83s

[Trix]

UTG raise, very loose poster call, Sb call, I call 83cc in BB.

Flop 5d4c2c, pfr bets, they both call, I CR, pfr and poster call.

Turn 5s

SB checks, I check, I suck ?, pfr checks.

River 3, SB bets, I fold..

pfr is like 40/30 over 100 hands.
SB is like 40/16, so too loose, but generally passive.

[Stefan_K]

i fold preflop

first look at it i liked the turn check, but after some thinking i aggre that a bet would have been better

the river fold is standard

[sy_or_bust]

Preflop looks awful. You need much better odds.

Your flop action is weird - did SB call, or the very loose poster? Betting the turn is OK, but the only hand you're worried about is rare, something like K8, and a normal UTG doesn't have this hand while the poster isn't folding, and you can't expect a better hand to drop on the river when you don't improve.

The river fold is fine with the 4-wheel.

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
Your flop action is weird - did SB call, or the very loose poster?

[/ QUOTE ]
Both.

Were you always Scott Y. ?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop looks awful. You need much better odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you know the odds of flopping a flush draw?

Krishan

[krishanleong]

5 is the perfect card to follow up on the turn with. River fold is the only choice.

Krishan

[7ontheline]

I don't understand people who want to fold preflop. 7:1 in great position right before the PFR. I kinda like your line, pumping your draw on the flop since they all called and buying yourself a free turn. I think a turn bet isn't going to accomplish much - at that point your equity probably isn't good enough with only a draw, especially since your bet might fold some players.

[spydog]

Trix,

I don't like your flop play. I would only be checkraise semibluffing when I think I have a decent chance of taking the pot down with a follow-up turn bet. However, when the flop gives any Ace a wheel draw then I think you must realize that this hand is going to the river, so you might as well play passively and draw as cheaply as possible. I check-call unless I improve. The river fold looks good.

Despite the fact that I play the flop differently, I don't think your CR is a bad play and if you checkraise that flop then I think you need to check the turn like you did.

[Trix]

You dont think I can raise the flop for value ?

[Derek123]

I know preflop discussions arent interesting, but is 7-1 really enough to call with any two suited?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I know preflop discussions arent interesting, but is 7-1 really enough to call with any two suited?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you know the odds of flopping a flush draw? And I'm not trying to be a jerk. If you don't know, you really should. Knowing it is basically 3/4 of the way to deciding whether preflop is correct.

Krishan

[ghostface]

5-1? Same as a set.

[Victor]

i play it the same way. i suppose you are wondering if you should be the turn. well, no one folds a pair or ace or 6 on this turn. its questionable whether they fold hands like kq and j10. thats a lot of hands that are calling.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
5-1? Same as a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, you aren't 5-1 to hit a set with a PP. It's 7-1.

To hit a 4 flush you are 8-1.

Krishan

[Entity]

I play it the same Trix.

[Argus]

I think it's important to bet the turn. You have a four flush, and an OESD, and an overcard that could actually be good on this board. When the top card pairs, you get a good chance to take down the pot unimproved. Even a single player folding is good since it sets up a potentially profitable river bluff (if these players aren't savvy enough to take A-high to showdown). If both players call it is about EV neutral considering your huge number of outs, while disguising your hand. The worst case scenario is that PFR raises you and forces out the third player, but I think the rewards are worth the risk here.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
I know preflop discussions arent interesting, but is 7-1 really enough to call with any two suited?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. It is way more than enough in my opinion. I have been calling with any two suited in the BB for one bet regardless of the number of opponents for over 150K hands now. That means I am often only getting around 3.5 to 1. Granted that you never have enough sample size to know, my results indicate that the absolute worst suited hands are a toss up and for all the rest defending is clearly better than folding.

Cartman

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you know the odds of flopping a flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]
Is there some sort of prize they are handing out now for flopping baby flush draws? A cookie or something? Because if they're not, then this line of reasoning doesn't impress me since a four-card flush doesn't even beat one pair according to my table of poker hand rankings. C'mon dude, you have EIGHT THREE.

[BongRips]

Perfect.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you know the odds of flopping a flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]
Is there some sort of prize they are handing out now for flopping baby flush draws? A cookie or something? Because if they're not, then this line of reasoning doesn't impress me since a four-card flush doesn't even beat one pair according to my table of poker hand rankings. C'mon dude, you have EIGHT THREE.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not thinking clearly. It's a draw that pays for itself. The question you need to ask yourself is is flopping a draw that PAYS FOR ITSELF worth it when I flop it 1-8 and the pot offers me 1-7.

