The Master Plan

[suited_ace]

Well, it's tough to make the right decision when your ass is on the line (and maybe that's why I'm still up @ 5 in the morning), so I thought I'd ask you guys for some advice...

I'll save you from the stupid details and go straight to the relevant info.

My goal for the next 2 months is to make ~$6000 playing poker. There's just one big caveat to my goal: my starting BR is $260. I'm OK w/ 4-tabling, have ~1600 STTs played @ PP.

Assuming that I can hit 30% ROI @ the $6s, 20% ROI @ the $11s and a 15% ROI @ the $22s (I have no idea how I'd run @ the $33s & $55s, I have very little tournies played at those levels), what would be your plan? Would you try 8-tabling in the middle of all this?

I did some very bad BR management in the past, and if there's something I learned from my own stupid mistakes is not to move up before having 50BI for the next level. I'm gonna start by 4-tabling the $6s @ Empire to get rakeback and I have a plan for the rest, but I really would like to know what would you do if you were in my shoes.

Thanks.

[splashpot]

If I were in your shoes, I'd just start at the 11s right away. But feeling comfortable with your bankroll is important, so move up when you are ready. By your ROI and bankroll numbers, we have:

6*(162 games)*(.3 ROI) = $290 profit
11*(250 games)*(.2 ROI) = $550 profit
22*(1485 games)*(.15 ROI) = $4900 profit

So to hit $6000, if you go straight by the averages, you'll play 1896 games. Over 2 months, that's about 31-32 games per day.

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
My goal for the next 2 months is to make ~$6000 playing poker. There's just one big caveat to my goal: my starting BR is $260. I'm OK w/ 4-tabling, have ~1600 STTs played @ PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

What can I say? Plan to play a lot of SNGs.

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming that I can hit 30% ROI @ the $6s, 20% ROI @ the $11s and a 15% ROI @ the $22s

[/ QUOTE ]

I would also not assume any of this, especially if this is based on past stats over:

[ QUOTE ]
~1600 STTs played @ PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how long it took to get that last 1600, but if it was any more than 1 month, expect the grind to hurt your future results. You are basically planning to play way more than that in the next two months and it is gonna suck. I also wouldn't assume this if you are planning on playing empire much.

I'd also probably start at the 10s, even with only 260

If forced, I'd bet against you succeeding.

Still, good luck.

Regards
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
31-32 games per day

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he'll need more than that, and there's no way I could do this playing every day.

(actually, there's no way I could do this. period. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif)

One other thing that the OP should maybe consider is allowing himself to more aggressively move up in stakes. ROR would still be very very low if he drops down in the face of a bad swing.

At very least, I might take my second thousand of profit and allocate that towards an independent 'move up' bankroll

this gives 30 buy-ins at the 33s. If you lose it, whatever, you are playing a lot of SNGs anyways. 7000 is a lot like 6000. If you win with it though! This all gets so much easier.

Regards
Brad S

[bawcerelli]

i'd stay at the 6's till the BR hit $400. then i'd 4-8 table the 11's, and jump to the 22's at a $700 to $800 BR.

[Jman28]

Is there a reason you need $6k in two months? If not, I say avoid 8 tabling until you can at least beat the 33s consistently 4 or less tabling. What you'll miss in $ in the next few months will be more than made up for by the $ you make later when you get to the 109s sooner since you learned the game better.

That was a horrible run-on sentence, but I like it, so that's what you get.

[suited_ace]

30 tournies a day as an average for the next 2 months would probably drive me insane. I'm more than comfortable with 20 / day (including breaks, days that life is more important than poker, etc).

I can play 40 tournies a day for about a week and after that I start really feeling the grind. I think 1200 tournies is a realistic number for 2 months.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd stay at the 6's till the BR hit $400. then i'd 4-8 table the 11's, and jump to the 22's at a $700 to $800 BR.

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds good

But I wouldn't play at Empire - not even if they gave me 50% rakeback.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
But I wouldn't play at Empire - not even if they gave me 50% rakeback.

[/ QUOTE ]

why not?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I learned from my own stupid mistakes is not to move up before having 50BI for the next level.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think at least 1000 at the level below with a 15% or better ROI (more or less depending on the BI level) is a much better indicator of whether to move up...but thats me. 50BIs can come from anywhere and are not alone indicative of your ability to beat the next level.

i.e. If I win an MTT, I am not moving up in my SNG level because I have 200 BIs...just as an example. Also many go on a heater for 200 SNGs and think theyre ready.

To op: If you have played the 33-55s over a long stretch and feel you can beat them, then I think your plan is fine...Of course I think money goals are stupid, but I'll leave that alone.

PS, If your plan is being in dire need of this money, then like others have said, ROR should take a back seat to pushing your profits...best of luck to you!

