Llabb's Locks (NBA)

[llabb]

Alright, so I don't believe in locks, but it's a nice title anyway. I did fairly well in the NBA last year, particularly in the playoffs, but I didn't keep very good records. If I leave it simply to me and my buddy Excel again, I'll probably screw up this year's data too. So for added discipline and motivation, I'm going to keep track of my picks here, for all to enjoy or laugh at.

I rate my picks as 1 unit, 2 unit, or 3 unit wagers, since that's how I bet them. Average plays are 2 units, but I start the season at just 1 unit until I have a better feel for how teams have changed or see crazy lines. Juice will be taken out of unit wins/losses.

Wish me luck! Have a great NBA season all.

[llabb]

To kick off the season, I've taken the following all at 1 unit, from -107 to -110.

Milwaukee +6
Denver 1st half +4
Dallas -1
Sac/Dal Under 215
SA/Den Under 189

[ImNew]

gl... i'll post my bets too
Nov-1 NBA MILWAUKEE +7 -110 @5dimes ($5.5)
Nov-1 NBA ORLANDO +6 -110 @5dimes ($5.5)
Nov-1 NBA MEMPHIS +5 -110 @5dimes ($5.5)
Nov-1 NBA New Orleans +7.5 -107 @canbet ($5.35)
Nov-1 NBA Dallas Mavericks +2.5 -113 @matchbook ($5)
Nov-1 NBA Dallas Mavericks +2.5 +100 @matchbook ($5)
Nov-3 NBA Washington Wizards -1.5 -107 @canbet ($5)

[llabb]

YTD 3-2, +0.8 units

Nice night for most people last night, it seems. Thought I had 4-1, until Dallas-Phoenix went into not only overtime but also double OT. Anyway, full slate tonight. All picks 1 unit, unless otherwise noted.

Was -2
Ind -6.5
Ind/Orl U 189
Bos -3.5 2u
Mem -4.5
Dal -3 2u
Den -6.5
Tsr NJ -3.5 & Det -3 2u
Tsr Min -6 & Chi -4

[dankhank]

dal -3 1/2 unit
ytd 2-1 +.5

[llabb]

Added Dal/Uta U 190.5

[llabb]

Added Den/LAL 2nd half U 103.5

[llabb]

Yesterday 7-4 +1.6u
YTD 10-6 +2.4u

A decent start, but I'm a little ticked at myself for jumping the gun on some marginal games. I was a little overly excited, after waiting for the NBA so long. Sticking to the solid games only would have yielded 6-2, +3.8u last night, a whole 2.2 units more. While still playing 8 games, it's not like I wasn't getting any action already, lol.

And like others have mentioned, getting screwed by OT hurts even more than a normal loss, sucks to get rivered. I don't know the stats on this, but I gotta guess that 5 OT games (including 1 double OT) by the 2nd day of the season is unusual. Anyone know what % of games go into OT?

On to Thurs night, only 2 games, so they're easy to focus on, but the lines might be sharper. I'm already liking the Mia/Ind Under 186.5, will analyze more and post later.

[llabb]

I don't like televised games, particularly on days with really light schedules, but I like tonight's games so here we go.

Ind/Mia U 186.5 2u
Ind +5.5
Pho/LAL U 204
Pho +4

[Runner Runner]

[ QUOTE ]
Ind/Mia U 186.5 2u, Pho +4

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice ones, I missed the boat. The ship has left port, and so has the value. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like televised games, particularly on days with really light schedules, but I like tonight's games so here we go.

Ind/Mia U 186.5 2u
Ind +5.5
Pho/LAL U 204
Pho +4

[/ QUOTE ]

out of these the only one i took was PHO +4, but then again I don't like to take a ton of games. so far 4-3 +2.9 units

[llabb]

After more research, I decided I liked the games enough to bump the plays slightly, but I didn't want to make everything 2 units already. So I just took the following small additions:

0.5u Parlay Ind +5.5, U 185.5, Pho +3.5, U 203
0.5u Teaser Ind +10, U 192.5, Pho 8

[llabb]

Right on the sides, way wrong on the totals.

Will try to compensate, risky, but taking Pho/LAL 2nd half O 103 2u. This game is a total track meet.