Krishan

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
The question you need to ask yourself is is flopping a draw that PAYS FOR ITSELF worth it when I flop it 1-8 and the pot offers me 1-7.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what "pays for itself" means, but the thinking here seems very fuzzy. You are "drawing to a draw" which is not a winning hand. Heck, even the eight-high flush you are hoping to make might not be a winning hand.

Here is an analogous situation. The cutoff and button limp, the small blind completes and I check 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif3/images/graemlins/heart.gif in the big blind. The flop is 9/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif. It's checked to the cutoff who bets and it folds back to me. The pot is offering me 5:1 and roughly a fifth of the time the turn card will give me a flush draw. If I pick up a flush draw, that will be a profitable situation. So you would recommend calling here since the flush draw will be profitable and I am "getting odds to draw to it"? This really doesn't make sense.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The question you need to ask yourself is is flopping a draw that PAYS FOR ITSELF worth it when I flop it 1-8 and the pot offers me 1-7.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what "pays for itself" means, but the thinking here seems very fuzzy. You are "drawing to a draw" which is not a winning hand. Heck, even the eight-high flush you are hoping to make might not be a winning hand.

Here is an analogous situation. The cutoff and button limp, the small blind completes and I check 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif3/images/graemlins/heart.gif in the big blind. The flop is 9/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif. It's checked to the cutoff who bets and it folds back to me. The pot is offering me 5:1 and roughly a fifth of the time the turn card will give me a flush draw. If I pick up a flush draw, that will be a profitable situation. So you would recommend calling here since the flush draw will be profitable and I am "getting odds to draw to it"? This really doesn't make sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

By pay for itself all I mean is futher bets are subsidized by your pot equity. So those extra bets are not really a cost so to speak.

Why do we say we need to make up bets when we flop a set. That's because we know the exact odds of hitting a set and it's easy to figure out how many bets we need to make up on each hand.

Now we can do the same thing with flush draws except it's more difficult to figure out the EV since we don't win the hand. We just have to estimate how much we win.

What I do know is that flush draws are profitable in almost every situation. So what do you think the EV of each flush draw is? 1 SB? 2 SB? 5 SB? I'd guess it's around 4 SB. You get a lot of implied odds generally. I just looked in my database and I win about 5 BB with each flush.

Therefore if we win on average 5 BB with each flush. Each draw is worth about 5/3 BB. We are getting 8-1 odds to flop the draw but we win 3.33 SB each time we actually flop a flush draw. For a tidy profit of 1.33 SB.

I'm pretty tired so some of this could be wrong. I'll try and correct any mistakes you see.

Krishan

[baronzeus]

bobby,

peter_rus did blind defense tests where he called with any 2 suited in the BB for 3+ players seeing the flop. he found 3 players (5:1) slightly +EV, 4 players (7:1) very +EV, and 5 players (9:1) less +EV than 4 but still +EV.

[bobbyi]

I've seen peter_rus's claims about blind defense. Needless to say, I don't agree with him in all situations.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen peter_rus's claims about blind defense. Needless to say, I don't agree with him in all situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, me neither. His work on getting 5-1 was shoddy.

Krishan

[Peter_rus]

Hello ,

Instead of debating of why my work was shoddy - i'll answer you with calculations, that assume your 1.33SB gain from flush-draw.

So it's 3-way and we have 5-1 with our 3-8 in our BB.
0.84% we will hit complete flush. We will win 3BB's.

3.47% we will have two pairs/trips. We will win in average 2.5BB with such holdings.

10.94% we will hit 4-flush to net 0.66BB's as you said

28.85% we will hit a pair to net -0.3BB's

1.6% we will hit 245,456,567,679,79T to net -0.1BB

54.3% we will hit nothing to get -0.99BB (occasional checking out the flop and hitting on turn or river)

If we add 0.84*3+3.47*2.5+10.94*0.66-28.85*-0.3-1.6*0.1-54.3*0.99=-44.16BB. It's -0.442bb/hand and it's higher than -0.5BB/h if we just fold.


Btw: You can agree or disagree with me. But saying someone's work is shoddy without any meaningfull reasons isn't way good in meta-game purposes at least for such somewhat respectfull poster as you are.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello ,

Instead of debating of why my work was shoddy - i'll answer you with calculations, that assume your 1.33SB gain from flush-draw.

So it's 3-way and we have 5-1 with our 3-8 in our BB.
0.84% we will hit complete flush. We will win 3BB's.

3.47% we will have two pairs/trips. We will win in average 2.5BB with such holdings.

