Question about downswings

Basically what I want to ask is how downswings work. I am pretty new to internet poker(started playing in August) and I like to think I am catching on pretty quickly, because I am understanding all of the concepts discussed on the forum and in SSHE. I play .5/1 and I am on about a $160 downswing. How do I tell if this is a downswing or if I'm just a bad player? When does it change from a downswing to a leak? I try to play tight aggressive and protect my top pairs and strong draws, but it seems like this is costing me money. I could be wrong though.... and I could just be bitter because I lost to four of a kind 4 times last night in 20 minutes. I'll stop rambling, but any advise would be appreciated.

That's a pretty sizeable (160 BB) downswing, so you should investigate what the cause is...could be variance, could be you've played poorly. Post some hands, start by posting your top pair hands to see if you've overplayed them or missed some value bets (more likely).

[NateDog]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically what I want to ask is how downswings work. I am pretty new to internet poker(started playing in August) and I like to think I am catching on pretty quickly, because I am understanding all of the concepts discussed on the forum and in SSHE. I play .5/1 and I am on about a $160 downswing. How do I tell if this is a downswing or if I'm just a bad player? When does it change from a downswing to a leak? I try to play tight aggressive and protect my top pairs and strong draws, but it seems like this is costing me money. I could be wrong though.... and I could just be bitter because I lost to four of a kind 4 times last night in 20 minutes. I'll stop rambling, but any advise would be appreciated.

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Take a break, cut back on tables, read a book. If it's variance, it'll correct itself over time. 4 quads in 20 minutes just sounds like variance. But $160 at .5/1 is tough to do. What worries me is that [ QUOTE ]
I am understanding all of the concepts discussed on the forum and in SSHE

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats pretty bold. You may grasp them, but could be mis-applying them. Post hands, ask questions.

Good luck

[WalkAmongUs]

[quote[ QUOTE ]
I am understanding all of the concepts discussed on the forum and in SSHE

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats pretty bold. You may grasp them, but could be mis-applying them. Post hands, ask questions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely. I understood everything after reading SSH a couple times. But man was I good at mis-applying it. Also, take a look at how your playing overcards that whiff on the flop. This was one of my leaks.

Are you betting unimproved AK into 4 or 5 players? Thats USUALLY a no-no.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, take a look at how your playing overcards that whiff on the flop. This was one of my leaks.

Are you betting unimproved AK into 4 or 5 players? Thats USUALLY a no-no.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I would bet AK into 4 or 5 players unless the board is all of one suit or showing an OESD or something like that. Also if another player is showing a lot of strength I may fold. I'm assuming that the pot has either been raised or reraised preflop, so it is large and worth seeing the turn and possibly a free river depending on my position. I could be wrong though.
when holding any overcards, i usually look at the pot to decide whether i bet, C/R or fold

If you started in August and are playing at .50/1 I'd say move down to .10/.20 and make sure you learn all the basics before moving up. Some learns faster than others though , so I coul dbe wrong.

[PJM1206]

I would like to get a feel for sizes of down swings that could be considered within noraml ranges if there is such a thing.

160BB down swing is bad? Yipes.... I am approaching a 300BB down swing. I was winning at around 1+BB over 70K hands at the $1-2 tables and since September I have been living a night mare. My sets loose to higher sets, my full hosues loose to better full houses and my nut Ace high flsuhes loose to... yes the str8 flush. I have posted a number of hands here and in most cases get the I would have played the same way generally.

I know that some of my loss is asscoaited with bad play as some of these bad beats will get me doing things I may not normally do in terms of taking more risks and gambling more but I reign that in as best I can once I see it.

Fortunately for me this is not my source of income. I play as a hobby but hate loosing at anything I do.

Although I think my current performance is variance I obviously have my doubts. The dilema is that when I go back and look at each session it typically comes down to 3 or 4 hands ( 100 - 150 hands )that make or break my session.


Here's my point or question although 160BB downswing is not good I assume others have had worse but I would like to get a feel for sizes of down swings that could be considered with noramll ranges if there is such a thing. Should I being jumping off the roof? I am ok with my 300BB loss so far but..... maybe I shouldnt be.

[MrWookie47]

Here's a large collection of classic threads on downswings and variance. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=micro&Number=3653674&fpar t=1&PHPSESSID=)

I feel your pain on this one. Not been playing online for long but moved to $1/2 pretty rapidly and now currently on about a 160BB downswing there. I read these forums pretty religiously, have digested SSHE having read it three times (and believe I apply the principles well), working through HPFAP, check at least the 10 biggest winners and losers after every session to see where I could/should have maybe changed things and have adjusted accordingly. VPSIP is 17% and I feel I've been a little loose at times (say, using the "loose" chart on occasion rather than the "tight" chart in SSHE sort of equivalent, rather than what I believe would be poor play), while PFR has been under 6% - there's been no room for more to be honest. I don't see MANY leaks (folding to steals was a reasonable leak which I've worked on a fair bit, for example) and am well aware of a number of bad beats I've had (just two days ago two people hit their 2 outers on the river against me in the space of 20 minutes, and like you have see set over set, and so on) but I admit it's also my play - I reckon the downswing should have been nearer 100BB at most (I really have been running badly, though it's only over 5k hands or so).