[20Five]

i did the same thing, was under on the 203, had to go over 103 on the 2h total, no defense at all by the lakers.. easy over.. wish i would have doubled my original bet on the 2h play but oh well, still a winning night /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[llabb]

Last night 3-3, -0.4u
YTD 13-9, +2u

Fun games. Surprised that Miami couldn't play a lick of D in the first half. They're gonna need some work. When I can watch the games at night, these 2nd half totals have been pretty profitable. Good for correcting mistakes I've made, at least. Full slate tomorrow, time to get cracking.

[llabb]

NJ -4.5
NJ/Tor O 193
Mem -2.5
Mem/Orl O 181 2u
Det/Bos O 187 2u
SA -7 2u
Phi -8 2u

[llabb]

Added Det -3 2u

[llabb]

Like the late line moves. Using the Phi move as an excuse to take a teaser. Runner's Utah could look very good, all depends on Baron' status. Line going down on O/U there as well. If Baron does play, will likely make a strong play on the 2nd half O.

Teaser Phi -2.5 Det +0.5 SA -3
Parlay Phi -7 Det +4 SA -7.5 0.5u

[llabb]

Last night: 4-5 -4.5u
YTD 17-14 -2.5u

Regular plays pushed, but I got crushed because somehow it was the 1u plays that won and the 2u plays that lost. Go figure. Time to get back on track, stick to a unit across the board.

Pho -2
Hou/NOK U 184.5
SA/Dal U 192

Looking at Cha, Was, and SA, will wait for morning line moves.

[llabb]

SA/Dal O 187 0.5u
Hou/NOK O 178.5 0.5u

Had some big lines moves in my direction resulting in some huge middle opportunities, 5 pts on the SA/Dal total and 6 pts on the Hou/NOK total. Will buyback half a unit on each to shoot for the middle, wish I had taken 2 units on those last night now, lol. Taking the other plays I was looking at as well.

Was -8
SA -1
Cha -0.5
Was/Orl O 188

Still looking at some big favs that should crush their opponents, Det, Hou, Ind, but the lines pretty high.

[llabb]

Does anyone have any experience comparing full game lines to 1st half lines, for heavy favorites?

I think Hou/Ind/Det kill NOK/Phi/Tor respectively, but the lines are in the 11-12 zone, and I'm thinking about taking the 1st half lines instead, to negate the possibility of a back door cover in an early blowout.

Example: last night's NJ/Tor game where NJ absolutely torched them, up by 17 at halftime, and Tor didn't make a comeback until 4th Q where they cut the lead by 9 with the scrubs in the game and NJ taking it easy.

So the 1st half line has obvious benefit for that reason, but the books compensate by not giving you half the full game spread, and instead tacking on an extra half-point to full point on the fav.

Anyone have any thoughts on this in general? Or, more specifically, I'm thinking about taking:

Hou -6.5 1st half vs -12 full game
Ind -6 1st half vs -10.5 full game
Det -11 1st half vs -11 full game

[llabb]

Last night: 4-2-1, +1.8u
YTD 21-16, -0.7u

Time to get rollin' again!

[llabb]

Pho -3.5

[llabb]

Last night: 0-1, -1.1u
YTD 21-17, -1.8u

Mia -3 2u
SA -6

[llabb]

Added Cle and another unit on SA with the benefit of the line move.

Cle 1st half -3
SA -4

[llabb]

Early Tues games:

GS/Mil Over 201.5 2u
LAL -5.5

[llabb]

Uta/Cha 2ndH U 95 2u
Mia/NJ 2ndH O 101 2u

[llabb]

LAC/Min 2ndH O 91.5 2u

[llabb]

YTD 29-22 -1.4u

Wed. night:
Sac +7.5 2u
Orl/NOK O 170 2u
GSW +5.5 2u
LAC +4.5
Uta +8.5

[llabb]

SA Game -7.5 2ndH -4.5
Dal -4
NY +1.5
Ind -5.5
Small ML's on above dogs

[llabb]

LAC/Was 2H O 93 2u

[llabb]

Sea 2H +0.5

[llabb]

Mem/Bos 2H U 93

[llabb]

Por/NY 2H O 88
Por 2H -2
Parlay both plays

[llabb]

Sac/Den 2H O 104

[llabb]

Thurs big picks, thinking the lines will move by am.

LAC -3 3u
Mia -5 3u

[llabb]

Wed was good night, 10-7. Will calculate juice and units later. Finishing Thursday's card. Line moves have already started on LAC and Mia. High unit night for me tomorrow.

