22$: crappy bubble spot with 99

[bjb23]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t2200)
Hero (t835)
BB (t288)
UTG (t4677)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
utg folds, button min raises to 300... hero...?

[mlagoo]

either call or fold. this isn't all that crappy.

call if you think the button is the type to check it down. fold if you think he'll try to bet you off your hand despite the bubble.

i'm pretty much never ever pushing here. is that bad?

[pineapple888]

I'm just playing for third here.

Problem is, if I play this hand, shorty should just fold, and I could easily bust out.

Fold anything but AA, KK, maybe QQ.

(If I think shorty's calling regardless of what I do, then I push.)

[bjb23]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just playing for third here.

Problem is, if I play this hand, shorty should just fold, and I could easily bust out.

Fold anything but AA, KK, maybe QQ.

(If I think shorty's calling regardless of what I do, then I push.)

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess i thought about this hand too much or something. if the guy would have pushed, then i would only being calling with AA,KK, but the dreaded min raise stumps me once again.

im pretty sure that IF i call AND the bb calls then the button would play nice and only bet a reasonable hand on the flop. however, IF i call and the bb folds to try and survive i think the button would scare me out on any flop.

the question is, i guess, what the bb should and will be calling with IF i call.

if i fold and shorty wins the hand (i think ~40% of the time would be a reasonable estimate) then it is a dogfight for 3rd and im not likely going to have a hand like 99 for the remainder, although i do have SOME fe for future pushes.

im also operating on the assumption that if i push, i have absolutely zero fe and shorty will fold if i push. so i dont think pushing is an option.

so call or fold?

im thinking i should call because of the chance that shorty will come along for the ride is decent and if not he will be severely crippled with less than 1bb.


i think i made this way too complicated. ugh.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
if i fold and shorty wins the hand (i think ~40% of the time would be a reasonable estimate) then it is a dogfight for 3rd

[/ QUOTE ]

So 60% to get ITM immediately, coin flip the remaining 40%, total is 80%. I'll take it.