[suited_ace]

Yeah, there's a reason why I need $6k in two months, but the world will not come to its end if I don't succeed. If you're too curious about the reason, I can PM you. I don't think it's really relevant to the forum, though.

I still have lots of room for improvement as a poker player, so my options are also related to the fact that I want to be learning as I do this. I wish I had enough time to play some NL ring to improve my post-flop play, but I just don't right now.

My plan is to make my way back to the $22s ASAP and eventually move up to the $33s (I'll probably do that when I feel that I can have sustainable results at that level 4-tabling in sets. I would then proceed to 4-table continuously). This would make my goal of $6k almost impossible to reach, but I have one last trick in my sleeve: MTTs. I want to play at least 1 MTT per day during this period. Variance is huge there, but it also opens the possibility of hitting a big score.

It's not a *great* plan, but it's a plan. I'll let you know how it goes...

[bennies]

dam, I hoped noone would ask this since I'm talking out of my as.

I guess I'm under the impression that most folks who still play at the skins are: a) european sharks from eurobet, or: b) players experienced enough to know that rakeback exists.

That's a mean possy to pit oneself against...

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
dam, I hoped noone would ask this since I'm talking out of my as.

I guess I'm under the impression that most folks who still play at the skins are: a) european sharks from eurobet, or: b) players experienced enough to know that rakeback exists.

That's a mean possy to pit oneself against...

[/ QUOTE ]


Even @ the $6s and $11s?

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
dam, I hoped noone would ask this since I'm talking out of my as.

I guess I'm under the impression that most folks who still play at the skins are: a) european sharks from eurobet, or: b) players experienced enough to know that rakeback exists.

That's a mean possy to pit oneself against...

[/ QUOTE ]


Even @ the $6s and $11s?

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly have no idea. But since we know for certain that PP-people at these levels play like they're blindfolded...

edit: oops, no clever poker-jargon-joke intended...

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]
30 tournies a day as an average for the next 2 months would probably drive me insane. I'm more than comfortable with 20 / day (including breaks, days that life is more important than poker, etc).

I can play 40 tournies a day for about a week and after that I start really feeling the grind. I think 1200 tournies is a realistic number for 2 months.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you'll need to move higher than the $22s -- even playing 1200 22s, with nothing lower, you're looking at less than $4000 profit.

I'm going to assume right up front that you really need $6000 in 2 months, and that that's non-negotiable. I really think your best plan would be to re-check whether that's really the case, because it's a long shot and you'll quite possibly hate poker after what it takes to get there. I think your second-best plan would be to commit yourself to more than 1200 tournaments, because if you stick to that, you're going to have to take more risk than you're comfortable with to get to your goal.

That said:

I'd start at the $11s if I were you -- to have any significant chance of making this goal, you're going to need to move up quickly and perhaps accept a bit higher ROR than you might otherwise be comfortable with. Starting at the 6s subjects you to higher rake and is taking up time where you'd probably be more profitable at the 11s. You've still got 24 buyins, which gives you a pretty low ROR if your $11 ROI is really 20%. Similarly, you're going to have to move up again at what might be an uncomfortably low BR for the $22s and then the $33s.

I'd play at $11s until you hit 30 $22 buyins, $22s until you have 40 $33 buyins, and if you make it, $55s once you reach 60 buyins for that level.

That's 182 $11s and 200 $22s to get to the $33s. Assuming you can maintain a 12% ROI at the 33s (if you can't, stick with your 15% at the 22s), that's 496 more at the 33s, with you at $3300. If you can shift up to the $55s at 8% (probably optimistic, but again, if you can't do this, stick with the lower level, you're making more money), you'd need 614 more tournaments to hit $6000.

That's a total of 1492 tournaments to $6000, about 25/day, using very optimistic assumptions about your ROI as you move up and taking you to levels you're probably not comfortable with at a speed you're probably even less comfortable with. But unless you do all of those things, you have, frankly, no shot to make your goal barring an incredible heater.

You might improve your chances somewhat by increasing your number of tables; I'd recommend not jumping straight from 4 to 8, but you do want to start in on increasing tables from day one so that you can drop back to a more comfortable number when you move up in buy-in without throwing yourself too far off course of your goal.

But I'll repeat what I said at the beginning -- your wisest course, IMO, is to re-evaluate your goal.

[sng-sam]

I am in almost the exact same situation. After killing the 20s and 30s in August I have hit a MAJOR downswing worsened by some tilty play. I have about 200 BR and I need about 1500 by the end of November. Don't know if I'll make it but I think I can do it. I'm 2 tabling 11s now. ROR be damned I haven't made a deposit since Easter Sunday. If I have to make one before next Easter I'll be dissapointed but I have made alot of money this year at poker so I'll get over it.

Straight Flushes,

SAM

PS. Suited Ace PM me and we can support each other.