Det -1.5 2u

[ QUOTE ]
Thurs big picks, thinking the lines will move by am.

LAC -3 3u
Mia -5 3u

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm kind of scared that the Clippers may be tired out from that overtime game tonight. Still confident? I need a lock, I'm having a horrific week.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thurs big picks, thinking the lines will move by am.

LAC -3 3u
Mia -5 3u

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm kind of scared that the Clippers may be tired out from that overtime game tonight. Still confident? I need a lock, I'm having a horrific week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure the Clippers game went to OT? I don't think that it did.

[llabb]

YTD 39-29 +1.1u

Clippers game last night did not go to OT. Clippers killed Atlanta last week, but Atl did not have Harrington, who is back now. Still, Lakers killed Atl Tues night, final score closer than game was b/c clock was turned off and Lakers starters out at end of game. Clippers also just got Maggette back, who had a great first game back, 20, 6 & 3 in only 23 min off the bench.

Like I said in my first post, I don't believe in locks, although I am high on tonight's games. Something smells fishy, though, Clippers at -3 seems like a trap game. Perhaps myself and others are underrating Harrington, whose return is probably not widely noted, and people just think of Atl as being horrible. Even with Harrington back, though, Clips' front line should kill Atl's. Brand >>> Harrington.

Take caution with my units, though, since every game I play for more than a unit seems to get crushed. Have a pretty solid record so far at 39-29, but only up a stinking unit b/c I seem to lose all my 2u games.

[llabb]

If you are worried about tiredness on the road, the Clips -2 for 1st half should also be a solid wager.

[llabb]

Last night: 2-1 +1.6u
YTD: 41-30 +2.7u

Well, Clip game was solid. Pretty much all games went as expected, except for some late bumbling by Miami when they had the cover in hand for the last minute, then botched it. Tomorrow night a full slate of games, still looking at them, but perhaps not playing very many. I play too many games anyway.

[llabb]

Det -6.5
Was -5
Cha +5.5
Parlay SA ML & Ind ML

[llabb]

Last night: 2-2 -0.2u
YTD: 43-32 +2.5u

Big card tomorrow night. Some early lines, probably Indy and Utah, are likely to move.

Uta +6.5 2u
Uta ML +248
Ind -1 2u
Mia -8
Mem/Atl U 194 2u
Ind/Mil U 208

[llabb]

Last night: 4-2 +2.9u
YTD: 47-34 +5.4u

Min +6
Sac -7
Sea -3
Cle/Orl O 181
NY/Sac O 185.5

[llabb]

Sea/Tor 2H O 100

[llabb]

Last night: 4-2 +1.8u
YTD: 51-36 +7.2u

[llabb]

GS -4.5
NY +4
Chi/GS O 191.5

I posted to Runner before about not taking the Knicks until they turn the corner. Perhaps they did so last night against Sac. I'm not banking on it, but we'll see. Taking them tonight is more a fade against Utah than a play on NY.

Utah w/o AK or Boozer, and with Deron and Harpring being doubtful or gimpy? Jerry Sloan is great, but do they have any talent playing tonight whatsoever, other than Okur, who is a marginal player but has become a statistical stud due to a lack of anyone else decent on the team?

I think if Utah was a more public team and their injuries were a bigger story, the line would be way different. If it were a decent team playing them, this would probably be a 2u or even 3u play, but since it's still NY on the road, it's just 1u.

[llabb]

GS 1H -2
NY 1H +2

[llabb]

Early Tues plays:

Was +6 2u
Mil/LAC O 205.5
Hou/Min U 179

[llabb]

LAL 2H pk
LAL/Mem U 191.5

[llabb]

NY/Uta 2H U 87.5

[llabb]

LAL/Mem post should read:

LAL/Mem 2H U 91.5 for the halftime total, messed it up a little in my haste. Either way, it should be a split. What happened to the Lakers tonight? Are they even playing, or did a college women's team take their place? I can't tell.