10.94% we will hit 4-flush to net 0.66BB's as you said

28.85% we will hit a pair to net -0.3BB's

1.6% we will hit 245,456,567,679,79T to net -0.1BB

54.3% we will hit nothing to get -0.99BB (occasional checking out the flop and hitting on turn or river)

If we add 0.84*3+3.47*2.5+10.94*0.66-28.85*-0.3-1.6*0.1-54.3*0.99=-44.16BB. It's -0.442bb/hand and it's higher than -0.5BB/h if we just fold.


Btw: You can agree or disagree with me. But saying someone's work is shoddy without any meaningfull reasons isn't way good in meta-game purposes at least for such somewhat respectfull poster as you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant no offense and I apologise for the wording above. You are a hell of a player and theorist and I respect the time and energy you have given to the forums.

When you did your 5-1 calculations you grouped all the hands together. As I remember there were hands like K3s all the way to 43s. I think the analysis was a little flawed simply because some of the hands with high card power might have been carrying some of the weaker hands in terms of EV. For instance if you group all suited combinations together you would get a skewed view because hands like AKs or KQs are obviously profitable. Just because the group as a whole performs well doesn't mean each member of the group is +EV. If you can point me in the direction of your post (or repost it here) I can elaborate further on the hands I don't believe you have proven are +EV getting 5-1.

For what it's worth, I'm looser in the blinds with suited hands that most HUSHers due in part to the analysis you've done.

The analysis you have provided is very nice. I think this is the only calculation that might be off. All the other estimates look solid but I'm not sure about this one.

[ QUOTE ]

28.85% we will hit a pair to net -0.3BB's

[/ QUOTE ]

It's just tough for me to estimate. Clearly it depends a large part on the skill of the player. I don't disagree, I just can't come up with a number on my own.

Krishan

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
For instance if you group all suited combinations together you would get a skewed view because hands like AKs or KQs are obviously profitable. Just because the group as a whole performs well doesn't mean each member of the group is +EV. If you can point me in the direction of your post (or repost it here) I can elaborate further on the hands I don't believe you have proven are +EV getting 5-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

No need to elaborate. My results are just my results, which don't show anything. I used to defend any suited after i come to the need of this after made calculations above.

Calculations were based on overall profitability of all 3-way BB hands in a raised pot in terms of flop holdings. Some of them i counted after posting this http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/show...rue#Post1722923 (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=mediumholdem&Number=1 722923&Searchpage=1&Main=1722923&Words=blinds+Pete r_rus&topic=&Search=true#Post1722923)

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to defend any suited after i come to the need of this after made calculations above.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Peter,

I defended with any two suited regardless of the number of players in the pot and the position of the raiser for my last 150K hands of 5/10 (even heads up). My results indicate that even the very worst "families" of hands perform no worse than the -.50BB that we lose by folding, and all the rest perform better. The group about which I am uncertain are those that yielded almost exactly the same -.50BB that I would have lost by folding them. This group includes all suited hands that contain a 2, 3, or 4 except for A2s, A3s, and A4s. They have collectively lost -.51BB. I am curious whether these are the hands that you expect to be the weakest performers.

Since I certainly don't consider myself an expert at postflop play from the blinds, I am continuing to play these "toss up" hands because I hope that as I continue to improve in this area that the results for these hands will climb into profitable territory as well.

I have a few questions for you:

1) Did you also defend with any two suited when there was no one else in the pot besides the raiser (it will be heads up) and what is your opinion on defending with them heads up?

2) As I progress to higher limits, the impact of the rake and the blind structure will become more favorable to looser defense standards, but the increased ability of my opponents will encourage tighter play. Which of these forces, if either, prevails over the other?

3) What is your current opinion about defending with these trashy suited hands as the limits move higher: 10/20, 15/30, 20/40, 30/60?

Thanks,
Cartman

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
You dont think I can raise the flop for value ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think UTG will 3-bet most, if not all, overpairs on this flop. When he does, the other 2 players will be confronted with 2 cold and it's likely that 1 or both of them will fold, which negates any value you got from your checkraise.

I'm surprised everyone loves the flop CR. I don't hate it, but I just don't think it's a great spot to value raise your draw.

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The question you need to ask yourself is is flopping a draw that PAYS FOR ITSELF worth it when I flop it 1-8 and the pot offers me 1-7.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what "pays for itself" means, but the thinking here seems very fuzzy. You are "drawing to a draw" which is not a winning hand. Heck, even the eight-high flush you are hoping to make might not be a winning hand.

Here is an analogous situation. The cutoff and button limp, the small blind completes and I check 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif3/images/graemlins/heart.gif in the big blind. The flop is 9/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif. It's checked to the cutoff who bets and it folds back to me. The pot is offering me 5:1 and roughly a fifth of the time the turn card will give me a flush draw. If I pick up a flush draw, that will be a profitable situation. So you would recommend calling here since the flush draw will be profitable and I am "getting odds to draw to it"? This really doesn't make sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

By pay for itself all I mean is futher bets are subsidized by your pot equity. So those extra bets are not really a cost so to speak.