[citanul]

first thing you should do is double up the roll on party blackjack.

that's the first step to any good plan.

c

[sng-sam]

How the hell do you think I got into this mess? DUH!

Straight Flushes,

SAM

PS I got rid of the icons...

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
first thing you should do is double up the roll on party blackjack.

that's the first step to any good plan.

c

[/ QUOTE ]

The Raptor "Surefire way to bust my roll in one sitting" plan? It is, after all, his specialty, /images/graemlins/smirk.gif.

Yugoslav

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
To op: If you have played the 33-55s over a long stretch and feel you can beat them, then I think your plan is fine...Of course I think money goals are stupid, but I'll leave that alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fully aware that my $6k goal will be very, very hard to achieve. It's a personal choice, though. My whole life I tried doing stuff that I really shouldn't, and ended up doing great things by falling short of doing the impossible.

I have very few games played @ the $33s and $55s. I have no data to back me up here, but I think that I can beat the $33s 4-tabling, but my ROI wouldn't be very high. Going to the $55s would just be suicidal. My post-flop game needs to improve before I do that. My ITM game could use some work too.

[DeathbySuckout]

[ QUOTE ]
I am in almost the exact same situation. After killing the 20s and 30s in August I have hit a MAJOR downswing worsened by some tilty play. I have about 200 BR and I need about 1500 by the end of November. Don't know if I'll make it but I think I can do it. I'm 2 tabling 11s now. ROR be damned I haven't made a deposit since Easter Sunday. If I have to make one before next Easter I'll be dissapointed but I have made alot of money this year at poker so I'll get over it.

Straight Flushes,

SAM

PS. Suited Ace PM me and we can support each other.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly where I am at right now also. $200, 2 tabling the $11s, trying to make christmas money by Black Friday.

[pergesu]

I think pooh's point is that variance is a bitch, and it seems like it doesn't shine your way when you really need it. You can play the absolute best poker of your life over the next two months and be up nine grand or stuck three. So it's a lot better to make goals like, "I want to play XX tourneys in XX days." Cause you can just never be sure how much money you'll make, even if you're playing well.

Best of luck.

[multifast1]

[ QUOTE ]
...This would make my goal of $6k almost impossible to reach, but I have one last trick in my sleeve: MTTs. I want to play at least 1 MTT per day during this period. Variance is huge there, but it also opens the possibility of hitting a big score....

[/ QUOTE ]
You had a problem managing your bankroll before?? /images/graemlins/wink.gif Why not play the slots or roulette instead? They've got an even bigger payoput if you hit.. Oh wait.. the Lotto!! Ain't variance a biatch though -

Honestly, skip the MTT stuff unless it's part of your longterm plan, not a short term goal of the $6K. As for the BR question, why wait to move up to the 22s if you feel you can beat them now? Seriously? If you run cold and lose your bankroll are you going to stop playing? Probably not. I say you're throwing money away playing the 6s and 11s if you feel you have proven you can beat the 22s for %15 ROI. And your goal is to make X amount by X date, not to continue learning and get better at the lower levels so you can compete at the 22s (not saying you can crush the 22s, but you've stated YOU feel you can).

Best of luck reaching your goal!

[J-Lo]

i thought this thread would be about the extermination of the jews

[suited_ace]

Thx pergesu. I know you guys are right, but I just need something to shoot for, even if it's impossible.

[suited_ace]

MTTs are part of the long term plan. I might reconsider the whole 1 MTT / day thing, though.

Playing the $22s w/ the BR I have right now is just suicidal. Do a Monte Carlo simulation w/ my ROI and you'll see how common 10BI downsizings are.

[freemoney]

to be down any significant amount of money over 1600 SnGs means its pretty impossible you are a real winning player at the level.

[Slim Pickens]

I have a hard time believing such a small bankroll (in comparison to what you're trying to make) isn't easily replenishable. If it's not, I think you're goal of $6k is unobtainable. Plus, I think specific $$ goals are a bad idea from a psychological standpoint. My advice is to start at the 22's with 10 BI's and go on a heater for the first 100. If you don't, put in a few days digging sewer trenches and give poker another shot once you have another $200.

[multifast1]

[ QUOTE ]
MTTs are part of the long term plan. I might reconsider the whole 1 MTT / day thing, though.

Playing the $22s w/ the BR I have right now is just suicidal. Do a Monte Carlo simulation w/ my ROI and you'll see how common 10BI downsizings are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but how often do you have a 10BI downswing right off the bat?? You'll likely build a bigger BR before seeing one of those swings. Besides, is your current BR really your ONLY bankroll? If so, then OK but if you really are good enough to beat the 22s for 15% ROI, then you're pissing money away playing 6s and 11s (but definitely the 6s!!).

[multifast1]

[ QUOTE ]
i thought this thread would be about the extermination of the jews

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you think I took the time to read the whole thread?? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif j/k of course!