[aLOWdAkING]

What do you think about Boston +9. They took Detroit earlier in this year to a very close game and lost on a buzzer beater, but this time it's in Detroit. Any thoughts they will still match up well?

enjoying your picks, and you seem to be one of the few people on free pick sites that is doing well.

what do you think about toronto +10 @ philadelphia?? raptors have been absolutely horrendous (i had a thread about pounding raptors and it's proven to work 100% since opening night i believe)... however, in our OT loss to seattle, i think we came up with some combinations and styles that really seemed to click (basically 2 PG system with calderon/james together. villaneuva, bosh, mo pete all very athletic. so it might really click).. i think i see a point spread swing on raptors coming.

two of the worst defenses in NBA. we are absolutely awful.

[llabb]

Last night: 6-1 +4.9u
YTD: 57-37 +12.1u

Finally a great night! Already have 3 plays for today posted yesterday, also looking at some others. Should have taken Sac when they were just -7.5 against Utah, since I wanted to fade Utah anyway. Line's moved big already though. Also a little scared of Sac, who has been horrible this season. May play it anyway just because Utah is so bad right now. Debating that and a couple others.

[llabb]

Thanks for the words. There'll probably be a let down after a good night last night, but hopefully things are starting to look up for the season.

Your Toronto thread was great, with them being 0-6 ATS. They suck. That being said, they did give Seattle a good run for their money (although Sea sucks too), and lines may be inflated against them. 10+ is a lot of points, and they could well cover. I'm not impressed by Phi, but they have won their last 4 against some pretty good competition. So I'm not going to try and catch a falling knife with Tor. Whatever happens tonight should give a good read for tomorrow when they face each other again anway.

As for Boston, I think they get killed tonight, but I don't think I'm playing it at the high line set. I think the close game last time was just a normal case of good teams having a tougher time on the road. Det also only beat Portland by 3 on the road. But at home, they dominate. I can't see them shooting under 40% again while letting Pierce go off for more than 50%.

All just one person's opinion.

[llabb]

Took Sac -9. Would have been 2u at -7, only 1u at -9.

[llabb]

Sac 1H -5

[ QUOTE ]
Last night: 6-1 +4.9u
YTD: 57-37 +12.1u

Finally a great night! Already have 3 plays for today posted yesterday, also looking at some others. Should have taken Sac when they were just -7.5 against Utah, since I wanted to fade Utah anyway. Line's moved big already though. Also a little scared of Sac, who has been horrible this season. May play it anyway just because Utah is so bad right now. Debating that and a couple others.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well done so far, Llaab. Considering Utah shot 29% from the field last night, don't you think they're a much better team, relatively speaking, than the 73-62 loss indicated? Sac giving 10-10.5, I just don't know.

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
Considering Utah shot 29% from the field last night, don't you think they're a much better team, relatively speaking, than the 73-62 loss indicated?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not really. The defense will be there, as it's a Jerry Sloan team, but they have no offense. Last night the Jazz started Milt Palacio, Andre Owens, Matt Harpring, Mehmet Okur, and Greg Ostertag. That is worse than many NBA 2nd units. Most NBA fans don't even know who those players are. Harpring's not even supposed to play tonight b/c he shouldn't play back-to-backs yet, so I don't even know who they're going to start.

AK, Boozer, and Giricek all not playing, and McLeod and Deron gimpy. This team is absolutely horrible. The only thing they have going for them is Jerry Sloan and an overreaching Okur, who they're depending on since they have no one else.

That said, Sacramento has been putrid as well, so there's always a chance Utah covers. That's why I should have taken it at -7 last night, and am just playing 1u on the full game, 1u on the 1st half, for the lower spread.

[llabb]

2 more 1st halves, since I like the big favs but don't want to lay so many points, or risk the underdog back door covers. Also taking some fun plays instead of making others 2u. Risky, but still solid imo, and the bankroll can support a few longshots from prior wins.

Det 1H -5
Mia 1H -5

Teaser for +180 Was +11.5, Det -4, Mia -4.5
ML Parlay for +105 Phi, Det, Sac, Mia all 4 ML's
1H Parlay for +585 Det -5, Mia -5, Sac -5 all 1st halves

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Considering Utah shot 29% from the field last night, don't you think they're a much better team, relatively speaking, than the 73-62 loss indicated?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not really. The defense will be there, as it's a Jerry Sloan team, but they have no offense. Last night the Jazz started Milt Palacio, Andre Owens, Matt Harpring, Mehmet Okur, and Greg Ostertag. That is worse than many NBA 2nd units. Most NBA fans don't even know who those players are. Harpring's not even supposed to play tonight b/c he shouldn't play back-to-backs yet, so I don't even know who they're going to start.