Why do we say we need to make up bets when we flop a set. That's because we know the exact odds of hitting a set and it's easy to figure out how many bets we need to make up on each hand.

Now we can do the same thing with flush draws except it's more difficult to figure out the EV since we don't win the hand. We just have to estimate how much we win.

What I do know is that flush draws are profitable in almost every situation. So what do you think the EV of each flush draw is? 1 SB? 2 SB? 5 SB? I'd guess it's around 4 SB. You get a lot of implied odds generally. I just looked in my database and I win about 5 BB with each flush.

Therefore if we win on average 5 BB with each flush. Each draw is worth about 5/3 BB. We are getting 8-1 odds to flop the draw but we win 3.33 SB each time we actually flop a flush draw. For a tidy profit of 1.33 SB.

I'm pretty tired so some of this could be wrong. I'll try and correct any mistakes you see.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your EV calcs are neglecting the times that:
1) your flush gets there and loses
2) you get strung along with a hand like bottom pair and a BD flush draw.

I also think that in the more marginal scenarios, you need to look at effective odds. Part of the reason you have odds to draw to a flush on the flop is because you called preflop.

I'm going to run a TTH sim on this and post what I find. I'll use 83s, raised pot, BB, 3 other players in the pot.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

1) your flush gets there and loses

[/ QUOTE ]

This is at least partially taken into account by the 5 BB per flush since that include hands that lose at showdown. It's not a very big consideration.

Krishan

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
I am curious whether these are the hands that you expect to be the weakest performers.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ QUOTE ]
1) Did you also defend with any two suited when there was no one else in the pot besides the raiser (it will be heads up) and what is your opinion on defending with them heads up?


[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's quite probably my leak.

[ QUOTE ]
2) As I progress to higher limits, the impact of the rake and the blind structure will become more favorable to looser defense standards, but the increased ability of my opponents will encourage tighter play. Which of these forces, if either, prevails over the other?

[/ QUOTE ]

Players mean more for me.

[ QUOTE ]
3) What is your current opinion about defending with these trashy suited hands as the limits move higher: 10/20, 15/30, 20/40, 30/60?

[/ QUOTE ]

I defend any cards i defend 2-way - 3-way. I do not defend any2 against steal.

[sthief09]

pumping flush draws is so last year /images/graemlins/tongue.gif but seriously, the problem with ti here is while you'd like some extra money in the pot, you'd HATE HATE HATE to make anyone fold with such a big draw. those big bets when they're drawing, or drawing dead, are a lot more valuable than the half a small bet in equity you gain by building a pot. and when he doesn't 3-bet, you end up with the lead, which is something you don't want. if you miss, you'll have to check and announce that you have a flush draw. if you hit, you'll lose your opportunity to checkraise since there's no guarantee anyone will bet.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I defend any cards i defend 2-way - 3-way.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think this might be a mistake. while I have nothing to back this up, and am not even sure how to utilize this theory, but there are some hands that play much better 3 way and vice versa. the hand that comes to mind for me is A2o. headsup it is an ok hand to defend with because you can go to showdown on some favorable boards. 3 ways the likelihood that you get to showdown with A high AND it's good are minimal. the other problem is 3-way, if neither player has an A and you flop one, they will both be suspicious that one of the other players has one, and you won't get much action unless you're drawing to 3 outs. I think this probably goes for most of the weaker offsuit aces. when you don't hit, they're no good. when they do hit, you get no action or you find out a few bets later they're no good

[donger]

OK, i ran a simple TTH sim. Calling a raise from the BB with 83s in an average-aggro game with three other players in the pot was -1.05 SB of EV. For compairson, folding your BB is -1 SB. The sim was a 6-handed, PP 5/10 style raked game, with the 6h adviser manning the helm. He plays reasonably well postflop.

This is a computer simulation, but it's close enough to show that calling there getting 7:1 isn't exactly a slam dunk, it's neutral or slightly positive at best.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, i ran a simple TTH sim. Calling a raise from the BB with 83s in an average-aggro game with three other players in the pot was -1.05 SB of EV. For compairson, folding your BB is -1 SB. The sim was a 6-handed, PP 5/10 style raked game, with the 6h adviser manning the helm. He plays reasonably well postflop.

This is a computer simulation, but it's close enough to show that calling there getting 7:1 isn't exactly a slam dunk, it's neutral or slightly positive at best.

[/ QUOTE ]


TTH is awesome. I need to get an updated copy because my disc broke. good work sir. that's probably pretty accurate