SNG BR vs. Cashout Math Issue

Okay, I need to make some serious profit during the next 4 weeks. I have around a 300 dollar br, and will be using that to play $11 sng's. For a good player,

$11s = 25% ROI
$22s = 20% ROI

Now. I will be playing for 6-8 hours a day, 4 tabling (which those ROI's reflect). Since Im not going to assume Im a "good" player, we can safely assume that I will be making within a -5% range of the posted ROI's.

My question is this: to maximize profits, asap, would it be better to just run the 11's, and skim all profit past $330 br, or to get to $660 br by playing 11's and then skim the profit off of those.

Normally obviously I would just play up to the 22's, but I am looking at a time schedule of 4 weeks, within which I must make $1000. I understand that if extreme negative variance hits, this wont happen, but let's play the averages.

Thank you very much for your help.

[splashpot]

In general, playing with a required amount of profit is not a good idea, but I'm sure you know that. It depends on how catastrophic it is if you bust. If it's not that disasterous, just play 22s now. The sooner you get to the 22s, the faster you'll make money.

[Hendricks433]

if you play like 8 hours a day 4 tabling 5 days a week for 4 weeks. which you could easily get more in. Would be abouth 640 games could get in 650. 650 X 11 is $7150 invested so if you average say 15% ROI thats a profit of $1072. Working 8 hours a day 5 days a week. I think 15% ROI is easily attainable at this level also. 20% ROI is almost $1500 profit.

it is not super catastrophic if I bust, but due to real life variance, and randomness of [censored] happening all at the same time, I'd really rather avoid it.

So that's one vote for just using all the profits to hit the 22s?

K. Thanks for the input!

[Hendricks433]

I say go for the $11's and move up if you do well. You need a profit of $1000 in November? Are you just trying to build your br or do you need the $1000 for something?

[Slim Pickens]

A train leaves Santa Fe traveling east at 68 miles per hour. One hour later, the train that left Amarillo traveling west at 61 miles per hour is twice as far from the train leaving Santa Fe as the Santa Fe train is from Denver. How far is Denver from Amarillo assuming the planar angle between the lines connecting Amarillo and Santa Fe, and Santa Fe and Denver is pi/7. You may assume shperical geometry applies to the Earth's surface to simplify.

The point is I'll leave your question as an excercise for the reader.

[splashpot]

Math:

11 * (455 games)*(.2 ROI) = $1000 profit

11 * (150 games)*(.2 ROI) = $330 profit
22 * (203 games)*(.15 ROI) = $670 profit

So 455 games playing the 11s straight through. And 353 games playing the 11s til you hit $660 then 22s. Averages of course.

the point is you're padding your post count.


Yeah, Im just trying to find a good balance for profit skimming. I do need the larger portion of the 1000 for something, however I am in the frustrating postition of getting that 1000, taking it out back down to 300, and starting again.

it's one goddamn step forward, and one more back.

very frustrating.

[Hendricks433]

is $660 enough to 4 table the 22's? Im pretty cautious with moving up myself cause I cant totally afford to bust.

[ QUOTE ]
A train leaves Santa Fe traveling east at 68 miles per hour. One hour later, the train that left Amarillo traveling west at 61 miles per hour is twice as far from the train leaving Santa Fe as the Santa Fe train is from Denver. How far is Denver from Amarillo assuming the planar angle between the lines connecting Amarillo and Santa Fe, and Santa Fe and Denver is pi/7. You may assume shperical geometry applies to the Earth's surface to simplify.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this solvable, with the information given? I haven't touched math in 3.5 years and my HS education didnt cover "planar angles"... but I'm still damn curious /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[splashpot]

Assuming your play doesn't suffer when you add more tables, the number of tables you play should have no affect on your bankroll requirements. 30 buyins is acceptable for most people.

[1C5]

Should be but I have had a 26 OTM streak in the 22s. I was glad I had $3000 in my account and not $600.

Okay, well if anyone would be interested, I'll keep you posted on how well it works out.

My plan thus far is to play 11s till I hit 660, then grind out 8 hours a day, 6 days a week at 22s.

[bones]

If you *need* the money that badly and it's frustrating to have a diminished BR, put in some real hours. Play 50-60 a day (I know several on this board that have done that for long stretches) and put together some scratch quickly. If you average $2 per tourney, which is below your projected #s, you should be able to get the $1000 in around 9-10 days. What you choose to do with the remaining 20 days is a matter of personal preference. Some might take the 1k out immediately, others might move up to the 22s and try to build a solid br for the future.

Either way, if you *need* money, the best way to go about it is to actually put the hours in. It might not be fun, but oh well.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A train leaves Santa Fe traveling east at 68 miles per hour. One hour later, the train that left Amarillo traveling west at 61 miles per hour is twice as far from the train leaving Santa Fe as the Santa Fe train is from Denver. How far is Denver from Amarillo assuming the planar angle between the lines connecting Amarillo and Santa Fe, and Santa Fe and Denver is pi/7. You may assume shperical geometry applies to the Earth's surface to simplify.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this solvable, with the information given? I haven't touched math in 3.5 years and my HS education didnt cover "planar angles"... but I'm still damn curious /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

How the hell should I know if it can be solved? That's why it's an excercise for the reader. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

To the OP: Making bankroll decisions with specific profit figures in mind is a bad idea. Honestly, you might as well just start out at the 22's with 15 buy-ins if you HAVE to make $1k.

[Freudian]

I'd play the $11s until you have $600. If you drop below $400 while doing the $22s, go back down to the $11s.

Having the feeling that you have to show a profit in a short period of time sucks and a downswing feels much worse. Pay close attention to your mood. If you feel off balance at the $22s, you should either drop down to the $11s no matter what your BR is or take the day off. If you are somewhat tilt immune, ignore this last paragraph.

Im not tilt immune, no one is really, but I haven't let it affect my play in a very long time.

Honestly, I plan to not look at profits at 11s till I see a number around 600, and then not look at em again till I hit the end of my month.

Im really surprised at and grateful to all the helpful responses to this problem. I dont know if yall have experienced this before, Im sure you have, and it's unsettling.

So the final plan is in action: Im hitting the 11s, playing 10 sets a day, and then Im going to move to the 22s.