AK, Boozer, and Giricek all not playing, and McLeod and Deron gimpy. This team is absolutely horrible. The only thing they have going for them is Jerry Sloan and an overreaching Okur, who they're depending on since they have no one else.

That said, Sacramento has been putrid as well, so there's always a chance Utah covers. That's why I should have taken it at -7 last night, and am just playing 1u on the full game, 1u on the 1st half, for the lower spread.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand but these men, while 2nd team type players, are professionals and even the worst offensive-minded professionals have a hard time repeating a 29% shooting performance.

[llabb]

Looking like a good call on Boston, Low. I thought it would go the other way, that Det would pound them. They contained Pierce, but somehow let Ricky Davis go off for 22 pts, 77% shooting in the first half? Too much focus on stopping PP, I guess.

Looks like some bad late plays by me today.

[llabb]

Det/Bos 2H U 94

Pistons adjust their D, Ricky Davis does not go 10-for-13 again, and Boston cannot keep shooting 67%...can they?

[llabb]

Horrible, horrible night so far.

SA/Atl 2H U 93
Dal/Den 2H U 99

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Horrible, horrible night so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not trying to be a jerk, but what do you expect when you place so many bets in one night? I don't think it is possible for you to win if you are placing so many bets.

craig

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Horrible, horrible night so far.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am not trying to be a jerk, but what do you expect when you place so many bets in one night? I don't think it is possible for you to win if you are placing so many bets.
craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, no offense taken. I agree that I probably do play too many games, as I've stated myself above.

To answer the question, I expect to have more variance, but to win more overall in the long run. I expect to have horrible nights, and also to have wonderful nights. That is the magic of variance, which increases as I play more games, and as my edge gets smaller.

I could reduce the number of games played, but I still think I have a +EV edge on all the plays I make, sufficient to cover juice and make at least a small profit. If anyone feels otherwise on the plays I am making, I would love to hear other viewpoints on the individual matches being handicapped.

I think this is about how many games I played last year, and I was a net winner last season. How much I'm not sure, which is why I created this thread for this season. As I said in my initial post, I'm curious as to how well I'm doing, and need additional discipline and motivation to keep better track. This thread, and any comments people can give me, will help me do that.

If you do not think I can be a net winner playing this number of games, I am very interested to hear the reasons. Whether you do not think that the games I am taking have enough edge to cover the juice, whether you think my variance will be too high and cripple me, or whether you think I just plain suck as a capper.

For variance analysis, 1 unit for me is 1% of my bankroll, which I think is sufficient to cover downswings (assuming I'm a net winner). If anyone thinks I am not betting an appopriate amount of my bankroll, I would be happy to hear what the appropriate amount should be.

Or if you think that by limiting my # of games played to the top ones in my mind, but betting more per game would increase my overall winnings, I would be interested in that opinion as well. Although this season, my "better" plays have sucked, and my normal plays been pretty good, so that strategy would have hurt me so far.

In any case, this thread is both for discipline and to make me better as a capper, so thanks in advance to any and all for your opinions and advice.

[sage]

Llabb is having a hell of a run, hitting 65% of his posted plays. Where do you get off telling him it's not possible to be a winner when he posts that number of plays? I think you're totally out of line again, which does not seem to be uncommon for you. Kudos on your selection thus far Llabb. Good Luck.

it's not like he was betting on every single line. there were about 100 NBA different possible lines today, he picked like 10? doesn't seem like he was over doing it.

plus, wouldn't it be -EV to pass on a line that you think is +EV?

keep posting. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Llabb is having a hell of a run, hitting 65% of his posted plays. Where do you get off telling him it's not possible to be a winner when he posts that number of plays? I think you're totally out of line again, which does not seem to be uncommon for you. Kudos on your selection thus far Llabb. Good Luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Out of line, again". Where have I been out of line before. And if you notice, Llabb didn't seem to take any offense. In fact, he asked why I thought that. I also prefaced it with that it wasn't a personal attack.

But, you said it best, "having a hell of a run". Do you honestly think that he will be able to keep that up betting as many games as he does? If you do, we can place a wager on that as well.

craig

[craig r]

Hey Llaabb,

So, I guess now that somebody thinks that my original statement to you was a personal attack (which I know you didn't), I should answer some of your questions.