It's comforting to see no doubt better players than I on downswings but of course I'd rather it didn't happen. period. Still, swings and roundabouts. I still have the Bankroll for $1/2 and I happy playing at that and $0.50/1 (if bonuses clear at that level) for the time being until I see positive numbers over many thousands of hands.

Patience is a virtue of mine I'm trying to keep in check.



Only thing I really want to start doing over my current play and studying is posting hand histories here now.

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a large collection of classic threads on downswings and variance. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=micro&Number=3653674&fpar t=1&PHPSESSID=)

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks - most useful.

[PJM1206]

Hey Mr Wookie thanks for the threads -- they were great. I can now cheerfully look forward to hitting the 650BB down swing --- Thanks!

The threads were great.

Thanks

[PJM1206]

PPS Mr Wookie I should give you my playing name and site so you can enjoy some of my downswing but then again maybe not

I am on a 120BB downswing over 1200 hands. It is really bumming me out. I know I have been red-hot, so it is kind of a reality check. This is bothering me because of the steep slope. I have been reviewing my hands and trying to figure out any problems. Am I playing my /good/ hands too aggressively, when other possibilities are on the board? I tend to shutdown, and wonder if I should be showing down less hands. I have not found specific hands to post, as I don't want to seem results oriented. It's just a matter of figuring out when I know I'm beat. Here's an e.g.--Today, I made a set of 6's on the flop and played it aggressively on the flop & turn. Villain picked up his aggression on the turn--the river paired the board & so I 3-bet. He capped, making runner runner higher boat. It was a major downer. I'm seeing these a lot. Bah, nobody wants to hear bad beat stories, so I'll leave it!



http://home.pacbell.net/piersol/downswing3_640x391.jpg

[milesdyson]

i accidentally sat at a 100/200 table with almost my entire bankroll last night and lost it all in one hand with AA. i was drunk so i didn't realize i sat at the damn table.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
i accidentally sat at a 100/200 table with almost my entire bankroll last night and lost it all in one hand with AA. i was drunk so i didn't realize i sat at the damn table.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't tell if this is for real or if it's a milesism.

[ QUOTE ]
i accidentally sat at a 100/200 table with almost my entire bankroll last night and lost it all in one hand with AA. i was drunk so i didn't realize i sat at the damn table.

[/ QUOTE ]

I laff @ u, sir!

[MrWookie47]

1. Believe Miles when he says raise the flop.
2. Believe Miles when he says, "Yes, those are pictures of my room mates."
3. Those are really the only times you should believe him.

I'm a beginner. Recently I lost 60 BB in one night. Fortunately I was playing 0.10/0.20 and had plenty of bankroll for such a loss.

Instead of trying to forget it, I forced myself to go and write a short description of every hand in which I either lost or gained more than 1 SB...and there were a lot of them.

I'm still working on this analysis, but various things are starting to come clear that were not obvious at first blush. Most interesting to me in this case are some observations that are not merely about the play of the hand; they're more global:

1. I played for a long time at a table where there was a maniac (65/25/10). I stayed even after I had consciously realized I was baffled by the maniac and didn't feel like I could beat him. Not knowing how to play in that situation is perfectly excusable; I'm new at this, and it's something I need to learn. Continuing to play there after I realized it was foolish.

2. I played at a table with fewer than 6 players (on down to HU) for a long time after realizing I wasn't comfortable and needed to do more work before I tried this. Again, foolish.

3. I failed to take a long break (or even stop for the evening) after making a bad fold on a fairly strong hand with a large pot. I am a pretty unemotional guy and I don't have much money at stake in these penny games. But I still want to win. Nobody is immune from going on tilt.

4. I multitabled 2 tables for a while when I should not have. Since then I have gone back to playing just a single table, at least for a while. It's amazing how much more I am picking up about the other players.

5. Miles' losing his entire bankrole aside, I really did sit down at a higher-limit table, play 1 hand, and instantly lose the equivalent of 8 BB at my usual .1/.2 tables.

Finally, a careful analysis also shows the part of the loss that probably wasn't entirely my play. Toward the end of the evening, after I settled down, there was a surprising sequence of about 50 hands hands where I saw the flop 7 times. All 7 were essentially drawing hands. Each was a reasonable pot-equity draw on the turn and in some cases the river, and 7 times in a row I failed to draw out. I haven't worked it out in detail but I think the chance of this particular sequence of 7 drawing hands all failing to draw out is far less than 1%. This is called "variance". (Sure, I probably could have improved my play, maybe folded this one before the river or been more aggressive on that one and perhaps picked up the pot. But this sequence was essentially failure to draw out.)

The first moral of my story is yes, by all means post hands. But also look for the bigger patterns. Second, if you do careful and objective analysis, you really can find the times when it's really not you and sleep easily ignoring them.

$100 on black. D'oh!

Hey Miles, were you kidding about that? I hope so.

[checkmate36]

[ QUOTE ]
If you started in August and are playing at .50/1 I'd say move down to .10/.20 and make sure you learn all the basics before moving up. Some learns faster than others though , so I coul dbe wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

I just made this move and until I get the basics down Im not going any higher.

I'm not really worried about the money right now. I work so .5/1 isn't a big deal really. If I was trying to make money I'd be playing for more than that and dedicating more time. But I do want to get better and use the time I have for learning poker wisely. I guess what I'm going to do is stop four tabling and start posting hands containing top pair and overcards to see how I am doing. Thanks for all the help everybody