher call as to what's right as i might have checked and everyone does the same behind me.

[jtr]

SMChant, thanks for the reply. I know what you mean about the suspicion that someone could be making a Gus Hansen play on you (well, in their mind it's Hansen-like anyway). But even so, I think I just let the TT go there.