One positive thing that you are doing is only betting 1% of your bankroll per game. If you have that type of discipline, that is great. That will definitely keep you from going broke if you are a winning bettor. Since you don't know how much of a winning bettor you are, I wouldn't make adjustments; i.e. use a Kelly strategy or wager more based on the EV you have. I think using a weighted strategy is good if know how much EV each play is. But, for right now, I would just bet 1%.

I don't know if you can beat the juice, because I don't know what you are laying. Obviously if you are laying -104, you don't have to win nearly the same % as if you are laying -110.

Also, if you are betting a lot of games, you want to get the best possible line. Dougozzzz and I were doing some analysis tonight, and it is amazing how much 1 point makes a difference and cuts into the % you will win, lose, or push. So, if the line opened at -3 and then moved to -4, I would probably lay off of it. Sure, sometimes you will kick yourself afterwards for the pointspread not really mattering, but hindsight is always 20/20, because you will also curse yourself if you bet it at -4 and the team only won by 3 (I wouldn't worry about betting a worse number about 1.5 points off from the opening line on big spreads).

Just so you know, this season I have placed (these are not my own plays) 29 NBA bets with a record of 18-10-1. This gives me approx. 64%. I don't believe there is anyway for me to keep this up, no matter how much line shopping I do. But, with reduced juice, I will lose much less on my losses.

This may not be you, but usually when I see somebody betting a lot of 2Hs on the same side that they bet the game, it means they are steaming. I see you do this a lot. Once again, I could be wrong, and it might be what you think is a good calculated bet.

Also, as far as you asking why I don't think it is possible for someone to win placing as many bets as you do, it is because I have never seen anybody do it. The lines are just too "sharp" for this too be possible.

Also, somebody had mentioned that you bet 10 plays out of 100 possible plays. If you take out the quarter bets (which I can't remember if you bet or not) then there were a total of 66 bets today (assuming you don't bet both sides). 10/66 is quite a bit.

craig

[llabb]

Last night: 5-8
YTD: 62-45

Bad night evens out the previous good night, will calculate juice later. Thanks to all for the words, both the encouragement and constructive criticism. Will get to that later, just posting plays for now.

Ind -8
Phi -5
Phi/Tor U 207
Bos -5.5
LAL -5
LAL/NYK U 181
Mil +7
Den/NOK O 185

llabb's, i know you're already going this way, but isn't philly at toronto an absolute lock tonight... philly is best road team in league by teamrankings.com, toronto is the worst home and worst team by miles.

my comment about new look raptors was premature. no matter what, our defense stinks. philly was looking at one point to score 40 in first quarter last night. tonight is the return and AI is such a road-warrior.

you are going to hear huge buzz about how well villaneuva and bosh play together, but it doesn't matter. they aren't going to win us any games. or anything, just put up big scoring/rebounding #'s ala antwaan when he was in GSW.

spread is at a level 4.5, where raptors can't really cover in garbage time, 7 or 8 would be another story.

[llabb]

Few more:

Mil/GS O 204.5
Pho -5
Bos 1H -3
Ind 1H -4.5

[llabb]

Sorry, didn't get back here until now, and that game started a short while ago. You've been absolutely right about how horrible Toronto is, though, and I imagine you've profited nicely off of it.

I agree with your points, and Philly is already off to a huge 13 pt lead.

It would have been a 2u play, except that I think there's more risk with the teams playing each other back-to-back directly, and going to the other team's home court. There's some satisfaction for Philly in the nice win they just had, and while they should still win tonight, there's probably less fire than last night. And as much as I'd like there to be, there's never such a thing as an absolute lock. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[llabb]

Early Thurs:

Hou/SA U 176.5

[llabb]

Phi/Tor 2H U 102.5

1st Q was crazy, both sides shooting 75% and 100% from 3. 2nd Q more normal now, and 2H should go under if last night's game is any indication, unless they can stay on fire over 50% the entire game.

[llabb]

Sea/Bos 2H U 102

Another game that should come back to earth.

[llabb]

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and break! Feeling refreshed after a nice vacation, and ready to get back to capping. Have cleared my head after some bad losses, and am ready to buckle down and get more serious. Will try to limit my games a little more, as others have suggested (although I'll still probably be playing too many games for most), and will cut out most 2H plays.

Going to focus on improving, then stepping up units. Thinking about taking slightly worse lines in some spots, in order to get positive odds. For example, I will usually buy the half-point for 5 cents or less, and may "sell" the half points at 9 cents or more. Taking a line that is 1 pt worse will usually result in a +103 to +110 line, which I think may help my units wins more than the point does. Has anyone ever tried this?

Best wishes to all.

[llabb]

YTD 66-56, but flat on units due to juice and bad 2u plays.

Monday night games, will try the +odds strategy, see how it goes.

Mia -9 +118
NO +8 +106

llabb, welcome back (thought we'd lost you).

don't have lines in front of me. but looking at playing

toronto +8 vs. dallas (we'll want to make up for disaster @ GSW saturday, and i think we've achieved competence at home)

NJN +9 @ denver.... i think that's what i saw, although my #1 book doesn't have it up yet. anyhow, i know tired NJN and denver great at home, but that's alot of points.

apologize if those spreads are incorrect.

[ QUOTE ]
llabb, welcome back (thought we'd lost you).

don't have lines in front of me. but looking at playing

toronto +8 vs. dallas (we'll want to make up for disaster @ GSW saturday, and i think we've achieved competence at home)

NJN +9 @ denver.... i think that's what i saw, although my #1 book doesn't have it up yet. anyhow, i know tired NJN and denver great at home, but that's alot of points.

apologize if those spreads are incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]
sm, agree with the toronto pick. Toronto has been playing much better and 8 is just too many points.

[llabb]

Sorry, didn't check back here in time to see this. Hope you enjoyed the winners on both games you were looking at anyway! I probably would have said that I like the Toronto game, but not the NJ game. Denver is good at home, and NJ sucks on the road. Even after the match, I think if Carmelo had played, Den would have won that one.

Anyway, hope that capping is treating you well. Am posting Tues games now, but will check back during the day tomorrow.

[llabb]

Last night: 1-1, +0.2u
YTD: 67-57, +0.2u

Nice to be up a tiny amount instead of down a tiny amount even when you go 1-1. I'm liking this approach, and will take the + odds when a half point is at 10 cents or more, even though I hate losing the points.

Tues games:

Phi -9 +102
Orl +7 +125

LAC/Min U 187 +102
Ind/Uta U 179 +103

Had to grit my teeth on that Orl one, since the scared side of me prefers the +8, and it's even on the positive side at +104. But the +125 looks too good to me for just 1 point. Maybe I'm just a sucker. We'll see.

[llabb]

Like a couple more games tonight.

Atl +8 +107
Cha +7 +105

Phi/Por AH O 97.5 -110
Atl/Hou U 176 +100

Getting too many points on these live dogs. Cha pretty good since Gerald Wallace returned. For Atl/Hou, T-Mac still iffy. If he plays, line is fair, if not, that is a huge amount of points for a horrible Hou team.

Phi is a scoring machine, line is usually around 200+, but Por is awful. Taking the chance of a blowout and therefore low-scoring 4th Q out of the equation by taking the 1st H Over. Atl/Hou low scoring teams, and as mentioned earlier, if T-Mac does not play, this is a great line, and still okay even if he does.

Also like a small amount on the ML's for the dogs posted above, as well as LAC and Utah, but these are small fun plays and am not counting them for record.

[llabb]

Early Wed:

Det -5 +119
NOK +8 +101

Think Det matches up well here, able to contain NJ's Big 3, while dominating them down low. -4 is too little IMO, even on NJ's home court. Continuing my +odds strategy because +119 looks pretty good to me for the extra point.

NOK has been solid this year, with Chris Paul and David West stepping up. Overall record pretty close to Denver in fact. Denver good at home, but laying way too many points with Melo out. +8.5 looks solid for NOK to me, again giving a little bit on the line to get +odds though.

[llabb]

Not playing this for record, just small plays for myself. Phi/Por is a track meet, only had low 1Q b/c Phi couldn't buy a bucket shooting under 35%. Pace should continue.

Phi/Por 2H O 94

[llabb]

Last night: 4-4, +0.1u
YTD: 71-61, +0.2u

Was 1H -6 +102
Ind +2 +113
Sac +5 +105
Cha +6 +107
Chi +1 +102

In most cases, taking the better team while on the road but getting points.

[llabb]

Not much action tomorrow. I gave SA -3 and Uta -3, and they both opened at -2.5. If Uta was giving any more points, LAL would be a possibility, but both teams are awful. Only Thurs play for now:

LAL/Uta U 176 +103 2u

Both teams are awful, and both records have some real stinkers in them in the 150's and 160's. Playing against each other, this just looks nasty. And in Utah, with them dictating the pace, it should be Jerry Sloan slow-it-down ball. Giricek likely out for another game loses some of the little O Uta has, while AK back will bring blocks and defense, but not add a ton to offense. Kobe a bricklayer this season against decent D's, and he hogs all the shots. Uta allows the fewest shot attempts in the league, and out of shots taken, both teams suck at 41%.

Like the play, but my 2u's have sucked, so tread lightly.

[llabb]

Last night: 2-5 -2.8u
YTD: 73-66 -2.6u

Bad picks and regression to the mean both hurting me, coming back down towards 50% and horrible recently. The last couple days, my intital impressions with overnight plays were solid, going 3-1 on Tues and 2-0 on Wed, and then the followup plays on gameday were terrible, going 1-3 on Tues and 0-5 on Wed. Perhaps I should limit myself to initial strong plays on overnights, while I work through this bad stretch.

Anyway, the LAL/Uta U was taken last night, so I'll stick with that as my only side or total for the day.

Off the record, it's a light day, and I took a flyer on a couple WSEX player props, Terry +3.5 against Parker and Okur +1.5 against Odom. -115 is a lot of juice, but these lines look pretty soft. Terry is taking a lot more shots than normal and scoring a ton with Josh Howard out. Odom is streaky, is more of a passer in the Lakers scheme anyway, and goes up against a tough Utah defense, guarded by shot-blocking monster AK.

[llabb]

Early Fri plays. Have a number of them, but my own lines are several points off from these. These are all my intitial impressions, so these should be solid, as I'm not talking myself into games here. That will come tomorrow, when I have to resist taking more.

Tor +3 +109
Bos -2 +115
NOK +2 +107
Cle -4 +100
Min -2 +106

[llabb]

Fri totals:

Tor/Atl U 193 +100
Orl/Mem U 172 +104
Cle/Sea O 203.5 +103

Also like Det to blow out NY, but at -12, do not want the back door cover risk. Game could easily be a Det win in the high teens the whole game, then only win by 10. NY sucks, but their bench is competitive towards the end of games, since the rookies still have energy and everyone is fighting for a starting spot, with Larry jumbling the roster around on a regular basis. Therefore will look at Det 1H line tomorrow.

[llabb]

I lean Dallas +1 and U 94.5 in the 2nd half, but am not counting it, since I should stay away from 2nd halves.

hey llabb i like how u pick can u give me a nice 6team parlay to bet on? dont worry if it loses

do you think me betting on Cavs +3.5 was good?
YES GETTIN 3.5 WSEX had a mistake so i bet big on CAVS +3.5

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
hey llabb i like how u pick can u give me a nice 6team parlay to bet on? dont worry if it loses

[/ QUOTE ]
Lol, I've been horrible lately. If you're serious, thanks. If you're sarcastic, yes, I suck so far.

If you've got the rocks to bet a 6-team parlay, I'm sure you know they always lose, but it's always fun to play the lottery once in a while. Above, I have 5 picks I like for the sides for today. Add in Det, and presto, 6 picks to lose a parlay with!

[ QUOTE ]
do you think me betting on Cavs +3.5 was good?
YES GETTIN 3.5 WSEX had a mistake so i bet big on CAVS +3.5

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, you really lucked out. Great bet, did WSEX let you keep it?

YEA
CLEVELAND +3.5 Unsettled
B 29 12/2 CLEVELAND AT SEATTLE

[llabb]

Last night: 0-1 -2u
YTD: 73-67 -4.6u

Huge card tonight, already taken last night. One more play mentioned earlier, will now take:

Det 1H -6

[llabb]

Nice bet. A lot of books will cancel the wager, citing obviously incorrect lines. Hope it cashes for you (and covers the -4 as well)!

[llabb]

I lean, but am not taking for the record:

Pho 1H -3.5
Sac -3
Cha/GS U 197.5

i am shook hope my big bet Cavs +3.5 wins

so gay im pissed please gimme a 3 team parlay for tomorrow